16 Melwood Dr · Belleville, IL 62223

$200,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,584 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1964 0.38 ac lot Est $174k · 15% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• ARV discount +0.8/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come in and take a look at this attractive, well cared for, brick, ranch home. A large living/dining room combo with see thru gas fireplace welcomes you. It has lovely wood floors that extend into the three bedrooms. The family room shares the fireplace and looks out over a backyard with mature trees that create a sense of privacy. The galley kitchen is well equipped and has a dining area where you can take the time to enjoy a morning cup of coffee or a snack. The master bedroom has a ¾ bath with a shower and generous closet space. The lower level of this home is large and open and has a woodburning fireplace to take off winter chill. There is a half bath and space that could become a pool room, and another for a game room or craft room. There is a separate room with a workbench and room for storage. A sliding door leads out to the patio so you can take advantage of the nice weather and enjoy maybe a BBQ or other activity with family and/or friends.

Key facts

• 0.38 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1964

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Two-car garage (approx. 21 x 19)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Electricity, natural gas, sewer and water are connected
• Home design: Single family residence; House with one level
• Construction: Brick construction; Finished basement (full, partially finished) with egress window, exterior and interior entry, and bathroom
• Exterior features: Patio; Back yard; Front yard; Adjoins wooded area; Few trees; Gentle sloping lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Built-in electric oven; Microwave; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Combination of flooring types; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Main-level full bathrooms; Lower-level half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Crown molding; Kitchen/dining room combo; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-196 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (17.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (24.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#142 in IL, #2,604 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities D-.
• Belleville Twp Hsd 201 (suburban): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #308 of 620 in IL (top 50%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Belleville High School-West (math 19% / reading 26%, grade F, #317 of 693 statewide, top 46%, 2,234 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (9.5% local appreciation)).
• St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $200k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,616 (24.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.19%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $174,240
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
125 Barrington Dr	0.20mi	3/1.5	1,526 (-4%)	4mo	$165,000	$108	76
6920 W A St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,752 (+11%)	2mo	$150,000	$86	67
7000 Gary Dr	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,496 (-6%)	1mo	$165,000	$110	66
317 Southgate Dr	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,680 (+6%)	5mo	$182,500	$109	58
125 Chevy Chase Dr	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,613 (+2%)	2mo	$150,000	$93	58
37 Dorchester Dr	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,566 (-1%)	4mo	$185,000	$118	54
7117 Gary Dr	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,424 (-10%)	2mo	$185,000	$130	54
7620 W Main St	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,672 (+6%)	4mo	$240,000	$144	53
23 N 78th St	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (+6%)	1mo	$182,000	$108	50
2241 W Frank Scott Parkway Pkwy W	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,700 (+7%)	1mo	$125,000	$74	40
213 Springdale Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,383 (-13%)	2mo	$215,000	$155	39
505 Longview Dr	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,372 (-13%)	4mo	$180,000	$131	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.5% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $89,668
• Equity at exit: $172,922

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.86×
• Total profit: $272,272
• Equity at exit: $365,453

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62223

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,506 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$253 /mo · $3,041/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $-196

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,754

Max offer price $165,432

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6105 W Washington St Belleville, IL	3.0	1.5	1120	$1,575	$1.41	24d	1	0.47mi
920 S 74th St Belleville, IL	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	12d	1	0.57mi
18 Dorchester Dr Belleville, IL	3.0	3.0	2112	$1,650	$0.78	2d	1	0.60mi
4824 Bier St Belleville, IL	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,350	$1.12	3d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $200,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active Under Contract 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active Under Contract 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active Under Contract 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $200,000 Active Under Contract 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active Under Contract 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active Under Contract 53 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active Under Contract 52 DOM
13. 2026-05-06
    historical Active Under Contract
14. 2026-04-30
    status Active
15. 2026-04-14
    historical Active Under Contract
16. 2026-04-09
    listed $200,000 Active
17. 2026-04-08
    historical $200,000
18. 2017-03-21
    soldstatus $125,000
19. 2017-03-17
    soldstatus Closed 970-char remark

