2231 Vargas St · Magnolia, TX 77316

$282,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,830 sqft · Land · 80 Days on market

Built 2026 6,307 sqft lot $154/sqft · 31% below area Est $407k · 31% under $115/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brand-new home in a prime location near Highway 249! This beautiful property comes complete with gutters and a sprinkler system. The thoughtfully designed layout features a dining area and an open-concept kitchen overlooking the spacious living room, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Offering 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this home combines style, comfort, and convenience.

Key facts

• Gutters
• Open-concept kitchen
• Dining area

Tags

• PRIME LOCATION
• GUTTERS
• SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• DINING AREA
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $282k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-157 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (27.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (27.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia El (math 22% / reading 28%, grade F, #3,013 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 649 students, 64% FRL); Magnolia J H (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 1,103 students, 57% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2300 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($265k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $205,486 (27.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.39%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $406,990
• List price: $282,000
• Delta: -30.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-61,018
• Equity at exit: $42,047

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-86,726
• Equity at exit: $24,382

Cash invested: $78,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2300
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,055 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,479
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $830/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$115
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,254

Max offer price $254,237

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2	-5% $-77	+0% $-157	+5% $-237	+10% $-317
Rent	-10% $-319	-5% $-238	+0% $-157	+5% $-76	+10% $5
Rate	-1.0pp $-15	-0.5pp $-85	base $-157	+0.5pp $-230	+1.0pp $-305

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,500
• Closing costs: $8,460
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $115 · $1,380/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $282,000 Pending 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $282,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $282,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $282,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $282,000 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $282,000 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-05-08
   price $282,000 385-char remark

   Show marketing remark (385 chars)

   Brand-new home in a prime location near Highway 249! This beautiful property comes complete with gutters and a sprinkler system. The thoughtfully designed layout features a dining area and an open-concept kitchen overlooking the spacious living room, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Offering 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this home combines style, comfort, and convenience.

8. 2026-03-19
   listed $285,000 Active 385-char remark

   Show marketing remark (385 chars)

   Brand-new home in a prime location near Highway 249! This beautiful property comes complete with gutters and a sprinkler system. The thoughtfully designed layout features a dining area and an open-concept kitchen overlooking the spacious living room, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Offering 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this home combines style, comfort, and convenience.

9. 2026-01-30
   soldstatus Closed 535-char remark

   Show marketing remark (535 chars)

   BRAND NEW Village Builders Richmond Collection "Bellaire" Plan with Elevation "E" in Colton! This new single-family home has a modern, open-concept layout at the heart of the home. It includes a chef-ready kitchen, an intimate breakfast room and a family room with convenient patio access. A study off the foyer provides an ideal set-up for work. At opposite sides of the home is the tranquil owner’s suite and two secondary bedrooms framing a full-sized bathroom. Rounding out the space is a two-car garage.

10. 2025-12-22
    status Pending 535-char remark

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    BRAND NEW Village Builders Richmond Collection "Bellaire" Plan with Elevation "E" in Colton! This new single-family home has a modern, open-concept layout at the heart of the home. It includes a chef-ready kitchen, an intimate breakfast room and a family room with convenient patio access. A study off the foyer provides an ideal set-up for work. At opposite sides of the home is the tranquil owner’s suite and two secondary bedrooms framing a full-sized bathroom. Rounding out the space is a two-car garage.

11. 2025-12-22
    price $400,990 535-char remark

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    BRAND NEW Village Builders Richmond Collection "Bellaire" Plan with Elevation "E" in Colton! This new single-family home has a modern, open-concept layout at the heart of the home. It includes a chef-ready kitchen, an intimate breakfast room and a family room with convenient patio access. A study off the foyer provides an ideal set-up for work. At opposite sides of the home is the tranquil owner’s suite and two secondary bedrooms framing a full-sized bathroom. Rounding out the space is a two-car garage.

12. 2025-12-15
    price $278,540 535-char remark

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    BRAND NEW Village Builders Richmond Collection "Bellaire" Plan with Elevation "E" in Colton! This new single-family home has a modern, open-concept layout at the heart of the home. It includes a chef-ready kitchen, an intimate breakfast room and a family room with convenient patio access. A study off the foyer provides an ideal set-up for work. At opposite sides of the home is the tranquil owner’s suite and two secondary bedrooms framing a full-sized bathroom. Rounding out the space is a two-car garage.

13. 2025-12-08
    price $292,240 535-char remark

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    BRAND NEW Village Builders Richmond Collection "Bellaire" Plan with Elevation "E" in Colton! This new single-family home has a modern, open-concept layout at the heart of the home. It includes a chef-ready kitchen, an intimate breakfast room and a family room with convenient patio access. A study off the foyer provides an ideal set-up for work. At opposite sides of the home is the tranquil owner’s suite and two secondary bedrooms framing a full-sized bathroom. Rounding out the space is a two-car garage.

14. 2025-12-05
    listed $299,740 Active

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    BRAND NEW Village Builders Richmond Collection "Bellaire" Plan with Elevation "E" in Colton! This new single-family home has a modern, open-concept layout at the heart of the home. It includes a chef-ready kitchen, an intimate breakfast room and a family room with convenient patio access. A study off the foyer provides an ideal set-up for work. At opposite sides of the home is the tranquil owner’s suite and two secondary bedrooms framing a full-sized bathroom. Rounding out the space is a two-car garage.

15. 2025-12-05
    listed $299,740 Active 535-char remark

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    BRAND NEW Village Builders Richmond Collection "Bellaire" Plan with Elevation "E" in Colton! This new single-family home has a modern, open-concept layout at the heart of the home. It includes a chef-ready kitchen, an intimate breakfast room and a family room with convenient patio access. A study off the foyer provides an ideal set-up for work. At opposite sides of the home is the tranquil owner’s suite and two secondary bedrooms framing a full-sized bathroom. Rounding out the space is a two-car garage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $830 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,161 · $430/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,331/yr (+$361/mo · 521.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,658
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,796
• − Property taxes: −$830
• − Insurance: −$1,410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,973
• − Management: −$1,973
• − HOA: −$1,380
• − Depreciation: −$8,204
• Taxable loss: −$6,907
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,658
• After-tax cash flow: $-228/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $282,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-12-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $400,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-15 Price Changed $278,540 HARMLS
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $292,240 HARMLS
• 2025-12-05 Listed $299,740 Zillow
• 2025-12-05 Listed $299,740 HARMLS