Herrera Plan · Lavon, TX 75166

$317,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,029 sqft · SingleFamily · 292 Days on market

Excellent condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Herrera is a smartly designed single-story home that blends flexibility and comfort across 2,029-2,064 square feet. With 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and plenty of open living space, this layout is perfect for growing families, remote workers, or anyone seeking the ease of main-level living.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 291 days

🏗️ New construction. The $317,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $374,419.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $318k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-392 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $318k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $278k (12.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $278k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#588 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 750 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 43d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 292 days — a 12% lower offer ($280k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $277,947 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 292 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.48%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $374,419
• List price: $317,990
• Delta: -15.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
724 Grand Dale Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0	2,029 (0%)	0mo	$336,990	$166	96
9920 County Road 540	0.20mi	4/2.0	2,123 (+5%)	1mo	$459,000	$216	82
746 Grand Dale Dr	0.15mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,105 (+4%)	0mo	$374,990	$178	80
726 Grand Dale Dr	0.09mi	4/3.0	2,184 (+8%)	0mo	$348,990	$160	79
764 Grand Dale Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,877 (-8%)	1mo	$324,990	$173	76
755 Grand Dale Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,837 (-10%)	2mo	$349,990	$191	74
762 Grand Dale Dr	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,184 (+8%)	2mo	$349,990	$160	71
708 Tawny TURN	0.33mi	4/3.0	2,186 (+8%)	1mo	$394,990	$181	66
291 Bright Alcove Ct	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,889 (-7%)	2mo	$346,990	$184	64
292 Bright Alcove Ct	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,768 (-13%)	1mo	$337,990	$191	53
1195 Little Hills Way	0.75mi	4/3.0	2,131 (+5%)	0mo	$344,990	$162	53
1169 Little Hills Way	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,800 (-11%)	1mo	$326,990	$182	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-85,581
• Equity at exit: $55,827

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-106,480
• Equity at exit: $32,373

Cash invested: $104,837 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 174 active · 41 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.5 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $339,995 ($174/sqft)
• Median days on market: 92 d
• This list price: 28% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75166

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Active inventory: 750
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,779 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,963
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$468 /mo · $5,616/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$584
• Net cashflow: $-392

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,275

Max offer price $317,733

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-133	-5% $-262	+0% $-392	+5% $-521	+10% $-650
Rent	-10% $-611	-5% $-502	+0% $-392	+5% $-282	+10% $-172
Rate	-1.0pp $-203	-0.5pp $-297	base $-392	+0.5pp $-489	+1.0pp $-587

