1140 Southfield Dr · Caddo Mills, TX 75135

$237,990

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,892 sqft · SingleFamily · 106 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,356 sqft lot 2-car garage $126/sqft · 17% below area Est $287k · 17% under $60/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand new DR Horton home in Josephine, TX-Riverfield. Home features a two story plan with 5 bedrooms and 2.5 baths.

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $238k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-135 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (8.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.7% in Caddo Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#216 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 369 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $198,681 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.43%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $286,935
• List price: $237,990
• Delta: -17.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1137 Southfield Dr	0.02mi	5/2.5	1,892 (0%)	0mo	$237,990	$126	99
1173 Northfield Dr	0.07mi	5/2.5	1,892 (0%)	3mo	$245,990	$130	94
1133 Northfield Dr	0.12mi	5/2.5	1,892 (0%)	4mo	$244,990	$129	91
1112 Riverbrook Ln	0.38mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,875 (-1%)	3mo	$290,490	$155	72
613 Lansdowne Dr	0.40mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,875 (-1%)	2mo	$270,490	$144	71
1108 Riverbrook Ln	0.38mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,791 (-5%)	5mo	$290,490	$162	62
600 Edge Hill Ln	0.48mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,791 (-5%)	0mo	$277,990	$155	62
701 Riverbrook Ln	0.41mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,791 (-5%)	5mo	$291,260	$163	61
601 Barlow Dr	0.41mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,088 (+10%)	3mo	$294,490	$141	54
512 Barlow Dr	0.44mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,088 (+10%)	4mo	$302,205	$145	52
405 Riverbrook	0.49mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,088 (+10%)	2mo	$319,990	$153	51
609 Dunhill Rd	0.61mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,090 (+10%)	0mo	$297,990	$143	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-47,103
• Equity at exit: $35,485

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-51,826
• Equity at exit: $20,577

Cash invested: $66,637 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 21 active · 15 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.5 mo (18%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $318,990 ($160/sqft)
• Median days on market: 148 d
• This list price: 10% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -5.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75135

• Home prices YoY: -13.5%
• Active inventory: 369
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,987 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,248
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$297 /mo · $3,570/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$60
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,158

Max offer price $218,439

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $29	-5% $-53	+0% $-135	+5% $-217	+10% $-300
Rent	-10% $-292	-5% $-214	+0% $-135	+5% $-57	+10% $22
Rate	-1.0pp $-15	-0.5pp $-75	base $-135	+0.5pp $-197	+1.0pp $-260

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,498
• Closing costs: $7,140
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1153 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,925	$1.22	0d	1	0.11mi
1153 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,925	$1.22	4d	1	0.11mi
1117 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	5.0	2.5	1954	$2,095	$1.07	93d	1	0.15mi
1413 Brook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,925	$1.22	61d	1	0.18mi
1413 Brook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,925	$1.22	59d	1	0.18mi
1116 Riverbrook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1565	$1,900	$1.21	0d	1	0.35mi
1208 Riverbrook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	3.0	2088	$2,095	$1.00	93d	1	0.36mi
601 Barlow Dr Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	3.0	2090	$2,075	$0.99	93d	1	0.38mi
513 Barlow Dr Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1583	$1,950	$1.23	7d	1	0.41mi
513 Barlow Dr Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1583	$1,950	$1.23	0d	1	0.41mi
505 Lansdowne Dr Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1583	$1,795	$1.13	0d	1	0.45mi
505 Lansdowne Dr Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1583	$1,795	$1.13	1d	1	0.45mi
717 Cottonwood WAY Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2073	$2,050	$0.99	28d	1	1.34mi
717 Cottonwood WAY Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2073	$2,050	$0.99	0d	1	1.34mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	56d	1	1.35mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	3d	1	1.35mi
808 Saddle Horn Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1870	$2,199	$1.18	0d	1	1.39mi
813 Cottonwood Way Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2347	$2,100	$0.89	20d	1	1.42mi
722 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$1,950	$1.24	4d	1	1.44mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	56d	1	1.44mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,000	$1.09	17d	1	1.44mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	48d	1	1.44mi
801 Meadow Creek Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1757	$2,500	$1.42	54d	1	1.47mi
801 Meadow Creek Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1708	$2,300	$1.35	26d	1	1.47mi
904 Saddle Horn Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1870	$1,995	$1.07	7d	1	1.47mi
904 Saddle Horn Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1870	$1,995	$1.07	12d	1	1.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Treat as clear loan typeNo second mortgage indicated
• HOA & community: Mandatory association with semi-annual feeAssociation fee $360 semi-annuallyAssociation fee includes full use of facilitiesHOA managed by Neighborhood Management

