12690 Mueller Dr · Pine Mountain Lake, CA 95321

$239,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,289 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 111 Days on market

Built 1994 0.29 ac lot Est $333k · 28% under $306/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to beautiful Pine Mountain Lake in Groveland, CA — just minutes from Yosemite National Park and surrounded by the natural beauty of the Sierra foothills. This manufactured home offers 3 bedrooms or 2 with Den and 2 baths with an open, bright layout designed for comfortable living. The spacious living area features a cozy fireplace, creating the perfect space to relax after a day on the golf course or exploring the lake. Large windows bring in natural light, enhancing the welcoming feel throughout the home. Open and Bright Kitchen, Inside Laundry and enjoy the convenience of a two-car attached garage and a prime location just outside the main gate — providing easy access without having to pass through the gate daily, while still enjoying all the incredible amenities Pine Mountain Lake has to offer. For the avid golfer, the property is within walking distance to the championship golf course. Residents also enjoy access to the private lake and marina, clubhouse with restaurant, swimming pool, tennis courts, pickleball, and more making this an ideal full-time residence, vacation home, or investment opportunity. Start enjoying the Pine Mountain Lake lifestyle Today!

Key facts

• Swimming pool
• Cozy fireplace
• 0.29 acre lot

Tags

• COZY FIREPLACE
• OPEN AND BRIGHT KITCHEN
• TWO CAR ATTACHED GARAGE
• ACCESS TO PRIVATE LAKE
• CLUBHOUSE WITH RESTAURANT
• SWIMMING POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-182 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (13.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.4% in Pine Mountain Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#896 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, housing B; Watch: employment C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Big Oak Flat-Groveland Unified (rural): math 15% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #1,094 of 1,400 in CA (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 235 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $103k; list at $239k implies a 132% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,854 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.27%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $332,562
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19155 Ferretti	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,291 (+0%)	19mo	$380,000	$294	68
13048 Jackson Mill Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+4%)	3mo	$365,000	$272	67
19276 Ferretti Rd	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+1%)	23mo	$278,000	$214	64
13170 Jackson Ml	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,338 (+4%)	8mo	$315,000	$235	61
19420 Reid	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,328 (+3%)	20mo	$342,000	$258	54
19303 Ferretti Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,349 (+5%)	23mo	$362,000	$268	50
12856 Mueller	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,196 (-7%)	21mo	$320,000	$268	48
12869 Mueller Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-11%)	22mo	$250,000	$217	43
19421 Grizzly Cir	0.71mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,226 (-5%)	12mo	$325,000	$265	41
13121 Mohrmann	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+13%)	18mo	$187,000	$128	39
12445 Tannahill	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,476 (+14%)	20mo	$360,000	$244	36
19338 James Cir	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+13%)	20mo	$327,000	$225	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-50,240
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-58,273
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95321

• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,019 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,418/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$306
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $-182

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,249

Max offer price $206,773

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-47	-5% $-115	+0% $-182	+5% $-250	+10% $-318
Rent	-10% $-342	-5% $-262	+0% $-182	+5% $-103	+10% $-23
Rate	-1.0pp $-62	-0.5pp $-122	base $-182	+0.5pp $-244	+1.0pp $-307

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19223 Salvador Ct Unit C Groveland, CA	2.0	1.5	1106	$1,800	$1.63	14d	1	0.43mi
19220 Pleasantview Dr Groveland, CA	2.0	1.0	1152	$2,000	$1.74	44d	1	0.44mi
19570 Cottonwood St Groveland, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,500	$1.79	22d	1	0.93mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $306 · $3,672/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $239,000 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,000 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,000 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,000 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,000 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $239,000 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $239,000 Active 104 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,000 Active 101 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,000 Active 100 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,000 Active 99 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,000 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $239,000 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,000 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,000 Active 93 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,000 Active 92 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,000 Active 91 DOM
17. 2026-02-28
    listed $239,000 Active 1199-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1199 chars)

    Welcome to beautiful Pine Mountain Lake in Groveland, CA — just minutes from Yosemite National Park and surrounded by the natural beauty of the Sierra foothills. This manufactured home offers 3 bedrooms or 2 with Den and 2 baths with an open, bright layout designed for comfortable living. The spacious living area features a cozy fireplace, creating the perfect space to relax after a day on the golf course or exploring the lake. Large windows bring in natural light, enhancing the welcoming feel throughout the home. Open and Bright Kitchen, Inside Laundry and enjoy the convenience of a two-car attached garage and a prime location just outside the main gate — providing easy access without having to pass through the gate daily, while still enjoying all the incredible amenities Pine Mountain Lake has to offer. For the avid golfer, the property is within walking distance to the championship golf course. Residents also enjoy access to the private lake and marina, clubhouse with restaurant, swimming pool, tennis courts, pickleball, and more making this an ideal full-time residence, vacation home, or investment opportunity. Start enjoying the Pine Mountain Lake lifestyle Today!

18. 2015-07-20
    soldstatus $103,000
19. 2015-03-03
    listed $124,900
20. 1997-09-26
    soldstatus $102,000
21. 1992-09-24
    soldstatus $20,000
22. 1989-12-01
    soldstatus $17,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,418 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,816 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: +$399/yr (+$33/mo · 28.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,222
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$1,418
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,938
• − Management: −$1,938
• − HOA: −$3,672
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$6,278
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,507
• After-tax cash flow: $-682/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Big Oak Flat-Groveland Unified
• NCES district ID: 0691137
• Math proficiency: 15% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $52,027
• Composite: 27.21/100
• National rank: #12450
• State rank: #1094 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Pine Mountain Lake

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #896
• US rank: #23898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment C- Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Mountain Lake, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,870

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Serbian 4% Scotch-Irish 4%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.27%
• Current HPI: 137.7561
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1305.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-28 Listed $239,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2015-07-20 Sold (MLS) $103,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2015-03-03 Listed $124,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1997-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $102,000 Public Records
• 1992-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 1989-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,418 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.