    Show marketing remark (970 chars)

    Come in and take a look at this attractive, well cared for, brick, ranch home. A large living/dining room combo with see thru gas fireplace welcomes you. It has lovely wood floors that extend into the three bedrooms. The family room shares the fireplace and looks out over a backyard with mature trees that create a sense of privacy. The galley kitchen is well equipped and has a dining area where you can take the time to enjoy a morning cup of coffee or a snack. The master bedroom has a ¾ bath with a shower and generous closet space. The lower level of this home is large and open and has a woodburning fireplace to take off winter chill. There is a half bath and space that could become a pool room, and another for a game room or craft room. There is a separate room with a workbench and room for storage. A sliding door leads out to the patio so you can take advantage of the nice weather and enjoy maybe a BBQ or other activity with family and/or friends.

20. 2017-02-06
    status Pending 970-char remark

    Show marketing remark (970 chars)

    Come in and take a look at this attractive, well cared for, brick, ranch home. A large living/dining room combo with see thru gas fireplace welcomes you. It has lovely wood floors that extend into the three bedrooms. The family room shares the fireplace and looks out over a backyard with mature trees that create a sense of privacy. The galley kitchen is well equipped and has a dining area where you can take the time to enjoy a morning cup of coffee or a snack. The master bedroom has a ¾ bath with a shower and generous closet space. The lower level of this home is large and open and has a woodburning fireplace to take off winter chill. There is a half bath and space that could become a pool room, and another for a game room or craft room. There is a separate room with a workbench and room for storage. A sliding door leads out to the patio so you can take advantage of the nice weather and enjoy maybe a BBQ or other activity with family and/or friends.

21. 2017-01-25
    listed $129,000 Active 970-char remark

    Show marketing remark (970 chars)

    Come in and take a look at this attractive, well cared for, brick, ranch home. A large living/dining room combo with see thru gas fireplace welcomes you. It has lovely wood floors that extend into the three bedrooms. The family room shares the fireplace and looks out over a backyard with mature trees that create a sense of privacy. The galley kitchen is well equipped and has a dining area where you can take the time to enjoy a morning cup of coffee or a snack. The master bedroom has a ¾ bath with a shower and generous closet space. The lower level of this home is large and open and has a woodburning fireplace to take off winter chill. There is a half bath and space that could become a pool room, and another for a game room or craft room. There is a separate room with a workbench and room for storage. A sliding door leads out to the patio so you can take advantage of the nice weather and enjoy maybe a BBQ or other activity with family and/or friends.

22. 2016-11-23
    historical
23. 2016-10-12
    price $125,000
24. 2016-08-24
    status Active
25. 2016-08-23
    historical
26. 2016-07-28
    status Active
27. 2016-07-23
    historical
28. 2016-07-07
    price $130,000
29. 2016-05-04
    listed $135,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,041 · $253/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,790 · $316/mo
• Expected delta: +$750/yr (+$62/mo · 24.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,074
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,041
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,446
• − Management: −$1,446
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$5,880
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,411
• After-tax cash flow: $-937/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belleville Twp Hsd 201
• NCES district ID: 1705640
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,064
• Composite: 22.39/100
• National rank: #8115
• State rank: #308 of 620 in IL

Livability — Belleville

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #2604

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Belleville, IL
• County: Saint Clair County · 169,691 people
• City population: 47,407
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 16,269
• Household income: $73,700
• Rent vs Own: 23.6% rent · 76.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 656.0

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 250,366 people
• By 2030: 240,511 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 217,391 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 192,699 · -23.0%
• By 2075: 140,637 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 100,499 · -59.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 27% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+7.9) · D 53.0% · R 45.1% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: 7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+7.9 2020: D+8.7 2016: D+5.6 2012: D+14.5 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.50%
• Current HPI: 259.15
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+47.2% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Listed $200,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Coming Soon $200,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2017-03-17 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-06 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-25 Listed $129,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-23 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-12 Price Changed $125,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-24 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-23 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-28 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-23 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-07 Price Changed $130,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-04 Listed $135,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,041 · -4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.