8628 Firwood Dr · Estero, FL 33928

$79,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 438 sqft · Manufactured public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1979 2,090 sqft lot $144/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 8628 Firwood Dr, a property that offers endless potential for your next chapter. This well-maintained home is perfect for those looking for comfort and convenience. Nestled in a great neighborhood, you'll enjoy easy access to local amenities, shopping, and dining. Whether you're searching for a family home or an investment property, this is an opportunity you don't want to miss. Schedule your private showing today! 55+ community.

Key facts

• 2,090 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Built 1979

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: RV
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee of $431; HOA covers road maintenance and sewer; Community amenities include clubhouse, barbecue, picnic area, park, pool, spa/hot tub, sidewalks, and management; Senior community

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story; Northwest facing; Resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Community pool; No notable exterior features listed; Southeast exposure; Rectangular lot; dimensions 35 x 69 x 35 x 69

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Furnished; Separate/formal dining room; Shower only (separate shower); Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $657 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Cap rate 16.2% vs local median 3.4% in Estero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 668 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 11 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $56k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.21%
• DSCR: 2.57
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $24,025
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.51×
• Total profit: $56,069
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33928

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 668
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,687 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $959/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$144
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $657

Break-even live

Break-even rent $856

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $144 · $1,728/yr

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-05-14
   historical $900
2. 2026-05-13
   status Pending
3. 2026-05-03
   listed $79,900 Active
4. 2026-04-30
   historical
5. 2026-01-27
   listed $900
6. 2026-01-01
   historical $1,150
7. 2025-12-18
   listed $1,150
8. 2025-11-25
   historical $1,150
9. 2025-10-16
   listed $99,000 Active
10. 2025-08-22
    price $1,150
11. 2025-07-16
    listed $1,250
12. 2025-07-16
    historical $1,250
13. 2025-05-05
    listed $1,250
14. 2025-02-11
    historical $1,150
15. 2025-01-29
    price $1,150
16. 2024-11-30
    historical
17. 2024-11-21
    listed $99,999 Active
18. 2024-11-12
    listed $1,667
19. 2024-10-16
    soldstatus $56,500
20. 2024-10-04
    soldstatus $56,500 Closed
21. 2024-09-03
    status Pending
22. 2024-07-17
    price $80,000
23. 2024-03-25
    price $89,900
24. 2023-10-31
    price $95,000
25. 2023-07-24
    price $100,000
26. 2023-05-31
    listed $105,000 Active
27. 2021-04-23
    soldstatus $59,900
28. 2021-04-22
    soldstatus $59,900 Closed
29. 2021-03-25
    status Pending
30. 2021-03-25
    status Active
31. 2021-03-20
    historical
32. 2020-09-20
    listed $66,900 Active
33. 2010-03-16
    soldstatus $50,000
34. 1983-03-01
    soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $959 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $959 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 50% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,245
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$959
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,620
• − Management: −$1,620
• − HOA: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $7,119
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,708
• After-tax cash flow: $6,170/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Estero

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #2242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Estero, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 31,926
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,926
• Household income: $102,624
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 606.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 197.5913
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+565.8% since first listed

34 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Rental Removed $900 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-05-13 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2026-05-03 Listed $79,900 FORTMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed for Rent $900 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-01-01 Rental Removed $1,150 FORTMLS
• 2025-12-18 Listed for Rent $1,150 FORTMLS
• 2025-11-25 Rental Removed $1,150 FORTMLS
• 2025-10-16 Listed $99,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $1,150 FORTMLS
• 2025-07-16 Listed for Rent $1,250 FORTMLS
• 2025-07-16 Rental Removed $1,250 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-05-05 Listed for Rent $1,250 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-02-11 Rental Removed $1,150 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-01-29 Price Changed $1,150 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-11-30 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2024-11-21 Listed $99,999 FORTMLS
• 2024-11-12 Listed for Rent $1,667 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $56,500 Public Records
• 2024-10-04 Sold (MLS) $56,500 FORTMLS
• 2024-09-03 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2024-07-17 Price Changed $80,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-03-25 Price Changed $89,900 FORTMLS
• 2023-10-31 Price Changed $95,000 FORTMLS
• 2023-07-24 Price Changed $100,000 FORTMLS
• 2023-05-31 Listed $105,000 FORTMLS
• 2021-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $59,900 Public Records
• 2021-04-22 Sold (MLS) $59,900 FORTMLS
• 2021-03-25 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2021-03-25 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2021-03-20 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2020-09-20 Listed $66,900 FORTMLS
• 2010-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1983-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $959 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.