12514 Hollybrook Ln · Meadow Oaks, FL 34669

$172,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 986 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1999 2,640 sqft lot Est $212k · 19% under $155/mo HOA · 9% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great villa- ready to move into - freshly painted and newer appliances; seller put in the front fence, front storm door, and the sprinkler system; located close to the pool and the mail box is just across the road from the villa; ice makerin the refrigerator; self cleaning oven; skylight; great location on a lovely pond; this villa is ready for the new owners! No age restrictions and you can bring your pet! A must see at this price!

Key facts

• Recent upgrades
• Brand-new flooring
• Natural light

Tags

• WELL-EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• RECENT UPGRADES
• BRAND-NEW FLOORING
• BRAND-NEW A/C UNIT
• NATURAL LIGHT
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total living area reported as 986 sq ft (public records); building area listed as 1,389 sq ft; Lot approximately 0.06 acres (about 245 sq meters)
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA: Shadow Run Village - Ameri-Tech Community; Monthly HOA fee of $155; HOA covers pool, structure maintenance, grounds maintenance, pest control, and trash; Community clubhouse, fitness center, pool, tennis courts, and golf; Deed restrictions; Pets allowed with possible breed restrictions; cats and dogs permitted; Golf carts allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available; High-speed internet available; Phone available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces west; PUD zoning
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as single-story
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Porch; Rear porch; Screened porch; Outdoor lighting; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Paved road access; Property located in county

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $172k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-51 ($-610/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (5.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (1.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (5.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.6% in Meadow Oaks — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#794 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $106k; list at $172k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,013 (5.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.27%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $211,990
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12529 Knollbrook Ln	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,032 (+5%)	9mo	$205,000	$199	79
12627 W Cherrydale Ln	0.13mi	2/2.0	924 (-6%)	8mo	$192,000	$208	77
12800 Kellywood Cir	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,002 (+2%)	6mo	$215,000	$215	67
12836 Kellywood Cir	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	976 (-1%)	3mo	$215,000	$220	61
12830 Lake Tree Ln	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+14%)	1mo	$145,000	$129	59
12802 Kellywood Cir	0.54mi	2/2.0	960 (-3%)	15mo	$230,000	$240	58
11972 Lakewood Dr	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,072 (+9%)	4mo	$190,000	$177	55
12233 Bartkus Ct	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,106 (+12%)	15mo	$216,000	$195	49
12903 Post Rd	0.72mi	2/1.0	960 (-3%)	12mo	$260,000	$271	48
12817 Kellywood Cir	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,108 (+12%)	10mo	$235,000	$212	43
12928 Kellywood Cir	0.60mi	2/1.0	882 (-10%)	19mo	$195,000	$221	34
12906 Kellywood Cir	0.65mi	2/1.0	866 (-12%)	18mo	$193,000	$223	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-30,959
• Equity at exit: $25,646

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-30,512
• Equity at exit: $14,871

Cash invested: $48,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34669

• Home prices YoY: -24.1%
• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,701 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$902
• Tax from tax record: −$266 /mo · $3,192/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$155
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $-51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,765

Max offer price $163,013

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,000
• Closing costs: $5,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12405 Shearwater Dr Unit 12405 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	3d	1	0.81mi
11550 Baywood Meadows Dr #7 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,495	$1.48	24d	1	1.06mi
11105 Pinto Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	672	$1,350	$2.01	13d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $155 · $1,860/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $172,000 Pending 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $172,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $172,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $172,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $172,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $172,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $172,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $172,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $172,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $172,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $172,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $172,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-05-20
    listed $172,000 Active
14. 2026-05-11
    historical $1,500
15. 2026-04-24
    price $1,500
16. 2026-04-16
    listed $1,550
17. 2007-04-25
    soldstatus $106,000
18. 2007-04-18
    soldstatus $106,000 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    Great villa- ready to move into - freshly painted and newer appliances; seller put in the front fence, front storm door, and the sprinkler system; located close to the pool and the mail box is just across the road from the villa; ice makerin the refrigerator; self cleaning oven; skylight; great location on a lovely pond; this villa is ready for the new owners! No age restrictions and you can bring your pet! A must see at this price!

19. 2006-09-21
    listed $115,000 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    Great villa- ready to move into - freshly painted and newer appliances; seller put in the front fence, front storm door, and the sprinkler system; located close to the pool and the mail box is just across the road from the villa; ice makerin the refrigerator; self cleaning oven; skylight; great location on a lovely pond; this villa is ready for the new owners! No age restrictions and you can bring your pet! A must see at this price!

20. 1997-10-30
    soldstatus $204,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,192 · $266/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,192 · $266/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,411
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,635
• − Property taxes: −$3,192
• − Insurance: −$860
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,633
• − Management: −$1,633
• − HOA: −$1,860
• − Depreciation: −$5,004
• Taxable loss: −$3,404
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$817
• After-tax cash flow: $207/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Meadow Oaks

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #794
• US rank: #18203

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Meadow Oaks, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,618
• Household income: $58,638
• Rent vs Own: 11.9% rent · 88.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 176.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Vietnamese 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.24%
• Current HPI: 321.5862
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-15.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $172,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Rental Removed $1,500 RentEngineListings
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $1,500 RentEngineListings
• 2026-04-16 Listed for Rent $1,550 RentEngineListings
• 2007-04-25 Sold (Public Records) $106,000 Public Records
• 2007-04-18 Sold (MLS) $106,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-09-21 Listed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $204,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,192 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.