204 Nubbin Ridge Rd · Wallburg, NC 27265

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1996 1.57 ac lot Est $257k · 22% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great home in the Ledford School District. Roof only 5 years old and septic recently pumped. Solid brick crawlspace and home currently has solid metal handrails at the front door and a wheelchair ramp to the side door with a large deck. Great lot with over one and half acres. Very peaceful and quiet. Home needs a little TLC (paint and carpet) to be perfect. Sold "as is".

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Remodeled
• Ample cabinetry

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• REMODELED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electric water heater
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); One story; Built in 1996; Existing structure
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Garden; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Deadbolt locks; Vaulted ceilings; Primary bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer connection; Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $223 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (11.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (11.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.1% in Wallburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#315 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Davidson County Schools (rural): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #62 of 178 in NC (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 276 active listings in the ZIP; 990 units permitted in Davidson County in 2024 (54 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Davidson County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $200k implies a 321% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,190 (11.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.79%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $257,488
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5465 N Nc Highway 109	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,079 (-12%)	6mo	$225,000	$209	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-19,357
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-3,384
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27265

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 276
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,772 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $537/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $223

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,489

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $199,900 Pending 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   price $199,900 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $208,900 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $208,900 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $208,900 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $208,900 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $208,900 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   price $208,900 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,900 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $209,900 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $209,900 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,900 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,900 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,900 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,900 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,900 Active 58 DOM
17. 2026-04-20
    price $211,900
18. 2026-04-06
    status Active
19. 2026-04-06
    price $209,900
20. 2026-03-17
    status Pending
21. 2026-03-13
    listed $214,900 Active
22. 2015-10-05
    soldstatus $47,500 Sold 383-char remark

    Show marketing remark (383 chars)

    Great home in the Ledford School District. Roof only 5 years old and septic recently pumped. Solid brick crawlspace and home currently has solid metal handrails at the front door and a wheelchair ramp to the side door with a large deck. Great lot with over one and half acres. Very peaceful and quiet. Home needs a little TLC (paint and carpet) to be perfect. Sold "as is".

23. 2015-10-05
    soldstatus $47,500

    Show marketing remark (383 chars)

    Great home in the Ledford School District. Roof only 5 years old and septic recently pumped. Solid brick crawlspace and home currently has solid metal handrails at the front door and a wheelchair ramp to the side door with a large deck. Great lot with over one and half acres. Very peaceful and quiet. Home needs a little TLC (paint and carpet) to be perfect. Sold "as is".

24. 2015-07-18
    status Due Diligence Period 383-char remark

    Show marketing remark (383 chars)

    Great home in the Ledford School District. Roof only 5 years old and septic recently pumped. Solid brick crawlspace and home currently has solid metal handrails at the front door and a wheelchair ramp to the side door with a large deck. Great lot with over one and half acres. Very peaceful and quiet. Home needs a little TLC (paint and carpet) to be perfect. Sold "as is".

25. 2015-05-23
    listed $64,000 Active 383-char remark

    Show marketing remark (383 chars)

    Great home in the Ledford School District. Roof only 5 years old and septic recently pumped. Solid brick crawlspace and home currently has solid metal handrails at the front door and a wheelchair ramp to the side door with a large deck. Great lot with over one and half acres. Very peaceful and quiet. Home needs a little TLC (paint and carpet) to be perfect. Sold "as is".

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $537 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,639 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,102/yr (+$92/mo · 205.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,263
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$537
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,701
• − Management: −$1,701
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$688
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$165
• After-tax cash flow: $2,847/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Davidson County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3701140
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,696
• Composite: 42.76/100
• National rank: #3157
• State rank: #62 of 178 in NC

Livability — Wallburg

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #315
• US rank: #13028

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Guilford County · 487,190 people
• Metro: Greensboro-High Point, NC
• Population (ZIP): 48,798
• Household income: $73,981
• Rent vs Own: 30.6% rent · 69.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1095.0

Population outlook (Davidson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 167,156 people
• By 2030: 167,216 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 164,524 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 157,229 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 138,084 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 112,729 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Davidson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+47.5 2016: R+49.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -207.73%
• Current HPI: 217.0263
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.38%
• Metro: Greensboro-High Point, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+231.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $211,900 Triad MLS
• 2026-04-06 Relisted — Triad MLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $209,900 Triad MLS
• 2026-03-17 Pending — Triad MLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $214,900 Triad MLS
• 2015-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $47,500 Public Records
• 2015-10-05 Sold (MLS) $47,500 Triad MLS
• 2015-07-18 Pending — Triad MLS
• 2015-05-23 Listed $64,000 Triad MLS

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $537 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.