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,605
• Closing costs: $11,233
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
312 Silent Pond Park Unit 312 Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	2016	$2,900	$1.44	93d	1	0.17mi
759 Gentle Bird Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2400	$2,500	$1.04	23d	1	0.37mi
257 Hope Orchards Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2164	$2,500	$1.16	42d	1	0.46mi
252 Hope Orchards Dr Lavon, TX	5.0	3.0	2957	$3,175	$1.07	52d	1	0.49mi
252 Hope Orchards Dr Lavon, TX	5.0	3.0	2957	$3,175	$1.07	48d	1	0.49mi
344 Cyprus Grove Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2353	$2,600	$1.10	42d	1	0.56mi
402 Coyote Creek Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	2114	$2,295	$1.09	1d	1	0.57mi
209 Little Bridge Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1913	$2,400	$1.25	48d	1	0.61mi
621 Cherish Day Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1413	$2,045	$1.45	12d	1	0.66mi
253 Coyote Creek Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2687	$2,600	$0.97	93d	1	0.67mi
304 Community Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2900	$2,800	$0.97	4d	1	0.67mi
179 Cyprus Grove Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1807	$2,495	$1.38	19d	1	0.73mi
219 Community Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2900	$2,900	$1.00	38d	1	0.73mi
544 Oak Creek Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,150	$1.19	42d	1	0.75mi
117 Community Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.5	2356	$2,600	$1.10	73d	1	0.84mi
566 Silver Springs Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2447	$2,850	$1.16	0d	1	0.85mi
613 Daybreak Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	1905	$2,300	$1.21	93d	1	0.87mi
358 Rockstream Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2201	$2,395	$1.09	73d	1	0.88mi
239 Tallgrass Dr Lavon, TX	5.0	3.0	2394	$3,500	$1.46	93d	1	0.89mi
269 Sunshine Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2072	$2,700	$1.30	93d	1	0.89mi
383 Silver Springs Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2466	$2,500	$1.01	93d	1	0.94mi
600 Blooming Glade Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,900	$1.35	42d	1	0.95mi
361 Silver Springs Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2466	$2,295	$0.93	93d	1	0.95mi
848 Good Cheer Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$2,095	$1.31	12d	1	0.95mi
649 Lightheart Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,200	$1.51	12d	1	0.97mi
849 Good Cheer Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,000	$1.37	3d	1	0.98mi
906 Ramble Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,675	$1.83	52d	1	0.99mi
906 Ramble Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$2,250	$1.55	7d	1	0.99mi
918 Ramble Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,900	$1.18	93d	1	1.02mi
860 Moonwake Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2011	$2,800	$1.39	93d	1	1.02mi
579 White Water Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1838	$2,000	$1.09	73d	1	1.03mi
242 Maverick Ct Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2250	$2,050	$0.91	19d	1	1.07mi
223 Rosewood Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	2139	$2,281	$1.07	21d	1	1.10mi
204 Rosewood Dr Lavon, TX	5.0	3.0	2419	$3,195	$1.32	1d	1	1.14mi
204 Rosewood Dr Lavon, TX	5.0	3.0	2419	$3,195	$1.32	0d	1	1.14mi
584 Arthur Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	2177	$2,050	$0.94	4d	1	1.32mi
415 Harding Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2850	$2,690	$0.94	16d	1	1.32mi
436 Grant Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1810	$2,099	$1.16	1d	1	1.32mi
590 Arthur Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1556	$1,850	$1.19	93d	1	1.33mi
476 Eisenhower Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,875	$1.21	70d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-07-15
   days on market $317,990 Active 292 DOM
2. 2026-07-14
   days on market $317,990 Active 291 DOM
3. 2026-07-13
   days on market $317,990 Active 290 DOM
4. 2026-07-13
   days on market $317,990 Active 289 DOM
5. 2026-07-11
   days on market $317,990 Active 288 DOM
6. 2026-07-10
   days on market $317,990 Active 287 DOM
7. 2026-07-09
   days on market $317,990 Active 286 DOM
8. 2026-07-07
   days on market $317,990 Active 284 DOM
9. 2026-07-06
   days on market $317,990 Active 283 DOM
10. 2026-07-06
    days on market $317,990 Active 282 DOM
11. 2026-07-05
    days on market $317,990 Active 281 DOM
12. 2026-07-03
    days on market $317,990 Active 280 DOM
13. 2026-07-02
    days on market $317,990 Active 279 DOM
14. 2026-07-01
    days on market $317,990 Active 278 DOM
15. 2026-06-30
    days on market $317,990 Active 277 DOM
16. 2026-06-29
    days on market $317,990 Active 276 DOM
17. 2026-06-28
    days on market $317,990 Active 275 DOM
18. 2026-06-26
    days on market $317,990 Active 273 DOM
19. 2026-06-24
    days on market $317,990 Active 271 DOM
20. 2026-06-22
    days on market $317,990 Active 269 DOM
21. 2026-06-21
    days on market $317,990 Active 268 DOM
22. 2026-06-18
    days on market $317,990 Active 265 DOM
23. 2026-06-17
    days on market $317,990 Active 264 DOM
24. 2026-06-16
    days on market $317,990 Active 263 DOM
25. 2026-06-15
    days on market $317,990 Active 262 DOM
26. 2026-06-13
    days on market $317,990 Active 260 DOM
27. 2026-06-13
    days on market $317,990 Active 259 DOM
28. 2026-06-09
    days on market $317,990 Active 256 DOM
29. 2026-06-08
    days on market $317,990 Active 255 DOM
30. 2026-06-07
    days on market $317,990 Active 254 DOM
31. 2026-06-04
    days on market $317,990 Active 251 DOM
32. 2026-06-03
    days on market $317,990 Active 250 DOM
33. 2026-06-02
    days on market $317,990 Active 249 DOM
34. 2026-06-01
    days on market $317,990 Active 248 DOM
35. 2026-05-31
    days on market $317,990 Active 247 DOM
36. 2026-01-08
    price $317,990 297-char remark

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    The Herrera is a smartly designed single-story home that blends flexibility and comfort across 2,029-2,064 square feet. With 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and plenty of open living space, this layout is perfect for growing families, remote workers, or anyone seeking the ease of main-level living.

37. 2025-10-23
    price $316,990 297-char remark

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    The Herrera is a smartly designed single-story home that blends flexibility and comfort across 2,029-2,064 square feet. With 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and plenty of open living space, this layout is perfect for growing families, remote workers, or anyone seeking the ease of main-level living.

38. 2025-09-27
    listed $315,990 Active 297-char remark

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    The Herrera is a smartly designed single-story home that blends flexibility and comfort across 2,029-2,064 square feet. With 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and plenty of open living space, this layout is perfect for growing families, remote workers, or anyone seeking the ease of main-level living.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,354
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,973
• − Property taxes: −$5,616
• − Insurance: −$1,872
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,668
• − Management: −$2,668
• − Depreciation: −$10,892
• Taxable loss: −$11,337
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,721
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,980/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This Herrera Plan home in Lavon, TX is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a well-maintained exterior, interior, and landscaping, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Both Interior cleaning — A clean interior can make the home more appealing to potential buyers or renters ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

High Community H S F TX #941/1,632 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Lavon

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #588
• US rank: #11230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 6,989
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,989
• Household income: $132,101
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own

---

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.22%
• Current HPI: 221.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $317,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $316,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-27 Listed $315,990 Zillow