12562 N Avenida Galaxia · Avra Valley, AZ 85653

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Manufactured · 23 Days on market

Built 1973 1.14 ac lot $75/sqft · 40% below area Est $125k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

An unaffixed single wide mobile home on a large corner lot in Marana - needs lots of work to make it beautiful. Priced for quick sale, make an offer.

Key facts

• 1.14 acre lot
• Built 1973
• Listed 23 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned Pima County - SH; Lot approximately 49,571 sq ft; Property listed as fixer

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Phone connected
• Home design: Manufactured home; One story; Faces west
• Construction: Frame and wood frame construction with siding; Metal roof; Approximately 1,000 building area
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Paved road access; Subdivided lot

Interior

• Flooring: Concrete; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Concrete and wood flooring; Fireplace (see remarks)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $867 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.2% vs local median 5.8% in Avra Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#275 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Marana Unified District (4404) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #83 of 249 in AZ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Picture Rocks Elementary (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #752 of 1,109 statewide, top 70%, 493 students, 67% FRL); Marana Middle School (math 24% / reading 30%, grade F, #97 of 218 statewide, top 45%, 907 students, 44% FRL); Marana High School (math 21% / reading 24%, grade F, #210 of 381 statewide, top 55%, 2,379 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 416 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $19k; list at $75k implies a 295% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $73,875 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.53%
• DSCR: 3.20
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $125,260
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -40.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16220 W Sandy St	0.18mi	2/2.0	952 (-5%)	2mo	$199,000	$209	78
12455 N Eliese Ave	0.39mi	2/2.0	980 (-2%)	4mo	$100,000	$102	71
12771 N Luther Rd	0.50mi	2/2.0	980 (-2%)	7mo	$130,000	$133	63
16437 W Sandy St	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	980 (-2%)	20mo	$97,500	$99	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.08×
• Total profit: $43,768
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.34×
• Total profit: $112,167
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85653

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,678 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $409/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $867

Break-even live

Break-even rent $581

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $909	-5% $888	+0% $867	+5% $846	+10% $824
Rent	-10% $734	-5% $800	+0% $867	+5% $933	+10% $999
Rate	-1.0pp $905	-0.5pp $886	base $867	+0.5pp $847	+1.0pp $828

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16075 W El Tiro Rd Marana, AZ	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,200	$1.04	3d	1	0.34mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 149-char remark
2. 2026-04-17
   listed $75,000 Active 149-char remark
3. 1995-08-09
   soldstatus $19,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $409 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $495 · $41/mo
• Expected delta: +$86/yr (+$7/mo · 21.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,133
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$409
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,611
• − Management: −$1,611
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $9,744
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,339
• After-tax cash flow: $8,062/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marana Unified District (4404)
• NCES district ID: 0404630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $65,282
• Composite: 30.96/100
• National rank: #6103
• State rank: #83 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Avra Valley

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #275
• US rank: #23869

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Avra Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 23,574
• Household income: $86,154
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 181.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 15% Black 3% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.29%
• Current HPI: 249.3403
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.43%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+294.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-17 Listed $75,000 MLSSAZ
• 1995-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $19,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $409 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.