5081 Boulder Dr · Hermantown, MN 55811

$126,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured · 3 Days on market

Built 2011

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this clean and modest manufactured home located in the Bel Air Manor MHP of Hermantown! Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with an open-concept living / kitchen space, this home is fitted with carpeting and LVP flooring throughout, oak cabinetry and all newer appliances in the kitchen, and a dedicated laundry area around the corner. It's fueled with a 100amp circuit breaker, forced air heat, central AC, and an electric water heater. The updated lot rent is $410/mo, with a $250 security deposit. Prospective Buyers must fill out an application and be approved by Bel Air for tenancy. Preview the listing with the Matterport virtual tour, but make sure to call and schedule your own personal time to view this property in-person!

Key facts

• Private deck
• Engineered slab
• Built 2011

Tags

• PRIVATE DECK
• OPEN LIVING ROOM KITCHEN
• ENGINEERED SLAB

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Annual tax amount listed ($1,458)
• Financial info: Land lease $535 (as listed)

Exterior

• Parking: No parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family detached residence; One-story home
• Construction: One-story construction
• Exterior features: Shed(s) on the property

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Master bedroom located on the main floor; Crawl space basement (no finished basement)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $126k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $779 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $126k).
• Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 2.1% in Hermantown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#446 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Hermantown Public School District (rural): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #73 of 301 in MN (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 206 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 639 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $875 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $126,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.40%
• DSCR: 2.17
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $32,583
• Equity at exit: $18,862

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.02×
• Total profit: $106,915
• Equity at exit: $10,937

Cash invested: $35,420 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55811

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,093 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$663
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$158 /mo · $1,898/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $779

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,107

Max offer price $126,500

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,625
• Closing costs: $3,795
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4877 W Arrowhead Rd Unit 124 Hermantown, MN	2.0	1.0	1190	$1,750	$1.47	13d	1	1.43mi
4877 W Arrowhead Rd Hermantown, MN	2.0	1.0	1190	$1,695	$1.42	43d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $126,500 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $126,500 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 327-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $126,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,115
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,086
• − Property taxes: −$1,898
• − Insurance: −$632
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,009
• − Management: −$2,009
• − Depreciation: −$3,680
• Taxable income: $7,801
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,872
• After-tax cash flow: $7,478/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hermantown Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2713920
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $67,133
• Composite: 46.47/100
• National rank: #2438
• State rank: #73 of 301 in MN

Livability — Hermantown

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #446
• US rank: #10529

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hermantown, MN
• County: Saint Louis County · 115,152 people
• City population: 28,218
• Metro: Duluth, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 28,118
• Household income: $79,804
• Rent vs Own: 31.0% rent · 69.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1019.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,411 people
• By 2030: 203,234 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 202,520 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 200,853 · -0.8%
• By 2075: 200,943 · -0.7%
• By 2100: 192,058 · -5.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: D (+13.7) · D 55.9% · R 42.2% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.7 2020: D+15.6 2016: D+11.8 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -252.84%
• Current HPI: 198.2613
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Metro: Duluth, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+130.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $126,500 LSAR
• 2023-03-01 Sold (MLS) $125,000 LSAR
• 2022-12-14 Listed $139,900 LSAR
• 2015-02-27 Sold (MLS) $55,000 LSAR
• 2015-02-27 Sold (MLS) $55,000 RASM
• 2015-02-27 Sold (MLS) $55,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-24 Listed $55,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-24 Listed $55,000 RASM
• 2015-02-19 Listed $55,000 LSAR