9 Sandburg Cr Cir · Ogdensburg, NY 13669

$89,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,700 sqft · Manufactured · 36 Days on market

Built 2006 Good condition 5,000 sqft lot Est $119k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully maintained and move-in ready! This spacious 1,700 sq. ft. manufactured home, built in 2007, is located in Morning Star Park in the quiet hamlet of Redmills, just minutes from Ogdensburg, and offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths with a comfortable, open layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. A lovely sunroom addition provides the perfect space to relax with your morning coffee, enjoy natural light year-round, or entertain guests. The property also includes a garage and an additional storage shed, offering plenty of room for your vehicle, tools, and extra storage needs. Situated on a corner lot, this home provides added space and privacy within the park setting. The ho

Key facts

• Sunroom addition
• Corner lot
• 5,000 sq ft lot

Tags

• SUNROOM ADDITION
• CORNER LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Cable available
• Home design: Single-story manufactured home; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Insulated windows; 7 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $361 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 5.3% in Ogdensburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#624 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Lisbon Central School District (rural): math 33% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #482 of 590 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 215 units permitted in St. Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($619 loan paydown + $955 appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• St. Lawrence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $86,815 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.30%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $119,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9606 Sh 37	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-14%)	17mo	$102,000	$70	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.07% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $24,997
• Equity at exit: $30,867

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.74×
• Total profit: $68,643
• Equity at exit: $41,263

Cash invested: $25,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13669

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,240 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$469
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,342/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $361

Break-even live

Break-even rent $783

Max offer price $89,500

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $423	-5% $392	+0% $361	+5% $330	+10% $299
Rent	-10% $263	-5% $312	+0% $361	+5% $410	+10% $459
Rate	-1.0pp $406	-0.5pp $384	base $361	+0.5pp $338	+1.0pp $314

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,375
• Closing costs: $2,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,500 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,500 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,500 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,500 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,500 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,500 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,500 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,500 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,500 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,500 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,500 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,500 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $89,500 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,500 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,500 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,500 Active 15 DOM
17. 2026-05-16
    listed $89,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,883
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,013
• − Property taxes: −$1,342
• − Insurance: −$448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,191
• − Management: −$1,191
• − Depreciation: −$2,604
• Taxable income: $3,095
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$743
• After-tax cash flow: $3,593/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home in a quiet park setting offers a good condition with minimal repairs needed and potential for value increase through exterior painting and gutter replacement.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace gutters — Improves drainage and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace gutters — Improves drainage and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lisbon Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3617430
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,098
• Composite: 36.79/100
• National rank: #4569
• State rank: #482 of 590 in NY

Livability — Ogdensburg

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #624
• US rank: #11365

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,615

Population outlook (St. Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 110,027 people
• By 2030: 107,455 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 100,492 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 94,254 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 80,175 · -27.1%
• By 2100: 63,140 · -42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Black 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Polish 6% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · German/W. Germanic 9% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lawrence

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 41.0% · R 59.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.3pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+11.7 2016: R+10.8 2012: D+16.6 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.07%
• Current HPI: 264.0261
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $89,500 SLCMLS