9504 Gray Fox DR Dr · North Weeki Wachee, FL 34613

$130,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 532 sqft · Condo public records · 12 Days on market

Built 2012 $155/mo HOA · 12% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Deed Lot

Key facts

• Tennis
• Deeded lot
• Community pool

Tags

• DEEDED LOT
• WATERFRONT LOT
• BACKS TO A POND
• COMMUNITY POOL
• GOLF CARTS ALLOWED
• TENNIS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee ($155); HOA amenities include pool, clubhouse, park, playground, tennis and shuffleboard courts, basketball court, barbecue areas, RV/boat storage, storage, and trash/water services; Association fee covers grounds maintenance, sewer, trash, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Shared well water source; Public sewer; Electricity available; Sewer connected; Water connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home; One level; Property is attached; Residential (mobile home) used for agricultural
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal and shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered screened porch; Shed; Waterfront lot (lakefront); Paved road access; Lot zoned agricultural

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Plumbed for ice maker; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air; Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; His and hers closets; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-394/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $124k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (3.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $124k (4.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.9% in North Weeki Wachee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#534 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Winding Waters K-8 (math 50% / reading 48%, grade D, #1,134 of 2,144 statewide, top 54%, 1,622 students, 56% FRL); Weeki Wachee High School (math 41% / reading 42%, grade F, #284 of 667 statewide, top 43%, 1,435 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 695 active listings in the ZIP; 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $130k implies a 465% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $124,198 (4.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.08%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-23,058
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-22,368
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34613

• Home prices YoY: -17.2%
• Active inventory: 695
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,261 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$138 /mo · $1,659/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$155
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $-33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,303

Max offer price $124,198

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $41	-5% $4	+0% $-33	+5% $-70	+10% $-106
Rent	-10% $-132	-5% $-83	+0% $-33	+5% $17	+10% $67
Rate	-1.0pp $33	-0.5pp $0	base $-33	+0.5pp $-67	+1.0pp $-101

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $155 · $1,860/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $130,000 Pending 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $130,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $130,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $130,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $130,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $130,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-05-23
   listed $130,000 Active
8. 2012-02-13
   soldstatus $23,000
9. 2012-01-27
   soldstatus $23,000 8-char remark

   Show marketing remark (8 chars)

   Deed Lot

10. 2012-01-27
    soldstatus $23,000 8-char remark

    Show marketing remark (8 chars)

    Deed Lot

11. 2012-01-24
    listed $23,000 8-char remark

    Show marketing remark (8 chars)

    Deed Lot

12. 2012-01-24
    listed $23,000 8-char remark

    Show marketing remark (8 chars)

    Deed Lot

13. 2003-05-09
    soldstatus $12,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,659 · $138/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,659 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,134
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,659
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,211
• − Management: −$1,211
• − HOA: −$1,860
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$2,520
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$605
• After-tax cash flow: $211/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hernando
• NCES district ID: 1200810
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,985
• Composite: 42.03/100
• National rank: #3329
• State rank: #38 of 73 in FL

Livability — North Weeki Wachee

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10019

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Weeki Wachee, FL
• County: Hernando County · 169,677 people
• City population: 18,280
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,337
• Household income: $58,596
• Rent vs Own: 9.2% rent · 90.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 307.0

Population outlook (Hernando County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,218 people
• By 2030: 194,367 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 203,398 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 209,589 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 218,452 · +15.4%
• By 2100: 205,923 · +8.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hernando

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+29.0 2012: R+8.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.51%
• Current HPI: 276.2229
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+907.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $130,000 HCAR
• 2012-02-13 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records
• 2012-01-27 Sold (MLS) $23,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2012-01-27 Sold (MLS) $23,000 HCAR
• 2012-01-24 Listed $23,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2012-01-24 Listed $23,000 HCAR
• 2003-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $12,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,659 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.