00 Connolly · Pine Forest, TX 77662

$25,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,308 sqft · Land · 50 Days on market

6,970 sqft lot $19/sqft · 87% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Vacant long located near the slough with a tranquil, nature-filled backdrop. Peaceful setting with plenty of potential. Investors project aways you!

Key facts

• Fully gutted
• Ready for renovation
• 6,970 sq ft lot

Tags

• FULLY GUTTED
• READY FOR RENOVATION
• PEACEFUL NATURE-FILLED SETTING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family residence
• Construction: Residential property
• Exterior features: Lot of approximately 0.16 acres

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Interior features: Located in the Out Of Town subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $24k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 54.7% vs local median 5.3% in Pine Forest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#659 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Vidor ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #422 of 826 in TX (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 241 active listings in the ZIP; 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($24k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 150% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $24,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 54.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 172.86%
• DSCR: 8.69
• GRM: 1.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $186,858
• List price: $25,000
• Delta: -86.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.60×
• Total profit: $60,192
• Equity at exit: $3,728

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 20.31×
• Total profit: $135,201
• Equity at exit: $2,162

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77662

• Active inventory: 241
• Price-to-rent: 1.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,495 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$31 /mo · $375/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $1,008

Break-even live

Break-even rent $219

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 28%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $25,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $25,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $25,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $25,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $25,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $25,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $25,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $25,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $25,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $25,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $25,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $25,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $25,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $25,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-04-29
    listed $10,000 Active 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    Escape to your own slice of nature with this land near the slough. Surrounding be a quiet, scenic setting, this property is perfect for those looking to build, invest, or create a private retreat, Enjoy the sights and sounds of nature right in your backyard while having the flexibility to make it your own.

16. 2026-04-29
    listed $25,000 Active 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    Escape to your own slice of nature with this land near the slough. Surrounding be a quiet, scenic setting, this property is perfect for those looking to build, invest, or create a private retreat, Enjoy the sights and sounds of nature right in your backyard while having the flexibility to make it your own.

17. 2026-04-29
    listed $6,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    Escape to your own slice of nature with this land near the slough. Surrounding be a quiet, scenic setting, this property is perfect for those looking to build, invest, or create a private retreat, Enjoy the sights and sounds of nature right in your backyard while having the flexibility to make it your own.

18. 2022-11-11
    soldstatus
19. 2022-02-01
    listed $9,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,941
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$375
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,435
• − Management: −$1,435
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $12,443
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,986
• After-tax cash flow: $9,114/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vidor ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844160
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,169
• Composite: 33.95/100
• National rank: #5331
• State rank: #422 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pine Forest

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #659
• US rank: #12393

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 87,112 people
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,041
• Household income: $72,243
• Rent vs Own: 19.6% rent · 80.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 401.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,065 people
• By 2030: 89,591 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 91,982 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 93,023 · +5.6%
• By 2075: 94,871 · +7.7%
• By 2100: 88,155 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.4% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.6pp toward R · 2008: -47.1pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+61.9 2012: R+54.3 2008: R+47.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.46%
• Current HPI: 141.0844
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+5.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Listed $10,000 BBOR
• 2026-04-29 Listed $25,000 BBOR
• 2026-04-29 Listed $6,000 BBOR
• 2022-11-11 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2022-02-01 Listed $9,500 BBOR