66 Warren St · Tully, NY 13159

$119,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,224 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1978 0.53 ac lot Est $163k · 27% under ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Investor Alert! Bring your vision to this 1978 Tully ranch. This property is a prime candidate for a complete fix-and-flip or a value-add renovation for your rental portfolio. Located in a quiet residential area, this home is being sold as-is and is priced specifically for its potential. It is the perfect project for a seasoned investor or an ambitious homeowner ready to take on a full renovation. If you are looking for a property with "good bones" that needs significant cosmetic and functional updates to reach its highest value, this is it. Don’t miss this opportunity to capitalize on the strong Tully market, bring your contractor and your imagination to unlock the true pot

Key facts

• Value-add renovation
• Functional updates
• 0.53 acre lot

Tags

• COMPLETE FIX-AND-FLIP
• VALUE-ADD RENOVATION
• SIGNIFICANT COSMETIC UPDATES
• FUNCTIONAL UPDATES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $339 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $115k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 1.7% in Tully — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#800 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Tully Central School District (rural): math 53% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #308 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($823 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($115k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $115,430 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.21%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $162,792
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
51 Warren St	0.08mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,248 (+2%)	9mo	$80,000	$64	81
15 Village View Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,280 (+5%)	8mo	$299,000	$234	66
36 Elm St	0.39mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,359 (+11%)	17mo	$93,000	$68	44
9 Railroad St	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,388 (+13%)	10mo	$203,500	$147	42
14 Grove St	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,400 (+14%)	20mo	$186,500	$133	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.67% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $33,891
• Equity at exit: $51,324

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.79×
• Total profit: $93,031
• Equity at exit: $77,440

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13159

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,470 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$149 /mo · $1,785/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $339

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,041

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
59 State St Tully, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,470	$1.63	13d	2	0.71mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   price $119,000
3. 2026-03-21
   price $139,000
4. 2026-03-04
   listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,640
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,785
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,411
• − Management: −$1,411
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $2,310
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$554
• After-tax cash flow: $3,513/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tully Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3629130
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $67,026
• Composite: 46.91/100
• National rank: #2365
• State rank: #308 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tully

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #800
• US rank: #15471

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tully, NY
• City population: 5,297
• Population (ZIP): 5,297

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.67%
• Current HPI: 293.4315
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-20.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $119,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $139,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $150,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,800 · +56.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.