639 S 28th St · Buena Vista, MI 48601

$55,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1935 7,841 sqft lot Est $81k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this charming 3 bedroom, 1 bath home. Would be perfect for first time buyers or a smart investment opportunity. Featuring a large fenced yard, there’s plenty of space for outdoor living, pets, or entertaining. Relax and unwind on the inviting porch, adding to the home’s welcoming appeal. Whether you're looking to settle in or expand your portfolio, this property offers great potential.

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Outdoor living
• Inviting porch

Tags

• FENCED YARD
• OUTDOOR LIVING
• INVITING PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Aluminum and vinyl siding; 860 square feet above grade
• Exterior features: Front porch; Lot approximately 120 x 66

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No central cooling
• Interior features: 5 total rooms; Basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $752 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.7% vs local median 11.7% in Buena Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#615 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Saginaw School District (urban): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #444 of 540 in MI (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 199 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $4k; list at $55k implies a 1471% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $53,350 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.61%
• DSCR: 3.61
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $80,840
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
436 S 27th St	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,572 (-9%)	6mo	$66,000	$42	69
637 S 26th St	0.12mi	3/1.5	1,520 (-12%)	11mo	$129,900	$85	64
352 S 29th St	0.35mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,815 (+6%)	9mo	$75,000	$41	60
440 S 28th St	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,477 (-14%)	8mo	$124,900	$85	58
510 S 21st St	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,889 (+10%)	16mo	$88,500	$47	50
2317 Hosmer St	0.65mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,500 (-13%)	22mo	$61,500	$41	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.53×
• Total profit: $39,004
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.21×
• Total profit: $95,690
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48601

• Home prices YoY: -32.1%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,409 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $594/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $752

Break-even live

Break-even rent $457

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $55,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $55,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $55,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $55,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,000 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $55,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $55,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 36 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $55,000 Active 35 DOM
17. 2026-04-26
    listed $55,000 Active
18. 2026-04-25
    listed $55,000 Active 410-char remark

    Show marketing remark (410 chars)

    Check out this charming 3 bedroom, 1 bath home. Would be perfect for first time buyers or a smart investment opportunity. Featuring a large fenced yard, there’s plenty of space for outdoor living, pets, or entertaining. Relax and unwind on the inviting porch, adding to the home’s welcoming appeal. Whether you're looking to settle in or expand your portfolio, this property offers great potential.

19. 2009-02-04
    soldstatus $3,500 98-char remark

    Show marketing remark (98 chars)

    Nice starter home or investment opportunity. 3 bedrooms, fenced lot. All data and meas are approx.

20. 2008-09-12
    listed $7,900 98-char remark

    Show marketing remark (98 chars)

    Nice starter home or investment opportunity. 3 bedrooms, fenced lot. All data and meas are approx.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $594 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $721 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: +$126/yr (+$11/mo · 21.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 47% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,907
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$594
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,353
• − Management: −$1,353
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $8,652
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,076
• After-tax cash flow: $6,950/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saginaw School District
• NCES district ID: 2630390
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $28,940
• Composite: 19.6/100
• National rank: #8755
• State rank: #444 of 540 in MI

Livability — Buena Vista

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #615
• US rank: #20603

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buena Vista, MI
• City population: 54,884
• Population (ZIP): 32,069

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.46%
• Current HPI: 197.3359
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+596.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Listed $55,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-25 Listed $55,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-02-04 Sold (MLS) $3,500 REALCOMP
• 2008-09-12 Listed $7,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $594 · -50.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.