602 Pine Tree Ln · East Berlin, PA 17301

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2004

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Single floor living at its finest! Built with ease in mind, this wonderful home is nestled in the Pine Run Retirement Community, a 55 and over community. It has 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. Open kitchen concept that flows right into the living room. There is a private patio off the back of the home and this particular home has an oversized 2 car (fits 3 cars in easily) garage! This is the biggest in the entire community that I have seen! (Items in garage will be removed and garage to be swept!)

Key facts

• A/c and heat
• Crawl space
• Block foundation

Tags

• OVERSIZED ATTACHED GARAGE
• FANTASTIC SUNROOM
• A/C AND HEAT
• BLOCK FOUNDATION
• CRAWL SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property condition listed as very good; Ownership interest: ground rent; Property manager present
• Financial info: Ground rent amount: monthly payment applies
• HOA & community: HOA/association covers sewer, water, trash, and snow removal; Association fee frequency: unknown; Ground rent payment monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Attached side-entry garage with inside access; Garage door opener; Two garage/parking spaces (attached)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable internet available; Cable TV and phone service available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story (1 level); Located in a 55+ senior community (age requirement 55)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Crawl space foundation with block; Make/Model: Pine Gove (mobile home)
• Exterior features: Porch(es); Not in a federal flood zone; Accessibility features including 36+ inch wide halls, grab bars, level main entry with no stairs

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Microwave; Oven - self-cleaning; Electric range/oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Disposal; Exhaust fan; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; Electric heating fuel; Electric hot water; 200+ amp electrical service
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Combination dining/living area; Combination kitchen/dining area; Crown moldings; Kitchen island; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Beamed ceilings; Vaulted ceilings; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Gas dryer; Main-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-232 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (20.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (29.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (29.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#1,245 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Conewago Valley SD (suburban): math 39% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #215 of 539 in PA (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Oxford Ms (math 21% / reading 54%, grade F, #292 of 512 statewide, top 58%, 601 students, 45% FRL); New Oxford Shs (math 80% / reading 10%, grade D-, #192 of 437 statewide, top 44%, 1,249 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 403 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Adams County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $199k implies a 170% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,519 (29.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.00%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.34% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $46,731
• Equity at exit: $129,418

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.66×
• Total profit: $148,028
• Equity at exit: $238,514

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17301

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,395 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$208 /mo · $2,493/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $-232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,689

Max offer price $158,006

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-119	-5% $-176	+0% $-232	+5% $-288	+10% $-345
Rent	-10% $-342	-5% $-287	+0% $-232	+5% $-177	+10% $-122
Rate	-1.0pp $-132	-0.5pp $-181	base $-232	+0.5pp $-284	+1.0pp $-336

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-18
   listed $199,000 Active
2. 2019-10-11
   soldstatus $73,600 Closed 499-char remark

   Show marketing remark (499 chars)

   Single floor living at its finest! Built with ease in mind, this wonderful home is nestled in the Pine Run Retirement Community, a 55 and over community. It has 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. Open kitchen concept that flows right into the living room. There is a private patio off the back of the home and this particular home has an oversized 2 car (fits 3 cars in easily) garage! This is the biggest in the entire community that I have seen! (Items in garage will be removed and garage to be swept!)

3. 2019-09-26
   status Pending 499-char remark

   Show marketing remark (499 chars)

   Single floor living at its finest! Built with ease in mind, this wonderful home is nestled in the Pine Run Retirement Community, a 55 and over community. It has 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. Open kitchen concept that flows right into the living room. There is a private patio off the back of the home and this particular home has an oversized 2 car (fits 3 cars in easily) garage! This is the biggest in the entire community that I have seen! (Items in garage will be removed and garage to be swept!)

4. 2019-09-23
   listed $69,000 Active 499-char remark

   Show marketing remark (499 chars)

   Single floor living at its finest! Built with ease in mind, this wonderful home is nestled in the Pine Run Retirement Community, a 55 and over community. It has 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. Open kitchen concept that flows right into the living room. There is a private patio off the back of the home and this particular home has an oversized 2 car (fits 3 cars in easily) garage! This is the biggest in the entire community that I have seen! (Items in garage will be removed and garage to be swept!)

5. 2005-02-19
   historical
6. 2004-08-20
   listed $149,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,493 · $208/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,819 · $235/mo
• Expected delta: +$326/yr (+$27/mo · 13.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,742
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,493
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,339
• − Management: −$1,339
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$6,361
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,527
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,258/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conewago Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4206550
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $54,603
• Composite: 41.08/100
• National rank: #3572
• State rank: #215 of 539 in PA

Livability — East Berlin

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #1245
• US rank: #14958

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,122

Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 102,494 people
• By 2030: 101,890 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 98,417 · -4.0%
• By 2050: 92,014 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 76,128 · -25.7%
• By 2100: 58,931 · -42.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.6) · D 32.7% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.1pp toward R · 2008: -19.6pp · 2024: -33.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.6 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+36.4 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+19.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.34%
• Current HPI: 282.2134
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+32.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $199,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-10-11 Sold (MLS) $73,600 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-09-26 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-09-23 Listed $69,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-02-19 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-08-20 Listed $149,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,493 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.