1509 Mizzenmast Way · Jupiter, FL 33477

$725,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,263 sqft · Condo public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1989 $1075/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BEAUTIFUL AVIGNON UNIT. LOCATED IN GATED OCEANFRONT COMM, W/POOL, TENNIS & EXER. RM. UNIT FEATURES VAULTED CATH. CEILINGS, TILE, BERBER CARPET,FIRE- PLACE,GARAGE. NEW WASHER/DRYER.

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Community pool
• 2024 roof

Tags

• IMPACT WINDOWS
• 2024 ROOF
• COMMUNITY POOL
• FITNESS CENTER
• TENNIS COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Take US1 to Sea Colony, go through gate, then turn right onto Mizzenmast
• Financial info: Pets allowed (possible restrictions and limits); Community contains 171 units
• HOA & community: Part of Sea Colony association; Monthly HOA fee; Association amenities: beach access, fitness center, pool, tennis courts, management, on-site manager; HOA covers cable TV, insurance, security, sewer, trash, water, and common areas

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 space); Driveway; Covered parking (1 space); Total parking for 2 vehicles
• Security: Gated community with guard
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Condominium; Resale unit; Two-story building; Faces west
• Construction: Built with stucco and CBS; Concrete and tile roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Private road frontage; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High ceilings; Walk-in closets; Split bedroom layout; Upstairs living area; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $725k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $538k (25.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $602k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $538k (25.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.6% in Jupiter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#415 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Beacon Cove Intermediate School (math 84% / reading 86%, grade A+, #35 of 2,144 statewide, top 2%, 641 students, 19% FRL); William T. Dwyer High School (math 36% / reading 58%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,206 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 28% FRL vs 52% district-wide (24 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 66% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Palm Beach average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.3%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($703k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $295k; list at $725k implies a 146% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $538,200 (25.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.25%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.93% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $49,663
• Equity at exit: $323,070

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $334,805
• Equity at exit: $495,630

Cash invested: $203,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33477

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Rents YoY: 10.3%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,024 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,802
• Tax from tax record: −$637 /mo · $7,646/yr
• Insurance: −$302
• HOA: −$1,075
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,265
• Net cashflow: $-1,057

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,362

Max offer price $538,200

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $181,250
• Closing costs: $21,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1506 Mizzenmast Way Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1624	$15,000	$9.24	20d	1	0.03mi
1609 Mizzenmast Way #1609 Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1263	$8,500	$6.73	24d	1	0.03mi
1206 Mainsail Cir Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1624	$8,500	$5.23	24d	1	0.03mi
606 Mainsail Cir Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1624	$8,500	$5.23	17d	1	0.03mi
207 Mainsail Cir Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1620	$9,500	$5.86	24d	1	0.03mi
205 Mainsail Cir Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1624	$7,000	$4.31	24d	1	0.03mi
406 Mainsail Cir Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1624	$8,500	$5.23	24d	1	0.03mi
602 Mainsail Cir Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1620	$7,500	$4.63	22d	1	0.08mi
905 Mainsail Cir #905 Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1624	$5,000	$3.08	4d	1	0.08mi
905 Mainsail Cir #905 Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1624	$5,000	$3.08	12d	1	0.08mi
2056 Windward Way Jupiter, FL	3.0	3.0	1786	$20,000	$11.20	24d	1	0.11mi
2074 Mainsail Cir Jupiter, FL	3.0	3.0	1786	$4,500	$2.52	24d	1	0.14mi
401 Ocean Bluffs Blvd Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1385	$5,300	$3.83	24d	3	0.17mi
1701 Mizzenmast Way Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1263	$8,500	$6.73	24d	1	0.20mi
101 S Seas Dr Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1332	$6,300	$4.73	24d	3	0.27mi
301 S Seas Dr Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1332	$6,350	$4.77	7d	1	0.27mi
501 S Seas Dr #202 Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1385	$8,500	$6.14	24d	1	0.27mi
201 S Seas Dr #404 Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1385	$6,000	$4.33	24d	1	0.29mi
201 S Seas Dr Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1385	$4,750	$3.43	20d	2	0.30mi
401 S Seas Dr #203 Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1332	$6,400	$4.80	24d	1	0.36mi
108 Ocean Dunes Cir #108 Jupiter, FL	3.0	2.0	1593	$3,000	$1.88	24d	1	0.48mi
4161 Ocean City Park Unit K1 Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1700	$5,800	$3.41	2d	1	0.59mi
1209 12th Ct Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.5	1188	$7,000	$5.89	24d	1	0.60mi
1007 10th Ct Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.5	1188	$2,800	$2.36	18d	1	0.60mi
1221 Ocean Dunes Cir Jupiter, FL	3.0	2.5	1431	$4,000	$2.80	22d	1	0.60mi
3052 30th Ct Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.5	1236	$6,000	$4.85	12d	1	0.63mi
621 Ocean Dunes Cir Jupiter, FL	3.0	2.0	1254	$7,500	$5.98	19d	1	0.64mi
1138 11th Ct Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.5	1188	$3,500	$2.95	24d	1	0.66mi
1231 12th Ct Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.5	1188	$2,700	$2.27	5d	1	0.67mi
1121 Ocean Dunes Cir Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.5	1431	$8,000	$5.59	24d	1	0.67mi
1120 Ocean Dunes Cir Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.5	1431	$5,500	$3.84	18d	1	0.67mi
1120 Ocean Dunes Cir Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.5	1431	$5,500	$3.84	7d	1	0.67mi
809 Ocean Dunes Cir Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.5	1431	$3,300	$2.31	24d	1	0.67mi
716 Ocean Dunes Cir Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1279	$3,350	$2.62	24d	1	0.68mi
2431 24th Ct Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.5	1236	$3,000	$2.43	24d	1	0.68mi
3026 30th Ct Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.5	1236	$2,800	$2.27	24d	1	0.68mi
3017 30th Ct Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.5	1236	$5,000	$4.05	24d	1	0.70mi
1424 14th Ct Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.5	1188	$2,500	$2.10	24d	1	0.71mi
3016 30th Ct Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.5	1236	$6,000	$4.85	24d	1	0.71mi
1106 Ocean Dunes Cir Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.5	1431	$3,900	$2.73	24d	1	0.71mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,075 · $12,900/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $725,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $725,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $725,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $725,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $725,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $725,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $725,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $725,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $725,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $725,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $725,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $725,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $725,000 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-05-07
    listed $725,000 Active
15. 2025-05-01
    historical $3,500
16. 2025-03-19
    price $3,500
17. 2024-12-04
    price $6,000
18. 2024-10-25
    listed $6,500
19. 2024-10-23
    historical $6,500
20. 2024-09-04
    listed $6,500
21. 2024-08-30
    historical $6,500
22. 2024-04-28
    listed $6,500
23. 2024-04-28
    historical $6,500
24. 2024-04-27
    listed $6,500
25. 2023-12-13
    historical $6,500
26. 2023-11-18
    listed $6,500
27. 2014-11-26
    soldstatus $295,000
28. 2014-10-23
    historical
29. 2014-08-06
    price $319,000
30. 2014-04-22
    listed $329,000 Active
31. 2001-06-19
    soldstatus $165,000
32. 2001-06-19
    soldstatus $165,000
33. 2001-05-25
    soldstatus $165,000 184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL AVIGNON UNIT. LOCATED IN GATED OCEANFRONT COMM, W/POOL, TENNIS & EXER. RM. UNIT FEATURES VAULTED CATH. CEILINGS, TILE, BERBER CARPET,FIRE- PLACE,GARAGE. NEW WASHER/DRYER.

