BRISTOL Plan · Brookshire, TX 77423

$334,990

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,439 sqft · SingleFamily · 624 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The two-story Bristol floor plan is the answer for the home buyer looking for a spacious home to meet their needs. The primary suite is privately situated on the first floor, separate from the secondary bedrooms in the home. The 5th bedroom is also located on the first floor, offering flexibility in how to use the space - if not an additional bedroom, a home office or nursery are some ideas that come to mind! Combined formals with an island kitchen make the Bristol a modern open-concept design that is so popular with today's home buyer. And the upstairs gameroom offers a secondary entertainment space for the home.

Key facts

• Covered patio option
• Island kitchen
• Upstairs gameroom

Tags

• TWO-STORY BRISTOL FLOOR PLAN
• 5TH BEDROOM ON FIRST FLOOR
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• MODERN OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• UPSTAIRS GAMEROOM
• COVERED PATIO OPTION

🏗️ New construction. The $334,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $323,400.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $335k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $561 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $335k).
• Recommended offer: $295k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 5.9% in Brookshire — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#960 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 997 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,539/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($84k/yr) (locally 20% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 624 days — a 12% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $294,791 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 624 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.43%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $323,400
• List price: $334,990
• Delta: 3.58%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4019 Crowning Ct	0.16mi	5/3.0	2,439 (0%)	1mo	$334,900	$137	90
4018 Crowning Ct	0.19mi	5/3.0	2,439 (0%)	3mo	$349,900	$143	87
4015 Ancient Honor Dr	0.22mi	5/3.0	2,439 (0%)	6mo	$357,900	$147	83
4022 Ancient Honor Dr	0.23mi	5/3.0	2,439 (0%)	6mo	$358,900	$147	82
4023 Crowning Ct	0.17mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (-7%)	2mo	$324,900	$144	74
4022 Crowning Ct	0.19mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (-7%)	1mo	$324,900	$144	73
4006 Crowning Ct	0.20mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (-7%)	1mo	$324,900	$144	73
32855 Laureate Dr	0.22mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (-7%)	3mo	$324,900	$144	70
3930 Windy Whisper Dr	0.21mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (-7%)	4mo	$304,900	$135	70
4003 Ancient Honor Dr	0.23mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (-7%)	5mo	$329,900	$146	68
3931 Accolade Xing	0.23mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,178 (-11%)	4mo	$319,900	$147	63
5210 Wyatt James Ln	0.70mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,700 (+11%)	6mo	$350,000	$130	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-26,999
• Equity at exit: $48,220

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-17,375
• Equity at exit: $27,962

Cash invested: $90,552 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 997
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,539 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,696
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$404 /mo · $4,851/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$743
• Net cashflow: $561

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,829

Max offer price $323,400

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,850
• Closing costs: $9,702
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5222 Wyatt James Ln Brookshire, TX	4.0	2.5	2487	$3,250	$1.31	12d	1	0.72mi
33002 Franklin Brooks Dr Pattison, TX	4.0	3.5	3255	$4,385	$1.35	1d	1	0.95mi
5462 Grand View Dr Unit 1568482P Pattison, TX	5.0	3.5	2992	$3,637	$1.22	1d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $334,990 Active 624 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $334,990 Active 623 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $334,990 Active 622 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $334,990 Active 621 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $334,990 Active 619 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $334,990 Active 615 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $334,990 Active 614 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $334,990 Active 613 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $334,990 Active 610 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $334,990 Active 609 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $334,990 Active 608 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $334,990 Active 607 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $334,990 Active 606 DOM
14. 2025-06-12
    price $334,990 621-char remark

    Show marketing remark (621 chars)

    The two-story Bristol floor plan is the answer for the home buyer looking for a spacious home to meet their needs. The primary suite is privately situated on the first floor, separate from the secondary bedrooms in the home. The 5th bedroom is also located on the first floor, offering flexibility in how to use the space - if not an additional bedroom, a home office or nursery are some ideas that come to mind! Combined formals with an island kitchen make the Bristol a modern open-concept design that is so popular with today's home buyer. And the upstairs gameroom offers a secondary entertainment space for the home.

15. 2024-10-02
    listed $339,990 Active 621-char remark

    Show marketing remark (621 chars)

    The two-story Bristol floor plan is the answer for the home buyer looking for a spacious home to meet their needs. The primary suite is privately situated on the first floor, separate from the secondary bedrooms in the home. The 5th bedroom is also located on the first floor, offering flexibility in how to use the space - if not an additional bedroom, a home office or nursery are some ideas that come to mind! Combined formals with an island kitchen make the Bristol a modern open-concept design that is so popular with today's home buyer. And the upstairs gameroom offers a secondary entertainment space for the home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,468
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,115
• − Property taxes: −$4,851
• − Insurance: −$1,617
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,397
• − Management: −$3,397
• − Depreciation: −$9,408
• Taxable income: $1,682
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$404
• After-tax cash flow: $6,327/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

The Bristol floor plan is a well-maintained, move-in-ready home with good curb appeal and interior condition. Minor updates to the exterior and interior can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Resale Bathroom updates — Upgraded bathrooms can significantly increase the home's value for resale.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom updates — Upgraded bathrooms can significantly increase the home's value for resale. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brookshire

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #960
• US rank: #17059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 18,767 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-12 Price Changed $334,990 Zillow
• 2024-10-02 Listed $339,990 Zillow