1656 Nelson Ave · Indianapolis city (balance), IN 46203

$49,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 888 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1925 4,748 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Here's a Rare Find. A House with tons of Potential for Under $50,000. This 3 Bed 1 Bath Home near Garfield Park is ready for a full Renovation. Corner Lot with a 2 Car Detached Garage. Great for a Fix and Flip or Fix and Add to Your Rental Portfolio.

Key facts

• 4,748 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1925

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $623 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.9% vs local median 4.4% in Indianapolis city (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Indianapolis Public Schools (urban): math 14% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #286 of 301 in IN (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 500 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,906 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,151 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 59.20%
• DSCR: 3.63
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $111,888
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2876 Tindall St	0.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	912 (+3%)	2mo	$75,000	$82	77
3033 Asbury St	0.47mi	3/1.0	912 (+3%)	0mo	$139,900	$153	73
2541 Saint Peter St	0.52mi	3/1.0	910 (+2%)	2mo	$115,000	$126	70
1431 Finley Ave	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	858 (-3%)	3mo	$75,000	$87	69
1418 Finley Ave	0.41mi	2/1.0 (-1)	844 (-5%)	2mo	$55,000	$65	66
3057 Dawson St	0.54mi	3/1.0	936 (+5%)	1mo	$185,000	$198	65
2343 Saint Peter St	0.62mi	3/1.0	864 (-3%)	3mo	$113,000	$131	64
2237 Villa Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0	846 (-5%)	1mo	$175,000	$207	62
1120 Bacon St	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	832 (-6%)	2mo	$103,950	$125	52
1762 E Kelly St	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	984 (+11%)	2mo	$72,000	$73	50
2343 Cameron St	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	768 (-14%)	3mo	$150,000	$195	47
3134 Asbury St	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,008 (+14%)	4mo	$125,000	$124	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $31,486
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 56.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.59×
• Total profit: $78,097
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46203

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 500
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,309 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $748/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $623

Break-even live

Break-even rent $521

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $657	-5% $640	+0% $623	+5% $606	+10% $588
Rent	-10% $519	-5% $571	+0% $623	+5% $675	+10% $726
Rate	-1.0pp $648	-0.5pp $636	base $623	+0.5pp $610	+1.0pp $597

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1549 Nelson Ave Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.0	950	$1,380	$1.45	45d	1	0.16mi
2714 Dawson St Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.0	912	$1,500	$1.64	0d	1	0.17mi
1637 Hoefgen St Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0	780	$1,000	$1.28	45d	1	0.21mi
2633 S Randolph St Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	12d	1	0.24mi
2633 S Randolph St Unit b Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	25d	1	0.24mi
2469 Dawson St Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0	700	$949	$1.36	5d	4	0.28mi
1144 McDougal St Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.0	876	$1,500	$1.71	23d	1	0.46mi
1604 E Kelly St Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0	800	$1,025	$1.28	12d	1	0.51mi
1604 E Kelly St Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0	750	$1,025	$1.37	19d	1	0.51mi
1706 E Tabor St Unit 1708 Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	9d	1	0.56mi
3146 Asbury St Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0	728	$850	$1.17	9d	1	0.62mi
2948 Shelby St Unit D Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0	750	$1,025	$1.37	45d	1	0.65mi
2430 E Kelly St Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0	965	$949	$0.98	45d	1	0.74mi
3311 Linden St Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,150	$1.09	45d	1	0.83mi
2036 Calhoun St Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0	880	$1,200	$1.36	9d	1	0.83mi
1011 E Raymond St Indianapolis, IN	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,350	$1.23	25d	1	0.84mi
3334 Laurel St Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.0	1068	$1,200	$1.12	21d	1	0.87mi
3312 Olive St Indianapolis, IN	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	25d	1	0.90mi
3206 S Temple Ave Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0	784	$1,080	$1.38	25d	1	0.91mi
1815 Dawson St Unit 1815 Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0	1019	$999	$0.98	16d	1	0.98mi
1620 Norton Ave Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.0	928	$1,395	$1.50	19d	1	1.03mi
1620 Norton Ave Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.0	928	$1,395	$1.50	0d	1	1.03mi
1117 E Naomi St Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.5	976	$1,450	$1.49	0d	1	1.04mi
2760 S East St Indianapolis, IN	2.0–3.0	2.0	1072	$1,045	$0.97	5d	3	1.07mi
2830 S East St Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0	656	$1,200	$1.83	45d	1	1.07mi
1320 1/2 Norton Ave Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0	785	$920	$1.17	23d	1	1.08mi
2430 Albany St Apt 01 Beech Grove, IN	2.0	1.0	800	$899	$1.12	9d	1	1.12mi
1637 S State Ave Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.5	816	$900	$1.10	19d	1	1.13mi
3765 S State Ave Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0	700	$995	$1.42	25d	1	1.14mi
2430 Albany St Beech Grove, IN	2.0	1.0	800	$899	$1.12	16d	1	1.14mi
2315 Bischoff Dr Beech Grove, IN	2.0	1.0	1065	$848	$0.80	25d	2	1.15mi
265 E Southern Ave Indianapolis, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,150	$1.44	4d	2	1.17mi
272 Hoefgen St Unit 1336809P Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0	592	$2,045	$3.45	0d	1	1.17mi
1543 S State Ave Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0	1086	$1,100	$1.01	9d	1	1.19mi
1620 E Palmer St Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0	824	$1,200	$1.46	25d	1	1.20mi
1534 Dawson St Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,499	$1.44	25d	1	1.22mi
2209 Ransdell St Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0	710	$900	$1.27	45d	1	1.27mi
1503 Dawson St Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0	700	$1,200	$1.71	45d	1	1.28mi
620 E Beecher St Indianapolis, IN	3.0	2.0	1072	$1,639	$1.53	21d	1	1.29mi
2236 Ransdell St Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0	850	$1,150	$1.35	45d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2024-12-02
   status Pending
2. 2024-11-10
   listed $49,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,708
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$748
• − Insurance: −$1,047
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,257
• − Management: −$1,257
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $7,153
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,717
• After-tax cash flow: $5,757/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Indianapolis Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 1804770
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,034
• Composite: 13.69/100
• National rank: #9499
• State rank: #286 of 301 in IN

Livability — Indianapolis city (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Indianapolis city (balance), IN
• County: Marion County · 998,460 people
• City population: 881,119
• Metro: Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN
• Population (ZIP): 37,758
• Household income: $57,393
• Rent vs Own: 42.2% rent · 57.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1499.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,572 people
• By 2030: 1,065,727 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 1,141,577 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 1,208,920 · +17.9%
• By 2075: 1,367,288 · +33.3%
• By 2100: 1,438,201 · +40.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+27.7) · D 63.0% · R 35.3% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.7pp no change · 2008: 28.4pp · 2024: 27.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+27.7 2020: D+29.1 2016: D+22.8 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+28.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -127.37%
• Current HPI: 349.579
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.88%
• Metro: Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2024-12-02 Pending — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-10 Listed $49,900 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+23.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,594 · +36.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.