34. 2001-04-11
    historical 184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL AVIGNON UNIT. LOCATED IN GATED OCEANFRONT COMM, W/POOL, TENNIS & EXER. RM. UNIT FEATURES VAULTED CATH. CEILINGS, TILE, BERBER CARPET,FIRE- PLACE,GARAGE. NEW WASHER/DRYER.

35. 2000-09-08
    listed $169,900 184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL AVIGNON UNIT. LOCATED IN GATED OCEANFRONT COMM, W/POOL, TENNIS & EXER. RM. UNIT FEATURES VAULTED CATH. CEILINGS, TILE, BERBER CARPET,FIRE- PLACE,GARAGE. NEW WASHER/DRYER.

36. 1997-07-25
    soldstatus $106,500
37. 1993-09-27
    soldstatus $124,000
38. 1989-06-23
    soldstatus $149,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,646 · $637/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,646 · $637/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $72,286
• − Mortgage interest: −$40,611
• − Property taxes: −$7,646
• − Insurance: −$3,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,783
• − Management: −$5,783
• − HOA: −$12,900
• − Depreciation: −$21,091
• Taxable loss: −$25,153
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,037
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,652/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jupiter

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #415
• US rank: #7386

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jupiter, FL
• County: Palm Beach County · 1,438,312 people
• City population: 68,420
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,908
• Household income: $104,992
• Rent vs Own: 13.7% rent · 86.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 445.0

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.93%
• Current HPI: 356.212
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.27%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+383.7% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $725,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-05-01 Rental Removed $3,500 RMLSFL
• 2025-03-19 Price Changed $3,500 RMLSFL
• 2024-12-04 Price Changed $6,000 RMLSFL
• 2024-10-25 Listed for Rent $6,500 RMLSFL
• 2024-10-23 Rental Removed $6,500 RMLSFL
• 2024-09-04 Listed for Rent $6,500 RMLSFL
• 2024-08-30 Rental Removed $6,500 RMLSFL
• 2024-04-28 Listed for Rent $6,500 RMLSFL
• 2024-04-28 Rental Removed $6,500 GFLMLS
• 2024-04-27 Listed for Rent $6,500 GFLMLS
• 2023-12-13 Rental Removed $6,500 GFLMLS
• 2023-11-18 Listed for Rent $6,500 GFLMLS
• 2014-11-26 Sold (Public Records) $295,000 Public Records
• 2014-10-23 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2014-08-06 Price Changed $319,000 Beaches MLS
• 2014-04-22 Listed $329,000 Beaches MLS
• 2001-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2001-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2001-05-25 Sold (MLS) $165,000 Beaches MLS
• 2001-04-11 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2000-09-08 Listed $169,900 Beaches MLS
• 1997-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $106,500 Public Records
• 1993-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $124,000 Public Records
• 1989-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $149,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,646 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.