4208 78th Pl NW · Lake Goodwin, WA 98271

$350,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,802 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1964 9,910 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is more than a home. It’s a place to return, reconnect, and carry forward what matters most. Set on Tulalip leased land, this thoughtfully designed home offers space to gather, to share, and to honor the connection between people, water, and sky. With nearly 1,800 square feet, the home opens through grand double doors into the vaulted living room where expansive windows frame sweeping views of Tulalip Bay, Puget Sound, Camano and Whidbey Islands, and the Olympic Mountains. Light-filled spaces flow naturally into the kitchen and family room, creating welcomes around dual fireplaces for meals, stories, and time together. The kitchen is both functional and inviting: generous counter

Key facts

• Expansive windows
• Sweeping views
• Dual fireplaces

Tags

• GRAND DOUBLE DOORS
• VAULTED LIVING ROOM
• EXPANSIVE WINDOWS
• SWEEPING VIEWS
• DUAL FIREPLACES
• GENEROUS COUNTER SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $122 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $274k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 1.9% in Lake Goodwin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#330 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Marysville School District (suburban): math 36% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #177 of 291 in WA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Quil Ceda Tulalip Elementary (503 students, 70% FRL); Totem Middle School (555 students, 71% FRL); Marysville Pilchuck High School (1,238 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 40% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 215 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,982 units permitted in Snohomish County in 2024 (1,492 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($96k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Snohomish County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $274,075 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.49%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-51,069
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-43,012
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98271

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 215
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,741 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $746/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$576
• Net cashflow: $122

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,587

Max offer price $350,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $320	-5% $221	+0% $122	+5% $23	+10% $-495
Rent	-10% $-95	-5% $13	+0% $122	+5% $230	+10% $338
Rate	-1.0pp $298	-0.5pp $211	base $122	+0.5pp $31	+1.0pp $-61

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4126 Mission Beach Rd Tulalip, WA	3.0	2.0	1315	$2,395	$1.82	22d	1	0.89mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   listed $350,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $746 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,430 · $286/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,684/yr (+$224/mo · 359.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,889
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$746
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,631
• − Management: −$2,631
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$4,657
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,118
• After-tax cash flow: $2,578/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marysville School District
• NCES district ID: 5304860
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $67,461
• Composite: 41.31/100
• National rank: #7367
• State rank: #177 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lake Goodwin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #12350

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Snohomish County · 786,756 people
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 30,838
• Household income: $95,654
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 929.0

Population outlook (Snohomish County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 899,800 people
• By 2030: 960,975 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 1,074,447 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 1,171,954 · +30.2%
• By 2075: 1,384,849 · +53.9%
• By 2100: 1,497,296 · +66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 13% Native American 7% Asian 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Snohomish

• 2024 margin: D (+19.0) · D 57.8% · R 38.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 18.9pp · 2024: 19.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.0 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+16.6 2012: D+16.2 2008: D+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -666.16%
• Current HPI: 305.285
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.30%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Listed $350,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-7.6%/yr

Latest (2014): $746 · -29.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.