2425 Longspur Dr · Fort Worth, TX 76008

$379,999

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,825 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 85 Days on market

Built 2021 2,744 sqft lot $208/sqft · 18% below area Est $464k · 18% under $375/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for your dream home in Aledo ISD, nestled in the ultimate luxury and convenience of Walsh Ranch? Look no further! This stunning upgraded 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home is designed for both comfort and style. The upgrades are endless, featuring custom built-in cabinetry, designer wallpaper, modern accent walls, and a truly one-of-a-kind owner's suite. The suite serves as a peaceful retreat, complete with an ensuite bathroom featuring a relaxing soaking tub, an oversized walk-in closet with built-in drawers, and elegant finishes. Step outside to a low-maintenance backyard with artificial turf and custom stonework, perfect for enjoying those cool spring nights. Located in the highly sought-after Walsh Ranch community, this home offers access to resort-style amenities, including neighborhood pools, ponds, scenic trails, a state-of-the-art fitness center, a grocery store, and more. Experience luxury living at its finest—because in Aledo, it’s always a great day to be a Bearcat!

Key facts

• Soaking tub
• Designer wallpaper
• Owner's suite

Tags

• CUSTOM BUILT-IN CABINETRY
• DESIGNER WALLPAPER
• MODERN ACCENT WALLS
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• SOAKING TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $380k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-802 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (37.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $322k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (37.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Aledo ISD (rural): math 66% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #11 of 826 in TX (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mccall El (math 60% / reading 64%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 570 students, 15% FRL); Aledo Middle (math 69% / reading 72%, grade A, #57 of 1,662 statewide, top 3%, 944 students, 11% FRL); Aledo H S (math 87% / reading 50%, grade B, #147 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 1,622 students, 14% FRL) — zoned schools at 13% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 825 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 437 units permitted in Parker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Parker County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($357k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 10757% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $238,324 (37.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.05%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $464,164
• List price: $379,999
• Delta: -18.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14433 Balmoral Pl	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,938 (+6%)	11mo	$450,000	$232	63
14229 Walsh Ave	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,992 (+9%)	12mo	$459,900	$231	59
2032 Barbette St	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,938 (+6%)	12mo	$425,000	$219	58
2024 Tolleson Dr	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,992 (+9%)	2mo	$479,925	$241	57
13837 Wembley Bend Way	0.36mi	3/2.5	2,076 (+14%)	7mo	$498,093	$240	54
2020 Tolleson Dr	0.56mi	3/2.5	2,002 (+10%)	6mo	$439,769	$220	52
2169 Sandlin Dr	0.51mi	3/2.5	2,076 (+14%)	2mo	$449,781	$217	52
14224 Walsh Ave	0.37mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,023 (+11%)	11mo	$399,000	$197	50
14405 Walsh Ave	0.48mi	3/2.0	2,041 (+12%)	11mo	$559,000	$274	47
2016 Tolleson Dr	0.56mi	3/2.5	2,089 (+14%)	5mo	$417,897	$200	46
13645 Sweetwalk Pl	0.63mi	3/2.0	2,041 (+12%)	11mo	$555,000	$272	40
13605 Sweetwalk Pl	0.69mi	3/2.0	2,098 (+15%)	6mo	$439,000	$209	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-109,489
• Equity at exit: $56,659

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.39×
• Total profit: $-147,954
• Equity at exit: $32,855

Cash invested: $106,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76008

• Home prices YoY: -16.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 825
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,218 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,993
• Tax from tax record: −$818 /mo · $9,820/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$375
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$676
• Net cashflow: $-802

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,233

Max offer price $238,324

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-587	-5% $-694	+0% $-802	+5% $-910	+10% $-1,017
Rent	-10% $-1,056	-5% $-929	+0% $-802	+5% $-675	+10% $-548
Rate	-1.0pp $-611	-0.5pp $-705	base $-802	+0.5pp $-900	+1.0pp $-1,001

