524 Picasso Way #524 · Middle Island, NY 11953

$239,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · Condo · 63 Days on market

Built 1974 Good condition $341/sqft · at area comps Est $246k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a Fannie Mae Homepath Property! Totally renovated 1 bedroom 1 bath co-op. New kitchen, bath, paint, carpet and appliances. Move in ready. CAC, side fenced patio. Community offers pool, clubhouse, recreation facilities and tennis. Close to restaurants and shopping.

Key facts

• New bath
• New kitchen
• Side fenced patio

Tags

• NEW KITCHEN
• NEW BATH
• SIDE FENCED PATIO
• COMMUNITY OFFERS POOL
• COMMUNITY OFFERS CLUBHOUSE
• COMMUNITY OFFERS TENNIS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $239k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $278 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $239k).
• Recommended offer: $225k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.3% in Middle Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#703 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Longwood Central School District (rural): math 61% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #235 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $175k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $224,660 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.99%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,697
• List price: $239,000
• Delta: -2.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-20,980
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $4,686
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11953

• Home prices YoY: -20.2%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,443 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$299 /mo · $3,585/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $278

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,091

Max offer price $239,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
135 Lake Pointe Ct Unit 135 Middle Island, NY	1.0	1.0	695	$2,405	$3.46	43d	1	0.27mi
130 Lake Pointe Ct Unit 130 Brookhaven, NY	2.0	1.0	740	$2,435	$3.29	43d	1	0.28mi
465 Lake Pointe Dr Unit 465 Middle Island, NY	1.0	1.0	695	$2,405	$3.46	43d	1	0.32mi
463 Lake Pointe Dr Unit 463 Middle Island, NY	1.0	1.0	695	$2,555	$3.68	44d	1	0.33mi
356 Lake Pointe Dr Unit 356 Middle Island, NY	2.0	1.0	740	$2,435	$3.29	44d	1	0.36mi
444 Lake Pointe Dr Unit 444 Middle Island, NY	2.0	1.0	740	$2,435	$3.29	43d	1	0.40mi
462 Lake Pointe Dr Unit 462 Middle Island, NY	2.0	1.0	740	$2,435	$3.29	43d	1	0.41mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $239,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $255,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $255,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $255,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $255,000 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $255,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $255,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $255,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $255,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    price $255,000 272-char remark

    Show marketing remark (272 chars)

    This is a Fannie Mae Homepath Property! Totally renovated 1 bedroom 1 bath co-op. New kitchen, bath, paint, carpet and appliances. Move in ready. CAC, side fenced patio. Community offers pool, clubhouse, recreation facilities and tennis. Close to restaurants and shopping.

16. 2026-04-16
    listed $275,000 Active 272-char remark

    Show marketing remark (272 chars)

    This is a Fannie Mae Homepath Property! Totally renovated 1 bedroom 1 bath co-op. New kitchen, bath, paint, carpet and appliances. Move in ready. CAC, side fenced patio. Community offers pool, clubhouse, recreation facilities and tennis. Close to restaurants and shopping.

17. 2025-04-24
    historical
18. 2025-04-14
    status Active
19. 2025-03-23
    status Pending
20. 2025-03-05
    listed $275,000 Active
21. 2022-06-30
    soldstatus $175,000 Closed
22. 2022-04-19
    status Pending
23. 2022-04-09
    historical
24. 2022-03-26
    listed $149,990 Active
25. 2022-03-21
    historical $149,990

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,313
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$3,585
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,345
• − Management: −$2,345
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$498
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$119
• After-tax cash flow: $3,456/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This fully renovated 1-bedroom 1-bath condo is move-in ready with a fresh paint job, new kitchen and bathroom, and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good return on investment with potential for further updates to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replacing carpet with hardwood or tile flooring — Hardwood or tile flooring can increase both resale and rental value
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters
• Both Adding a smart home system — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replacing carpet with hardwood or tile flooring — Hardwood or tile flooring can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Longwood Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619230
• Math proficiency: 61% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $72,748
• Composite: 51.63/100
• National rank: #1703
• State rank: #235 of 590 in NY

Livability — Middle Island

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #703
• US rank: #13264

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middle Island, NY
• City population: 13,383
• Population (ZIP): 13,383

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 15% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.61%
• Current HPI: 358.0686
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+70.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $255,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Listed $275,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-24 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-14 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-23 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-05 Listed $275,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-30 Sold (MLS) $175,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-19 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-09 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-26 Listed $149,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-21 Coming Soon $149,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid