3808 Baxley Villas Ct · Asbury Lake, FL 32068

$276,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,604 sqft · Land · 65 Days on market

Built 2026 2,613 sqft lot $111/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 BR/2.5 BA New Paired Villa in Middleburg, FL. Discover the Maple floor plan by Drees Homes, a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that blends comfort and style. The main level features an open-concept kitchen, dining area and spacious family room, perfect for entertaining or relaxing with loved ones. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a generous retreat, complemented by an additional primary suite and a laundry space. A convenient outdoor living space adds flexibility and charm to suit your lifestyle. Ideal for any resident seeking modern living with personalized touches, the Maple plan delivers both functionality and elegance. Furnished photos and virtual tours are for illustrative purposes only and plan interiors may vary slightly.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Open concept kitchen
• Wrap around kitchen

Tags

• MODERN FINISHES
• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• UNDER CABINET LIGHTING
• WRAP AROUND KITCHEN
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $111 monthly fee; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Garage; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water connected; Sewer connected; Electricity connected; Cable available
• Home design: Townhouse; Two levels; Property attached
• Exterior features: Private pool: No; Lot approximately 0.06 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $277k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-421 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (22.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (26.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (26.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#776 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $203,028 (26.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.52%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-70,900
• Equity at exit: $41,300

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-92,923
• Equity at exit: $23,949

Cash invested: $77,557 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32068

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 601
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,030 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,453
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$346 /mo · $4,155/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$111
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $-421

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,564

Max offer price $216,028

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-230	-5% $-326	+0% $-421	+5% $-517	+10% $-613
Rent	-10% $-582	-5% $-501	+0% $-421	+5% $-341	+10% $-261
Rate	-1.0pp $-282	-0.5pp $-351	base $-421	+0.5pp $-493	+1.0pp $-566

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,248
• Closing costs: $8,310
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3861 Baxley Villas Ct Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1604	$2,000	$1.25	15d	1	0.05mi
1854 Alberta Ct N Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,775	$1.49	24d	1	0.21mi
1871 Alberta Ct S Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1524	$1,720	$1.13	24d	1	0.25mi
1809 Penzance Pkwy Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1708	$2,100	$1.23	5d	1	0.53mi
1976 Hunters Trace Cir Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1576	$1,880	$1.19	2d	1	0.85mi
1469 Jeremiah St Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1468	$2,000	$1.36	24d	1	1.10mi
3424 Steelgate Ct Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.0	2128	$2,150	$1.01	4d	1	1.11mi
1685 Bridger Trce Middleburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1210	$1,900	$1.57	24d	1	1.15mi
3481 Alec Dr Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.5	2250	$2,095	$0.93	24d	1	1.18mi
1633 Bridger Trce Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1502	$1,900	$1.26	24d	1	1.19mi
3640 Alec Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1178	$1,710	$1.45	2d	1	1.20mi
3413 Alec Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,711	$1.30	20d	1	1.26mi
3533 Talisman Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1893	$1,899	$1.00	8d	1	1.28mi
1268 Winding Brook Ct Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.0	1921	$1,901	$0.99	24d	1	1.30mi
3437 Talisman Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,779	$1.37	11d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $111 · $1,332/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $276,990 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $276,990 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $276,990 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $276,990 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $276,990 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $276,990 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $276,990 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $276,990 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $276,990 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $276,990 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $276,990 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $276,990 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $276,990 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-04-14
    listed $276,990 Active
15. 2026-04-08
    listed $276,990 Active 748-char remark

    Show marketing remark (748 chars)

    2 BR/2.5 BA New Paired Villa in Middleburg, FL. Discover the Maple floor plan by Drees Homes, a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that blends comfort and style. The main level features an open-concept kitchen, dining area and spacious family room, perfect for entertaining or relaxing with loved ones. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a generous retreat, complemented by an additional primary suite and a laundry space. A convenient outdoor living space adds flexibility and charm to suit your lifestyle. Ideal for any resident seeking modern living with personalized touches, the Maple plan delivers both functionality and elegance. Furnished photos and virtual tours are for illustrative purposes only and plan interiors may vary slightly.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,363
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,516
• − Property taxes: −$4,155
• − Insurance: −$1,385
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,949
• − Management: −$1,949
• − HOA: −$1,332
• − Depreciation: −$8,058
• Taxable loss: −$9,980
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,395
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,660/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Asbury Lake

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #776
• US rank: #17575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $84,431
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 975.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.99%
• Current HPI: 305.2531
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.35%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $276,990 realMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $276,990 Zillow