178 Alexander Rd · New Britain, CT 06053

$315,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 798 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1952 6,098 sqft lot Est $247k · 28% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

*Nothing to do but move in* spacious cape w/huge master suite. Newer roof, vinyl siding & thermal windows. Remodeled kitchen w/vaulted ceilings. Finished basement not included in sf. Close to highways, shopping & parks.

Key facts

• Updated appliances
• Built-in cabinetry
• Finished basement

Tags

• UPDATED APPLIANCES
• REPLACED SKYLIGHTS
• UPDATED FLOORING
• FINISHED BASEMENT
• BUILT-IN CABINETRY
• HATCHWAY FOR EASY ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-336 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (18.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (26.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#67 in CT, #4,936 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: crime D, employment D, schools F.
• New Britain School District (suburban): math 6% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #153 of 153 in CT (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 69 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,867 units permitted in Capitol Planning Region in 2024 (1,399 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $315k implies a 110% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $231,852 (26.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.58%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $246,582
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
35 Cianci Rd	0.25mi	3/1.0	832 (+4%)	11mo	$250,000	$300	72
80 Nachilly Dr	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	832 (+4%)	9mo	$290,000	$349	72
256 Alexander Rd	0.15mi	3/1.0	884 (+11%)	10mo	$255,000	$288	66
266 Cianci Rd	0.19mi	2/1.0 (-1)	910 (+14%)	10mo	$281,000	$309	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $154,772
• Equity at exit: $283,777

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.47×
• Total profit: $482,817
• Equity at exit: $611,976

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06053

• Home prices YoY: 15.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 69
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,319 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$385 /mo · $4,619/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $-336

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,744

Max offer price $255,568

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
46 Brittany Farms Rd New Britain, CT	1.0–2.0	1.0	820	$2,025	$2.47	1d	1	0.63mi
80 Batterson Park Rd Farmington, CT	2.0	1.0–2.0	900	$4,793	$5.32	1d	98	0.86mi
15 Farm Springs Rd Farmington, CT	2.0	2.0	864	$3,599	$4.16	1d	18	1.16mi
1600 New Britain Ave Farmington, CT	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1112	$2,595	$2.33	1d	1	1.32mi
87 Jackson St New Britain, CT	2.0	1.0	800	$1,700	$2.12	43d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-03-25
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-03-19
   listed $315,000 Active
3. 2020-12-21
   soldstatus $150,000
4. 2007-04-30
   soldstatus $178,000
5. 2007-04-27
   soldstatus $178,000 227-char remark

   Show marketing remark (227 chars)

   *Nothing to do but move in* spacious cape w/huge master suite. Newer roof, vinyl siding & thermal windows. Remodeled kitchen w/vaulted ceilings. Finished basement not included in sf. Close to highways, shopping & parks.

6. 2007-02-13
   listed $179,900 227-char remark

   Show marketing remark (227 chars)

   *Nothing to do but move in* spacious cape w/huge master suite. Newer roof, vinyl siding & thermal windows. Remodeled kitchen w/vaulted ceilings. Finished basement not included in sf. Close to highways, shopping & parks.

7. 1995-06-05
   soldstatus $61,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,619 · $385/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,680 · $473/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,061/yr (+$88/mo · 23.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,822
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$4,619
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,226
• − Management: −$2,226
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$9,632
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,312
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,726/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Britain School District
• NCES district ID: 0902670
• Math proficiency: 6% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,827
• Composite: 9.95/100
• National rank: #9816
• State rank: #153 of 153 in CT

Livability — New Britain

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #4936

Category grades

Amenities C Commute B Cost of living A Crime D Employment D Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Britain, CT
• County: Hartford County · 754,208 people
• City population: 66,322
• Metro: Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, CT
• Population (ZIP): 36,774
• Household income: $62,645
• Rent vs Own: 48.9% rent · 51.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1835.0

Population outlook (Capitol County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 1,063,519

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 13% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 25% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 19% Lithuanian 3% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 26% Russian/Polish/Slavic 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Capitol

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.9) · D 60.1% · R 38.2% · Other 1.7%
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 65.76%
• Current HPI: 491.4724
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.94%
• Metro: Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+412.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $315,000 Smart MLS
• 2020-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2007-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $178,000 Public Records
• 2007-04-27 Sold (MLS) $178,000 Smart MLS
• 2007-02-13 Listed $179,900 Smart MLS
• 1995-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $61,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,619 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.