2193 Winterberry Ln · Cambridge, MD 21613

$259,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,762 sqft · Townhouse · 32 Days on market

Built 2025 Fair condition Garage $148/sqft · 35% below area Est $398k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located on the first floor of this two-story townhome is the open-concept main living area. It includes a modern kitchen with a center island overlooking the dining area and a spacious Great Room, along with glass-sliders to connect to the backyard. Upstairs are all three bedrooms to provide tranquil retreats, including the owner's suite with split walk-in closets and an attached bathroom.

Key facts

• Spacious great room
• Backyard
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT MAIN LIVING AREA
• MODERN KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM
• GLASS-SLIDERS
• BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $260k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $213 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (2.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.2% in Cambridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#255 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, employment F.
• Dorchester County Public Schools (rural): math 10% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #23 of 24 in MD (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Maple Elementary School (math 5% / reading 8%, grade F, #740 of 860 statewide, top 87%, 392 students, 100% FRL); Mace'S Lane Middle School (math 2% / reading 16%, grade F, #212 of 225 statewide, top 95%, 481 students, 100% FRL); Cambridge-South Dorchester High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #151 of 222 statewide, top 68%, 784 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 58% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 336 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 81 units permitted in Dorchester County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,545/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($53k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dorchester County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $252,190 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.52%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $398,246
• List price: $259,990
• Delta: -34.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2150 Winterberry Ln #20	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,544 (-12%)	8mo	$299,990	$194	72
2199 Winterberry Ln Unit K	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,544 (-12%)	8mo	$249,990	$162	67
2700 Willow Oak Dr Unit 111B	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,720 (-2%)	6mo	$226,000	$131	58
2700 Willow Oak Dr Unit 409E	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,643 (-7%)	3mo	$435,000	$265	53
2700 Willow Oak Dr Unit 304E	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,629 (-8%)	6mo	$407,500	$250	49
2700 Willow Oak Dr Unit 311B	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,509 (-14%)	6mo	$275,000	$182	38
2700 Willow Oak Dr Unit 410C	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,522 (-14%)	19mo	$415,000	$273	28
2700 Willow Oak Dr Unit 310C	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,519 (-14%)	21mo	$395,000	$260	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-28,495
• Equity at exit: $38,765

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-7,149
• Equity at exit: $22,479

Cash invested: $72,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 18 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 21.6 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $299,990 ($163/sqft)
• Median days on market: 78 d
• This list price: 6% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +38.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 21613

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Active inventory: 336
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,545 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$325 /mo · $3,900/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$534
• Net cashflow: $213

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,274

Max offer price $259,990

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $393	-5% $303	+0% $213	+5% $124	+10% $34
Rent	-10% $12	-5% $113	+0% $213	+5% $314	+10% $414
Rate	-1.0pp $344	-0.5pp $280	base $213	+0.5pp $146	+1.0pp $78

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,998
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2914 Winterberry Ln Cambridge, MD	4.0	3.5	2148	$2,600	$1.21	93d	1	0.04mi
2208 Winterberry Ln Unit I Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	1919	$2,450	$1.28	93d	1	0.12mi
2214 Winterberry Ln Unit I Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	1945	$2,450	$1.26	93d	1	0.14mi
2108 Winterberry Ln Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	1909	$2,500	$1.31	93d	1	0.15mi
2104 Winterberry Ln Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	1909	$2,500	$1.31	93d	1	0.16mi
2102 Winterberry Ln Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	1909	$2,800	$1.47	93d	1	0.17mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $331,440

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking)
• Home design: Camden Front Load Garage planFront-load garage
• Exterior features: 1,762 living area

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec new construction

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-30
   days on market $259,990 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-29
   days on market $259,990 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-28
   days on market $259,990 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-27
   days on market $259,990 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-26
   pricedays on market $259,990 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-22
   days on market $331,440 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-21
   days on market $331,440 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-21
   days on market $331,440 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-18
   days on market $331,440 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-17
    days on market $331,440 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-16
    days on market $331,440 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-15
    days on market $331,440 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-14
    remarks 392-char remark
14. 2026-06-14
    listed $331,440 Active 15 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 71% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,535
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,563
• − Property taxes: −$3,900
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,443
• − Management: −$2,443
• − Depreciation: −$7,563
• Taxable loss: −$1,677
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$403
• After-tax cash flow: $2,964/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $44,050–$79,290 screening

This townhouse requires moderate exterior repairs and some maintenance to improve its curb appeal and overall condition.

Repairs flagged

• Major siding — Significant discoloration and wear
• Minor landscaping — Some overgrown vegetation

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping improves curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 16/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Maple Elementary School F MD #740/860 Nat'l #40,442/41,679 Middle Mace's Lane Middle School F MD #212/225 Nat'l #13,515/14,009 High Cambridge-South Dorchester High School F MD #151/222 Nat'l #10,416/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dorchester County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400300
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $46,767
• Composite: 14.65/100
• National rank: #9404
• State rank: #23 of 24 in MD

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Cambridge

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #255
• US rank: #13046

Category grades

Amenities D Commute C Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cambridge, MD
• County: Dorchester · 31,699 people
• Population (ZIP): 18,167
• Household income: $53,171
• Rent vs Own: 47.7% rent · 52.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Dorchester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,699 people
• By 2030: 31,054 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 29,712 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 28,618 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 28,436 · -10.3%
• By 2100: 28,937 · -8.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 33% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Dorchester

• 2024 margin: R (+14.6) · D 41.6% · R 56.1% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.3pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -14.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.6 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+16.0 2012: R+6.6 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.03%
• Current HPI: 271.1127
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $331,440

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking)
• Home design: Camden Front Load Garage planFront-load garage
• Exterior features: 1,762 living area

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec new construction