5601 County Road 1200 · Lubbock, TX 79407

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1999 5.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Five acres of unrestricted land with two wells and a large pressure tank. Includes a 1999 Model Double wide with a nice open concept nice size Isolated primary with on suite bathroom. Fenced back yard, Double carport with metal shop building at the front. There is also an antique box car type shop and covered area. This property would be great for country living close to town.

Key facts

• Large pressure tank
• Fenced back yard
• Double carport

Tags

• FIVE ACRES OF LAND
• TWO WELLS
• LARGE PRESSURE TANK
• FENCED BACK YARD
• DOUBLE CARPORT
• METAL SHOP BUILDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $215 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (2.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 610 active listings in the ZIP; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,250 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.26%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-19,684
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-18,875
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79407

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 610
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,647/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $215

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,428

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 79 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 78 DOM
16. 2026-03-13
    listed $175,000 Active 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    Five acres of unrestricted land with two wells and a large pressure tank. Includes a 1999 Model Double wide with a nice open concept nice size Isolated primary with on suite bathroom. Fenced back yard, Double carport with metal shop building at the front. There is also an antique box car type shop and covered area. This property would be great for country living close to town.

17. 2023-06-05
    historical 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    This 1999 model Doublewide Mobile Home has an open concept with New Kitchen Counters, isolated Master, Master sweet has Garden Tub and separate Shower. Nice large Yard with good landscaping. Double Carport with Metal Shop building. Fenced back yard. Central Heat and Air. 5 acres of country living! Two wells with large pressure tank. Antique Box car type shop and covered area. Land has a slight slope to the East. Don't miss this one!!

18. 2023-06-05
    soldstatus Closed 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    This 1999 model Doublewide Mobile Home has an open concept with New Kitchen Counters, isolated Master, Master sweet has Garden Tub and separate Shower. Nice large Yard with good landscaping. Double Carport with Metal Shop building. Fenced back yard. Central Heat and Air. 5 acres of country living! Two wells with large pressure tank. Antique Box car type shop and covered area. Land has a slight slope to the East. Don't miss this one!!

19. 2023-06-05
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    This 1999 model Doublewide Mobile Home has an open concept with New Kitchen Counters, isolated Master, Master sweet has Garden Tub and separate Shower. Nice large Yard with good landscaping. Double Carport with Metal Shop building. Fenced back yard. Central Heat and Air. 5 acres of country living! Two wells with large pressure tank. Antique Box car type shop and covered area. Land has a slight slope to the East. Don't miss this one!!

20. 2023-05-14
    status Pending 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    This 1999 model Doublewide Mobile Home has an open concept with New Kitchen Counters, isolated Master, Master sweet has Garden Tub and separate Shower. Nice large Yard with good landscaping. Double Carport with Metal Shop building. Fenced back yard. Central Heat and Air. 5 acres of country living! Two wells with large pressure tank. Antique Box car type shop and covered area. Land has a slight slope to the East. Don't miss this one!!

21. 2023-05-11
    status Active 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    This 1999 model Doublewide Mobile Home has an open concept with New Kitchen Counters, isolated Master, Master sweet has Garden Tub and separate Shower. Nice large Yard with good landscaping. Double Carport with Metal Shop building. Fenced back yard. Central Heat and Air. 5 acres of country living! Two wells with large pressure tank. Antique Box car type shop and covered area. Land has a slight slope to the East. Don't miss this one!!

22. 2023-05-06
    status Pending 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    This 1999 model Doublewide Mobile Home has an open concept with New Kitchen Counters, isolated Master, Master sweet has Garden Tub and separate Shower. Nice large Yard with good landscaping. Double Carport with Metal Shop building. Fenced back yard. Central Heat and Air. 5 acres of country living! Two wells with large pressure tank. Antique Box car type shop and covered area. Land has a slight slope to the East. Don't miss this one!!

23. 2023-05-03
    listed $140,000 Active 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    This 1999 model Doublewide Mobile Home has an open concept with New Kitchen Counters, isolated Master, Master sweet has Garden Tub and separate Shower. Nice large Yard with good landscaping. Double Carport with Metal Shop building. Fenced back yard. Central Heat and Air. 5 acres of country living! Two wells with large pressure tank. Antique Box car type shop and covered area. Land has a slight slope to the East. Don't miss this one!!

24. 2019-09-30
    soldstatus
25. 2016-10-03
    soldstatus
26. 2016-09-30
    soldstatus
27. 2016-08-16
    listed $89,500
28. 2006-06-30
    soldstatus
29. 1999-05-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,647 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,555/yr (+$130/mo · 94.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,395
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,647
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,632
• − Management: −$1,632
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$284
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$68
• After-tax cash flow: $2,645/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,000
• Household income: $61,509
• Rent vs Own: 52.8% rent · 47.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1914.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.87%
• Current HPI: 229.9895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.07%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+95.5% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Listed $175,000 LARMLS
• 2023-06-05 Delisted — LARMLS
• 2023-06-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-06-05 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2023-05-14 Pending — LARMLS
• 2023-05-11 Relisted — LARMLS
• 2023-05-06 Pending — LARMLS
• 2023-05-03 Listed $140,000 LARMLS
• 2019-09-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-10-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-09-30 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2016-08-16 Listed $89,500 LARMLS
• 2006-06-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-05-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,647 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.