20876 E Quail Run Dr · Cordes Lakes, AZ 86333

$260,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Manufactured public records · 56 Days on market

Built 2003 7,840 sqft lot Est $237k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• ARV discount +3.2/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

home has been loved by these original owners. Beautiful covered side patio detached carportfenced back yard with a large 12 x 12 shedcome and enjoy the mild 4 seasons all year round. Great central location in Arizona

Key facts

• Detached carport
• Fenced back yard
• Central location

Tags

• COVERED SIDE PATIO
• DETACHED CARPORT
• FENCED BACK YARD
• LARGE SHED
• CENTRAL LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R1-10; Road maintenance by county; Road frontage on a county road (asphalt/paved)
• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport (1 vehicle); Asphalt parking surface; Total parking for 1 vehicle
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Private water source; Septic system (WWT - Septic Conv); Propane available; 220V electrical service
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof; Crawl space foundation; Built area approximately 1,296
• Exterior features: Covered deck; Shed(s); Back yard perimeter fencing; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fans; Forced air heating; Propane heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen / Kitchen-dining combo; Vaulted ceilings; Washer/dryer connection; Laundry room
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer connection; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-217 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (12.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#181 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mayer Unified School District (4473) (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #165 of 249 in AZ (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mayer Elementary School (math 26% / reading 32%, grade F, #570 of 1,109 statewide, top 52%, 373 students, 93% FRL); Mayer High School (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #364 of 381 statewide, top 100%, 200 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools at 79% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 244 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $260k implies a 2500% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,982 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.58%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $237,168
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20809 E Antelope Rd	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+4%)	3mo	$239,900	$178	74
20721 E Mingus Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-11%)	8mo	$190,000	$165	67
20907 E Marble Canyon Way	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,287 (-1%)	13mo	$235,000	$183	65
20850 E Cedar Dr	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,184 (-9%)	3mo	$74,000	$63	64
20605 E Conestoga Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,420 (+10%)	6mo	$260,000	$183	62
20415 E Sierra Dr E #8	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+6%)	4mo	$289,000	$209	60
20629 E Prickly Pear Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,407 (+9%)	7mo	$199,900	$142	58
20518 E Sierra Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,210 (-7%)	14mo	$224,900	$186	53
20921 E Skyview Ln	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,414 (+9%)	3mo	$340,000	$240	51
20524 E Concho Ln	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,119 (-14%)	5mo	$199,000	$178	50
20929 E Coyote Ln	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,477 (+14%)	1mo	$205,000	$139	48
20225 E Conestoga Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,173 (-10%)	16mo	$239,000	$204	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $127,816
• Equity at exit: $234,229

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.32×
• Total profit: $387,322
• Equity at exit: $505,123

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86333

• Home prices YoY: 17.3%
• Active inventory: 244
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$325 /mo · $3,900/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-217

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,274

Max offer price $228,608

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-37	-5% $-127	+0% $-217	+5% $-307	+10% $-397
Rent	-10% $-375	-5% $-296	+0% $-217	+5% $-138	+10% $-59
Rate	-1.0pp $-86	-0.5pp $-151	base $-217	+0.5pp $-284	+1.0pp $-353

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   price $260,000
3. 2026-04-02
   price $271,000
4. 2026-03-03
   listed $279,000 Active
5. 1996-08-29
   soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥102°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,998
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$3,900
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$7,169
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,721
• After-tax cash flow: $-883/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mayer Unified School District (4473)
• NCES district ID: 0404820
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $35,108
• Composite: 20.22/100
• National rank: #8627
• State rank: #165 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Cordes Lakes

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #181
• US rank: #19144

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cordes Lakes, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 6,425

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.51%
• Current HPI: 376.0374
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+2500.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $260,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $271,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Listed $279,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $415 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.