35 Haver Rd · Kerhonkson, NY 12461

$495,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2005 3.20 ac lot Est $660k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Easy living at this 3 bedroom, 2 full bath ranch on 3+ acres. Built in 2005 this home has the perfect layout, common areas in the middle, master bedroom suite on one side, 2 bedrooms and guest bath on the other. Kitchen is equipped with ample cabinet space, dishwasher, washer/dryer in closet and access to the back deck. Master bedroom is spacious with walk in closet, large private bath with double sinks and shower. The other 2 bedrooms are comfortable sizes and share the guest bath with tub. The walk out, unfinished, full basement has the potential to be partially finished out and made into a great space perfect as a media room, in home office or work out area. 1 car drive under garage is accessed from the basement. Enjoy the nature that surrounds you from the back deck, facing the rear of the property, providing a private feel.

Key facts

• Over 3 private acres
• Walk-in closet
• Private bath

Tags

• OVER 3 PRIVATE ACRES
• ONE-LEVEL LIVING
• SPACIOUS PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATH
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: 03-re1; Lot size approximately 3.2 acres

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with one garage space; Driveway, gravel parking; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank; 200+ amp electric service with underground service; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Concrete perimeter foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Rectangular, sloped lot; Paved road access; Property has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Freezer, Microwave, Oven, Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating with baseboard units; Window cooling units
• Interior features: Insulated windows; Freezer, Microwave, Oven, Refrigerator; Water heater
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet with washer hookup and electric dryer hookup (main level); Washer/Dryer listed among appliances

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $495k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $552 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $480k (3.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $480k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.4% in Kerhonkson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#552 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Onteora Central School District (rural): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #288 of 755 in NY (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (1.7% local appreciation)).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $139k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $230k; list at $495k implies a 115% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $480,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.78%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $659,776
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1979 County Route 3	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,231 (-9%)	22mo	$225,000	$183	39
184 Haver Rd	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (+12%)	13mo	$738,148	$488	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $62,300
• Equity at exit: $188,026

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $215,077
• Equity at exit: $265,323

Cash invested: $138,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12461

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,596
• Tax from tax record: −$437 /mo · $5,250/yr
• Insurance: −$206
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,008
• Net cashflow: $552

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,101

Max offer price $495,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $833	-5% $693	+0% $552	+5% $412	+10% $272
Rent	-10% $173	-5% $363	+0% $552	+5% $742	+10% $932
Rate	-1.0pp $802	-0.5pp $678	base $552	+0.5pp $424	+1.0pp $294

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $123,750
• Closing costs: $14,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
421 Brown Rd Olivebridge, NY	3.0	2.0	1120	$4,800	$4.29	45d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $495,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $495,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $495,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $495,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   listed $495,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,250 · $437/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,808 · $567/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,558/yr (+$130/mo · 29.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,728
• − Property taxes: −$5,250
• − Insurance: −$2,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,608
• − Management: −$4,608
• − Depreciation: −$14,400
• Taxable loss: −$1,469
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$352
• After-tax cash flow: $6,982/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Onteora Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3621840
• Math proficiency: 58% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $56,997
• Composite: 52.17/100
• National rank: #3482
• State rank: #288 of 755 in NY

Livability — Kerhonkson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #552
• US rank: #9921

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,232
• Population (ZIP): 1,426

Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 8% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.73%
• Current HPI: 346.6673
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+80.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $495,000 HVCRMLS
• 2020-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 2020-09-11 Sold (MLS) $230,000 HVCRMLS
• 2020-07-07 Listed $275,000 HVCRMLS

Property tax history

+15.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,250 · +16.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.