Clayton 198 River Valley Estates Plan · Marion, OH 43302

$109,770

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 21 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Don't miss out on this brand new 3 bedroom 2 bath home built for comfort, convenience and modern living. Open concept living space. Beautiful kitchen with an island and pantry storage. Spacious master suite with stand up shower. Energy-efficient and low maintenace.

Key facts

• Beautiful kitchen
• Pantry storage
• Stand up shower

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• BEAUTIFUL KITCHEN
• ISLAND
• PANTRY STORAGE
• SPACIOUS MASTER SUITE
• STAND UP SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $109,770

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gas; Central air
• Home design: Plan home (Clayton 198 River Valley Estates)
• Construction: Living area 1216 (listed)
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Active status listing (Plan: Clayton 198 River Valley Estates)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $422 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 6.9% in Marion — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#704 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D+, amenities F.
• River Valley Local (rural): math 60% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #264 of 656 in OH (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 210 active listings in the ZIP; 53 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $758 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $108,123 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.48%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $9,113
• Equity at exit: $16,367

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $42,636
• Equity at exit: $9,491

Cash invested: $30,736 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 43302

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,494 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$137 /mo · $1,647/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $422

Break-even live

Break-even rent $960

Max offer price $109,770

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,442
• Closing costs: $3,293
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $109,770 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,770 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,770 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,770 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,770 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $109,770 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $109,770 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,770 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,770 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,770 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,770 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,770 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,770 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,770 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,933
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,149
• − Property taxes: −$1,647
• − Insurance: −$549
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,435
• − Management: −$1,435
• − Depreciation: −$3,193
• Taxable income: $3,526
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$846
• After-tax cash flow: $4,218/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand new Clayton River Valley Estates home is move-in ready with excellent condition and modern features, offering a great value for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value.
• Both Replace window treatments — Freshens look and improves energy efficiency.
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability.
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Improves safety and curb appeal.
• Both Upgrade appliances — Modernizes kitchen and increases value.
• Both Add a small patio or deck — Increases outdoor living space and appeal.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Freshens look and improves energy efficiency. ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability. ↑
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Improves safety and curb appeal. ↑
• Both Upgrade appliances — Modernizes kitchen and increases value. ↑
• Both Add a small patio or deck — Increases outdoor living space and appeal. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: River Valley Local
• NCES district ID: 3904844
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $55,645
• Composite: 52.44/100
• National rank: #1574
• State rank: #264 of 656 in OH

Livability — Marion

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #704
• US rank: #12605

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 53,702 people
• City population: 53,702
• Metro: Marion, OH
• Population (ZIP): 53,702
• Household income: $55,057
• Rent vs Own: 36.6% rent · 63.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1554.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,078 people
• By 2030: 60,049 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 55,413 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 50,604 · -18.5%
• By 2075: 40,162 · -35.3%
• By 2100: 29,105 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 6% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.4) · D 28.9% · R 70.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.5pp toward R · 2008: -8.9pp · 2024: -41.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.4 2020: R+38.6 2016: R+34.4 2012: R+7.6 2008: R+8.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.52%
• Current HPI: 223.5344
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Marion, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B