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 vehiclesDrivewayAttached 2-car garage (approx. 19' wide x 20' long)
• Utilities: Municipal water (MUD)Municipal sewer (MUD)MUD service for utilities
• Home design: Single-family residenceResidential propertyTwo storiesNot attached to another property
• Construction: Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Lot under 0.5 acre (approximately 0.10 acre)Subdivision: Riverfield

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowave
• Bedrooms: Five bedrooms (primary bedroom located on 2nd level; additional bedrooms on 2nd level)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms and one half bathroom (three total bathrooms)
• Heating & cooling: Electric coolingNatural gas heating
• Interior features: Two-level layoutSeven total roomsOne living areaOne dining areaOther interior features

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $237,990 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $237,990 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $237,990 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $237,990 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $237,990 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $237,990 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $237,990 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $237,990 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $237,990 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $237,990 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $237,990 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $237,990 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $237,990 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $237,990 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $237,990 Active 85 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $237,990 Active 84 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $237,990 Active 83 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $237,990 Active 82 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $237,990 Active 81 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $237,990 Active 80 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $237,990 Active 79 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $237,990 Active 78 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $237,990 Active 77 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $237,990 Active 76 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $237,990 Active 74 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $237,990 Active 73 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $237,990 Active 72 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $237,990 Active 71 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $237,990 Active 70 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    pricedays on market $237,990 Active 69 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $247,990 Active 68 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    price $247,990 Active 67 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $244,990 Active 67 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $244,990 Active 66 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $244,990 Active 65 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $244,990 Active 64 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $244,990 Active 63 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $244,990 Active 61 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $244,990 Active 59 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $244,990 Active 58 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $244,990 Active 55 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $244,990 Active 54 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $244,990 Active 53 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $244,990 Active 52 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $244,990 Active 50 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $244,990 Active 49 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $244,990 Active 46 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $244,990 Active 45 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $244,990 Active 44 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $244,990 Active 41 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,842
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,331
• − Property taxes: −$3,570
• − Insurance: −$1,190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,907
• − Management: −$1,907
• − HOA: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$6,923
• Taxable loss: −$5,707
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,370
• After-tax cash flow: $-252/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This brand new DR Horton home in Josephine, TX is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates like painting and flooring upgrades, and smart home features can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms and kitchen — Modern flooring improves the look and feel of the home. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Leland E Edge Middle F TX #1,056/1,662 Nat'l #8,861/14,009 High Community H S F TX #941/1,632 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Caddo Mills

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #5332

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hunt · 97,090 people
• City population: 10,265
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,265
• Household income: $95,428
• Rent vs Own: 13.0% rent · 87.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Korean 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.07%
• Current HPI: 275.2189
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Treat as clear loan typeNo second mortgage indicated
• HOA & community: Mandatory association with semi-annual feeAssociation fee $360 semi-annuallyAssociation fee includes full use of facilitiesHOA managed by Neighborhood Management

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 vehiclesDrivewayAttached 2-car garage (approx. 19' wide x 20' long)
• Utilities: Municipal water (MUD)Municipal sewer (MUD)MUD service for utilities
• Home design: Single-family residenceResidential propertyTwo storiesNot attached to another property
• Construction: Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Lot under 0.5 acre (approximately 0.10 acre)Subdivision: Riverfield

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowave
• Bedrooms: Five bedrooms (primary bedroom located on 2nd level; additional bedrooms on 2nd level)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms and one half bathroom (three total bathrooms)
• Heating & cooling: Electric coolingNatural gas heating
• Interior features: Two-level layoutSeven total roomsOne living areaOne dining areaOther interior features

Price history

-1.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $244,990 NTREIS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $249,990 NTREIS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $247,990 NTREIS