#815 W Main Street St · Mount Vernon, KY 40456

$69,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,472 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

0.25 ac lot ↓ 50% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

nice lot in town with water sewer and electric there.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Garage
• Listed 42 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $274 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($900 rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 2.9% in Mount Vernon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#321 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Rockcastle County (rural): math 23% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #102 of 165 in KY (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mt. Vernon Elementary (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #388 of 676 statewide, top 58%, 608 students, 69% FRL); Rockcastle County Middle School (math 20% / reading 43%, grade F, #125 of 217 statewide, top 63%, 578 students, 63% FRL); Rockcastle County High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #158 of 254 statewide, top 68%, 819 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Rockcastle County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 134% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,803 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.79%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $178,112
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
269 Old Somerset Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+2%)	5mo	$150,000	$100	76
995 West Main St	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,344 (-9%)	18mo	$94,000	$70	62
70 Jerri Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,290 (-12%)	16mo	$205,000	$159	50
24 Old Somerset Rd	0.47mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,372 (-7%)	16mo	$166,000	$121	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.84×
• Total profit: $55,494
• Equity at exit: $62,971

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.65×
• Total profit: $149,677
• Equity at exit: $135,800

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40456

• Home prices YoY: 11.6%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $496/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$189
• Net cashflow: $274

Break-even live

Break-even rent $553

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2025-06-17
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (53 chars)

   nice lot in town with water sewer and electric there.

2. 2025-06-17
   historical 53-char remark

   Show marketing remark (53 chars)

   nice lot in town with water sewer and electric there.

3. 2025-06-08
   price $69,900
4. 2025-05-13
   listed $29,900 53-char remark

   Show marketing remark (53 chars)

   nice lot in town with water sewer and electric there.

5. 2025-05-06
   listed $139,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $496 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $601 · $50/mo
• Expected delta: +$106/yr (+$9/mo · 21.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,797
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$496
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$864
• − Management: −$864
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $2,275
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$546
• After-tax cash flow: $2,740/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockcastle County
• NCES district ID: 2105070
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $30,809
• Composite: 25.55/100
• National rank: #7430
• State rank: #102 of 165 in KY

Livability — Mount Vernon

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #321
• US rank: #15406

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mount Vernon, KY
• Population (ZIP): 8,324

Population outlook (Rockcastle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,003 people
• By 2030: 16,913 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 16,504 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 15,697 · -7.7%
• By 2075: 13,724 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 11,369 · -33.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rockcastle

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.1) · D 12.8% · R 85.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -73.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.1 2020: R+69.9 2016: R+70.2 2012: R+63.2 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.63%
• Current HPI: 227.3369
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-50.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-17 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2025-06-17 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2025-06-08 Price Changed $69,900 ImagineMLS
• 2025-05-13 Listed $29,900 ImagineMLS
• 2025-05-06 Listed $139,900 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $496 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.