35 Sunset Dr · Noyack, NY 11963

$4,950,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 2025 10,019 sqft lot $4714/sqft · 206% above area Est $8012k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.4/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW CONSTRUCTION BAY POINT JEWEL BOX A new expression of Hamptons luxury arrives in Bay Point-elegant, exacting, and designed for the way people want to live now. Conceived by renowned architect Brian Glazer and built by NYCO, this exceptional new construction enjoys one of Sag Harbor's most coveted settings, just moments from the water, across from Long Beach's famed sunsets, and minutes to the Village. Spanning 5,200 +/- SF, the home offers 5 bedrooms, 5 full and 2 half baths, a 16'x35' heated gunite pool, attached single-car garage, and 3 marble fireplaces, including one on the rooftop deck and another outdoors for evenings that linger. Inside, no detail has been overlooked: an open-concept great room with tray ceilings and a wall of sliding glass doors flows effortlessly to the pool and patio, while 7" European white oak floors, oak-accented cabinetry, integrated ceiling lighting, luxury hardware, marble moments throughout, and a beautifully appointed kitchen with Bosch appliances, a Sub-Zero refrigerator and beverage center, and a Wolf range speak to craftsmanship you can see and feel. Every bedroom is ensuite, including a first-floor junior primary and a lower-level guest suite. The lower level adds a gym, recreation room, wet bar, wine storage, and a polished sense of ease. Behind the beauty, the house is equally well considered, with Marvin windows, wiring for automatic blinds, smart-home prewiring, 4 zones of AC, an 80-gallon expansion tank, and elevated finish details down to the vent covers and fixtures. In Bay Point, Sag Harbor's waterfront enclave, this is the kind of home that elevates every sunset, every beach day, boat ride, and every summer evening.

Key facts

• Rooftop deck
• New construction
• Luxury hardware

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• HEATED GUNITE POOL
• ROOFTOP DECK
• OPEN-CONCEPT GREAT ROOM
• EUROPEAN WHITE OAK FLOORS
• LUXURY HARDWARE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $4.95M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20k ($-236k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $2.11M (57.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.84M (62.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.84M (62.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.5% vs local median 7.1% in Noyack — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,084 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: schools C-, housing D+, amenities F.
• Sag Harbor Union Free School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #175 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.8%/yr); 66 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $18,449/mo this rent would consume 173% of the median local household income ($128k/yr) (locally 95% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $489k of equity ($34k loan paydown + $455k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$785k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($4.80M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $1.43M; list at $4.95M implies a 247% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,844,921 (62.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 63% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.37% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.00%
• DSCR: 0.24
• GRM: 22.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $8,012,432
• List price: $4,950,000
• Delta: -38.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7 Windermere Dr	0.17mi	2/1.0	990 (-6%)	13mo	$1,450,000	$1,465	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.19% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $1,270,086
• Equity at exit: $4,168,791

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.54×
• Total profit: $4,906,246
• Equity at exit: $8,697,913

Cash invested: $1,386,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11963

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Rents YoY: 10.8%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 22.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $18,449 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$25,958
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$6,188 /mo · $74,250/yr
• Insurance: −$2,062
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,874
• Net cashflow: $-19,633

Break-even live

Break-even rent $43,302

Max offer price $2,109,007

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-16,213	-5% $-17,923	+0% $-19,633	+5% $-21,344	+10% $-23,054
Rent	-10% $-21,091	-5% $-20,362	+0% $-19,633	+5% $-18,905	+10% $-18,176
Rate	-1.0pp $-17,141	-0.5pp $-18,374	base $-19,633	+0.5pp $-20,916	+1.0pp $-22,221

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,237,500
• Closing costs: $148,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
47 Cliff Dr Sag Harbor, NY	3.0	2.0	1360	$8,000	$5.88	20d	1	0.17mi
95 Main St Unit 2 Sag Harbor, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$62,400	$62.40	23d	1	1.01mi
95 Main St Unit 3 Sag Harbor, NY	1.0	1.0	1000	$48,000	$48.00	23d	1	1.01mi
364 Main St Unit B Sag Harbor, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$35,000	$29.17	23d	1	1.06mi
35 Bayberry Ln Sag Harbor, NY	3.0	1.0	1040	$4,500	$4.33	45d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $4,950,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $4,950,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $4,950,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $4,950,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $4,950,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $4,950,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   price $4,950,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $5,199,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $5,199,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $5,199,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $5,199,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $5,199,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $5,199,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $5,199,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $5,199,000 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-04-22
    listed $5,199,000 Active 1699-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1699 chars)

    NEW CONSTRUCTION BAY POINT JEWEL BOX A new expression of Hamptons luxury arrives in Bay Point-elegant, exacting, and designed for the way people want to live now. Conceived by renowned architect Brian Glazer and built by NYCO, this exceptional new construction enjoys one of Sag Harbor's most coveted settings, just moments from the water, across from Long Beach's famed sunsets, and minutes to the Village. Spanning 5,200 +/- SF, the home offers 5 bedrooms, 5 full and 2 half baths, a 16'x35' heated gunite pool, attached single-car garage, and 3 marble fireplaces, including one on the rooftop deck and another outdoors for evenings that linger. Inside, no detail has been overlooked: an open-concept great room with tray ceilings and a wall of sliding glass doors flows effortlessly to the pool and patio, while 7" European white oak floors, oak-accented cabinetry, integrated ceiling lighting, luxury hardware, marble moments throughout, and a beautifully appointed kitchen with Bosch appliances, a Sub-Zero refrigerator and beverage center, and a Wolf range speak to craftsmanship you can see and feel. Every bedroom is ensuite, including a first-floor junior primary and a lower-level guest suite. The lower level adds a gym, recreation room, wet bar, wine storage, and a polished sense of ease. Behind the beauty, the house is equally well considered, with Marvin windows, wiring for automatic blinds, smart-home prewiring, 4 zones of AC, an 80-gallon expansion tank, and elevated finish details down to the vent covers and fixtures. In Bay Point, Sag Harbor's waterfront enclave, this is the kind of home that elevates every sunset, every beach day, boat ride, and every summer evening.

17. 2023-12-18
    soldstatus $1,425,000
18. 2009-11-25
    soldstatus $450,000
19. 2001-05-11
    soldstatus $277,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $221,391
• − Mortgage interest: −$277,277
• − Property taxes: −$74,250
• − Insurance: −$24,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$17,711
• − Management: −$17,711
• − Depreciation: −$144,000
• Taxable loss: −$334,309
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$80,234
• After-tax cash flow: $-155,367/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sag Harbor Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3625380
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $81,547
• Composite: 55.69/100
• National rank: #1222
• State rank: #175 of 590 in NY

Livability — Noyack

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1084
• US rank: #21915

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Noyack, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 8,390
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 8,390
• Household income: $127,746
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 95.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.19%
• Current HPI: 499.3304
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.76%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1773.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $5,199,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $1,425,000 Public Records
• 2009-11-25 Sold (Public Records) $450,000 Public Records
• 2001-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $277,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $4,715 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.