203 Castleton Ct · Lawrenceville, NJ 08534

$155,376

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 940 sqft · Townhouse public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1994 $165/sqft · 6% below area Est $166k · 6% under $295/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming 2-bedroom condo in Brandon Farms presents an excellent opportunity for "Moderate-Income housing". It features a bright and open floor plan, including a spacious eat-in kitchen, separate dining area, and a welcoming living room. Ample storage is available with multiple closets, and the convenience of in-unit laundry enhances its appeal. For approval and additional details, please contact PCH. Residents will enjoy amenities such as a pool, playground, tennis courts, as well as biking and walking paths, all within a top-rated school district. Its proximity to major highways adds to the convenience.

Key facts

• In-unit laundry
• Tennis courts
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• IN-UNIT LAUNDRY
• POOL
• PLAYGROUND
• TENNIS COURTS
• BIKING AND WALKING PATHS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $578 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 2.3% in Lawrenceville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#75 in NJ, #1,775 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Hopewell Valley Regional School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #72 of 472 in NJ (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 2% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.2%/yr); 138 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($176k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $119k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,053 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.94%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,066
• List price: $155,376
• Delta: -6.44%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $4,629
• Equity at exit: $23,167

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $24,408
• Equity at exit: $13,434

Cash invested: $43,505 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08534

• Home prices YoY: -32.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.2%
• Active inventory: 138
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,464 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$815
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$194 /mo · $2,331/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$295
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $578

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,733

Max offer price $155,376

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,844
• Closing costs: $4,661
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
725 Denow Rd Pennington, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	747	$1,635	$2.19	1d	1	0.52mi
100 Forge Cir Pennington, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1086	$3,493	$3.21	2d	20	0.87mi
917 Sturwood Way Lawrence Township, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1138	$2,295	$2.02	13d	4	1.05mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $295 · $3,540/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $155,376 Pending 61 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $155,376 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $155,376 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-03-31
   listed $155,376 Active 626-char remark

   Show marketing remark (626 chars)

   This charming 2-bedroom condo in Brandon Farms presents an excellent opportunity for "Moderate-Income housing". It features a bright and open floor plan, including a spacious eat-in kitchen, separate dining area, and a welcoming living room. Ample storage is available with multiple closets, and the convenience of in-unit laundry enhances its appeal. For approval and additional details, please contact PCH. Residents will enjoy amenities such as a pool, playground, tennis courts, as well as biking and walking paths, all within a top-rated school district. Its proximity to major highways adds to the convenience.

5. 2025-12-04
   historical
6. 2025-08-12
   listed $155,376 Active
7. 2019-02-28
   soldstatus $119,000 Closed
8. 2019-02-28
   soldstatus $119,000 Sold
9. 2019-01-19
   historical
10. 2019-01-19
    status Pending
11. 2018-06-30
    price $126,000
12. 2018-06-30
    price $126,000
13. 2018-02-05
    listed $118,000 Active
14. 2018-02-05
    listed $118,000 Active
15. 2014-10-06
    soldstatus $118,000
16. 2014-09-02
    historical
17. 2014-06-09
    listed $119,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,570
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,703
• − Property taxes: −$2,331
• − Insurance: −$777
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,366
• − Management: −$2,366
• − HOA: −$3,540
• − Depreciation: −$4,520
• Taxable income: $4,968
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,192
• After-tax cash flow: $5,743/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hopewell Valley Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3407530
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $126,131
• Composite: 52.03/100
• National rank: #1636
• State rank: #72 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Lawrenceville

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #75
• US rank: #1775

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Mercer County · 327,655 people
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 13,272
• Household income: $175,573
• Rent vs Own: 11.8% rent · 88.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 160.0

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,395 people
• By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Asian 18% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Chinese 5% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.16%
• Current HPI: 234.5759
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.25%
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+29.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $155,376 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-04 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-12 Listed $155,376 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-02-28 Sold (MLS) $119,000 GSMLS
• 2019-02-28 Sold (MLS) $119,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-01-19 Delisted — GSMLS
• 2019-01-19 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-06-30 Price Changed $126,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-06-30 Price Changed $126,000 GSMLS
• 2018-02-05 Listed $118,000 GSMLS
• 2018-02-05 Listed $118,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-10-06 Sold (MLS) $118,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-09-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-06-09 Listed $119,900 BRIGHT MLS