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $95,000
• Closing costs: $11,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2113 Domingo Dr Aledo, TX	3.0	2.5	2450	$3,500	$1.43	0d	1	0.29mi
14228 Walsh Ave Aledo, TX	3.0	2.5	1766	$3,600	$2.04	0d	1	0.38mi
13400 Highland Hills Dr Aledo, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1204	$2,925	$2.43	0d	276	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $375 · $4,500/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $379,999 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $379,999 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $379,999 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $379,999 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $379,999 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $379,999 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $384,999 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $384,999 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $384,999 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $384,999 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $384,999 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $384,999 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $384,999 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $384,999 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-05-10
    listed $3,500
16. 2026-04-24
    price $394,999 1005-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1005 chars)

    Looking for your dream home in Aledo ISD, nestled in the ultimate luxury and convenience of Walsh Ranch? Look no further! This stunning upgraded 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home is designed for both comfort and style. The upgrades are endless, featuring custom built-in cabinetry, designer wallpaper, modern accent walls, and a truly one-of-a-kind owner's suite. The suite serves as a peaceful retreat, complete with an ensuite bathroom featuring a relaxing soaking tub, an oversized walk-in closet with built-in drawers, and elegant finishes. Step outside to a low-maintenance backyard with artificial turf and custom stonework, perfect for enjoying those cool spring nights. Located in the highly sought-after Walsh Ranch community, this home offers access to resort-style amenities, including neighborhood pools, ponds, scenic trails, a state-of-the-art fitness center, a grocery store, and more. Experience luxury living at its finest—because in Aledo, it’s always a great day to be a Bearcat!

17. 2026-03-25
    listed $399,999 Active 1005-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1005 chars)

    Looking for your dream home in Aledo ISD, nestled in the ultimate luxury and convenience of Walsh Ranch? Look no further! This stunning upgraded 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home is designed for both comfort and style. The upgrades are endless, featuring custom built-in cabinetry, designer wallpaper, modern accent walls, and a truly one-of-a-kind owner's suite. The suite serves as a peaceful retreat, complete with an ensuite bathroom featuring a relaxing soaking tub, an oversized walk-in closet with built-in drawers, and elegant finishes. Step outside to a low-maintenance backyard with artificial turf and custom stonework, perfect for enjoying those cool spring nights. Located in the highly sought-after Walsh Ranch community, this home offers access to resort-style amenities, including neighborhood pools, ponds, scenic trails, a state-of-the-art fitness center, a grocery store, and more. Experience luxury living at its finest—because in Aledo, it’s always a great day to be a Bearcat!

18. 2025-07-25
    historical $3,200
19. 2025-07-24
    historical
20. 2025-07-08
    listed $3,200
21. 2025-07-07
    status Active
22. 2025-06-23
    historical $3,200
23. 2025-06-13
    price $3,200
24. 2025-05-29
    listed $3,500
25. 2025-05-28
    price $434,900
26. 2025-03-12
    listed $444,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,820 · $818/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,820 · $818/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,619
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,286
• − Property taxes: −$9,820
• − Insurance: −$1,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,090
• − Management: −$3,090
• − HOA: −$4,500
• − Depreciation: −$11,055
• Taxable loss: −$16,120
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,869
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,755/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aledo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807780
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $102,936
• Composite: 61.94/100
• National rank: #725
• State rank: #11 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fort Worth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Worth, TX
• County: Parker County · 144,797 people
• City population: 911,619
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,165
• Household income: $168,314
• Rent vs Own: 8.2% rent · 91.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 27.0

Population outlook (Parker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 147,426 people
• By 2030: 157,863 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 177,519 · +20.4%
• By 2050: 194,786 · +32.1%
• By 2075: 238,799 · +62.0%
• By 2100: 264,126 · +79.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Parker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.4) · D 16.4% · R 82.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -55.2pp · 2024: -66.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.4 2020: R+64.4 2016: R+67.5 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+55.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.05%
• Current HPI: 242.9582
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.82%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Listed for Rent $3,500 NTREIS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $394,999 NTREIS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $399,999 NTREIS
• 2025-07-25 Rental Removed $3,200 NTREIS
• 2025-07-24 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-07-08 Listed for Rent $3,200 NTREIS
• 2025-07-07 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-06-23 Rental Removed $3,200 NTREIS
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $3,200 NTREIS
• 2025-05-29 Listed for Rent $3,500 NTREIS
• 2025-05-28 Price Changed $434,900 NTREIS
• 2025-03-12 Listed $444,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+176.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,820 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.