3930 Chert Chase · San Antonio, TX 78245

$188,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,375 sqft · SingleFamily · 78 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,791 sqft lot $137/sqft · 32% below area Est $278k · 32% under $75/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Denley - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• THREE SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $77 ($925/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (2.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.0%/yr); 1133 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $177,659 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.75%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $277,594
• List price: $188,999
• Delta: -31.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12402 Winding Oak Rdg	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (-2%)	1mo	$210,999	$156	87
11815 Deloache Vale	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,442 (+5%)	9mo	$324,000	$225	80
12125 La Cuchilla	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,535 (+12%)	2mo	$208,999	$136	77
12137 La Cuchilla	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,535 (+12%)	2mo	$209,999	$137	77
3407 Angus Xing	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,299 (-6%)	4mo	$215,000	$166	65
3446 Angus Xing	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,540 (+12%)	8mo	$259,999	$169	49
3227 Onion Crk	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,540 (+12%)	2mo	$169,900	$110	49
3027 Haynie Mesa	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,489 (+8%)	3mo	$298,950	$201	48
11818 Wentwood Vale	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,280 (-7%)	6mo	$272,950	$213	47
3219 Davis Trce	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,535 (+12%)	3mo	$295,950	$193	41
3019 Haynie Mesa	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,535 (+12%)	6mo	$295,950	$193	40
11734 Wentwood Vale	0.75mi	4/2.0	1,572 (+14%)	6mo	$282,950	$180	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-31,054
• Equity at exit: $28,180

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-41,326
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78245

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1133
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,846 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$236 /mo · $2,835/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $77

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,748

Max offer price $188,999

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12141 Pease Riv San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1396	$1,595	$1.14	2d	1	0.26mi
12126 Sampson Crk San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1489	$1,895	$1.27	23d	1	0.27mi
12118 Pease Riv San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,850	$1.20	12d	1	0.31mi
12010 Mulberry Crk Unit NA San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,850	$1.43	14d	1	0.49mi
3127 Keuka Park Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1698	$1,950	$1.15	23d	1	0.53mi
3232 Onion Crk San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1168	$1,495	$1.28	43d	1	0.55mi
11902 Mulberry Crk San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,647	$1.17	43d	1	0.56mi
3111 Lamoka Lk San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1509	$1,600	$1.06	43d	1	0.59mi
3111 Lamoka Lk San Antonio, TX	3.0	3.0	1508	$1,600	$1.06	1d	1	0.59mi
3303 Mission Riv San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1489	$1,850	$1.24	43d	1	0.59mi
2840 Tengyc Bow San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1704	$1,775	$1.04	44d	1	0.75mi
14618 Fowler Rdg San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,776	$1.40	14d	1	0.83mi
4615 Serpens San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1747	$1,800	$1.03	23d	1	0.97mi
3011 Lindenwood Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1700	$1,955	$1.15	23d	1	0.99mi
2917 Wentwood Run San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,825	$1.11	16d	1	1.06mi
12627 Corona Borealis San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,680	$1.19	43d	1	1.10mi
12510 Galatea San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,575	$1.30	17d	1	1.12mi
5010 Jovian San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1536	$2,100	$1.37	4d	1	1.12mi
12515 Antilia San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,800	$1.28	10d	1	1.15mi
13078 Cygnus San Antonio, TX	4.0	1.0–3.0	1656	$2,014	$1.22	1d	8	1.16mi
11727 Black Rose San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,650	$1.25	43d	1	1.18mi
11348 Top Hat San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,775	$1.07	43d	1	1.19mi
11806 Red Pheasant San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,550	$1.24	4d	1	1.20mi
11752 Red Pheasant San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1246	$1,595	$1.28	23d	1	1.22mi
11732 Red Pheasant San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1780	$1,795	$1.01	23d	1	1.24mi
11328 Silver Rose San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1691	$1,870	$1.11	43d	1	1.25mi
11735 Midnight Rain San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1417	$1,595	$1.13	20d	1	1.26mi
12530 Larissa San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1661	$2,300	$1.38	23d	1	1.26mi
11323 Pink Star San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1695	$1,700	$1.00	4d	1	1.35mi
11215 Aristides San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1520	$1,925	$1.27	4d	1	1.37mi
11620 Midnight Rain San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1780	$1,795	$1.01	21d	1	1.38mi
11620 Midnight Rain San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1780	$1,850	$1.04	43d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $188,999 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $188,999 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $188,999 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $188,999 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $188,999 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $188,999 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $188,999 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $188,999 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $188,999 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $188,999 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $188,999 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $188,999 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $188,999 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-04-01
    listed $188,999 New 544-char remark

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    The Denley - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,150
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,835
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,772
• − Management: −$1,772
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$2,159
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$518
• After-tax cash flow: $1,443/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and has the potential to be further enhanced with minor updates to the interior and landscaping to maximize its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — A well-maintained landscape can enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers or renters.
• Both Interior paint — Fresh paint can make the interior look more inviting and modern.
• Both Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and value.
• Both Bathroom fixtures — Updating the bathroom fixtures can improve the home's functionality and aesthetic appeal.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — A well-maintained landscape can enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Interior paint — Fresh paint can make the interior look more inviting and modern. ↑
• Both Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Both Bathroom fixtures — Updating the bathroom fixtures can improve the home's functionality and aesthetic appeal. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 96,015
• Household income: $90,029
• Rent vs Own: 31.3% rent · 68.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2466.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 27% White 20% Black 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 53% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 30% Arabic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.31%
• Current HPI: 234.7931
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.02%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $188,999 LERA