408 Pine Branch Ln · Magnolia, TX 77447

$281,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,858 sqft · SingleFamily · 52 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

GREAT NEW D. R. HORTON BUILT HOME IN MAPLE WOODS! Pretty Elevation with Covered Front Porch! Open Concept Design & Modern Finishes! Impressive Entry Opens to Gourmet Island Kitchen with Quartz Countertops, 42” Polar White Shaker Cabinetry, White Subway Tile Backsplash, & Walk-In Pantry! Privately Located First Floor Primary Suite Features Big Walk-In Closet & Lovely Bath with Oversized Shower! Indoor Utility Room with Direct Garage Access! Versatile Gameroom/Media Room! Spacious Secondary Bedrooms - One with Walk-In Closet! Covered Back Patio Overlooks Fully Sodded Yard! Full Sprinkler System Included! Smart Home Package & Tankless Water Heater Also Included! Zo

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 51 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: D.R. Horton
• HOA & community: Part of Goodwin & Co HOA; Annual association fee of $600

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Security: Prewired for security; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Built by D.R. Horton; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick, cement siding, and stone exterior; Year built 2026
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Fence (back yard); Sprinkler/irrigation system; Porch; Patio; Private yard; Subdivision lot setting; Covered deck/patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Quartz countertops
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (17x14); Two secondary bedrooms on second floor (12x10 and 12x11); One additional game room on second floor (14x14)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Double vanity; High ceilings; Primary bedroom has a bath; Quartz counters; Kitchen/dining combined layout; Open living/dining area; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Tankless water heater

🏗️ New construction. The $281,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $337,084.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $282k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-672 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (14.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fields Store El (math 47% / reading 43%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 663 students, 63% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1790 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($274k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,198 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.54%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $337,084
• List price: $281,990
• Delta: -16.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
517 Wax Myrtle Way	0.06mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,041 (+10%)	0mo	$314,990	$154	74
553 Wax Myrtle Way	0.06mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,041 (+10%)	2mo	$314,990	$154	72
105 Rising Cedar Ln	0.12mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,042 (+10%)	4mo	$303,990	$149	69
25808 Robin Hood Ln	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (-4%)	9mo	$375,000	$209	63
25458 Camelot Ln	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,947 (+5%)	1mo	$499,000	$256	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-103,666
• Equity at exit: $50,260

10-year hold

• IRR: -68.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.80×
• Total profit: $-169,573
• Equity at exit: $29,145

Cash invested: $94,383 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1790
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,162 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,768
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$421 /mo · $5,056/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $-672

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,012

Max offer price $239,910

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-439	-5% $-555	+0% $-672	+5% $-788	+10% $-904
Rent	-10% $-842	-5% $-757	+0% $-672	+5% $-586	+10% $-501
Rate	-1.0pp $-502	-0.5pp $-586	base $-672	+0.5pp $-759	+1.0pp $-848

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,271
• Closing costs: $10,113
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $281,990 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $281,990 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $281,990 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $281,990 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $281,990 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $281,990 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $281,990 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $281,990 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $281,990 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $281,990 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $281,990 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $281,990 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $281,990 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $281,990 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    listed $281,990 Active 734-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,944
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,882
• − Property taxes: −$5,056
• − Insurance: −$1,685
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,076
• − Management: −$2,076
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$9,806
• Taxable loss: −$14,237
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,417
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,642/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This D.R. Horton-built home in Maple Woods is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good return on investment with minor updates to enhance curb appeal and energy efficiency.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and home value.
• Resale Replace window blinds — Improves home aesthetics and energy efficiency.
• Rental Install smart home package — Attracts tech-savvy renters and adds value.
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Fresh carpet improves comfort and adds value for both resale and rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Resale Replace window blinds — Improves home aesthetics and energy efficiency. ↑
• Rental Install smart home package — Attracts tech-savvy renters and adds value. ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Fresh carpet improves comfort and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $281,990 HARMLS