1811 Blair Loop Rd · Danville, VA 24541

$149,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,128 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1930 0.73 ac lot Est $156k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very attractive classic home, well taken care of on HUGE yard! Comfortable and calming wraparound front porch, sitting room, hardwood floors, LARGE master bedroom, larger kitchen, bonus room upstairs as 3rd bedroom or could be office or storage. Quiet and convenient location, would make a GREAT starter home, small family, retired persons, etc. Great country setting, desirable Westover area!

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Tiled bathroom
• Granite counters

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• SUBWAY TILE BACKSPLASH
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• TILED BATHROOM
• WOODBURNING FIREPLACES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Composition roof; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Porch; Outbuilding; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: Insulated windows; Two fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $163 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (11.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $133k (11.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 5.3% in Danville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#91 in VA, #2,952 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, crime D-, commute F.
• Danville City Public School District (town): math 30% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #128 of 131 in VA (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Park Avenue Elementary (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,069 of 1,108 statewide, top 97%, 366 students, 98% FRL); Westwood Middle (math 22% / reading 40%, grade F, #333 of 342 statewide, top 97%, 609 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 71% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 245 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 54 units permitted in Danville city in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Danville County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $150k implies a 138% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,133 (11.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.67%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $155,664
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
145 Shady Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,114 (-1%)	0mo	$133,000	$119	76
1952 Blair Loop Rd	0.28mi	2/1.0	1,156 (+2%)	11mo	$160,000	$138	73
1646 Blair Loop Rd	0.38mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,265 (+12%)	10mo	$125,000	$99	47
1994 Blair Loop Rd	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,293 (+15%)	24mo	$260,000	$201	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-13,965
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $939
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24541

• Home prices YoY: -17.1%
• Active inventory: 245
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,331 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $480/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,125

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
119 Martin Ave Danville, VA	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,700	$1.55	43d	1	1.21mi
671 Park Ave Danville, VA	2.0	1.0	942	$1,100	$1.17	43d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,900 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $149,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   remarks 683-char remark
4. 2026-06-03
   listed $149,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $480 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,229 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$749/yr (+$62/mo · 156.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,976
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$480
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,278
• − Management: −$1,278
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$567
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$136
• After-tax cash flow: $2,095/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Danville City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101110
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $31,952
• Composite: 30.23/100
• National rank: #6298
• State rank: #128 of 131 in VA

Livability — Danville

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #91
• US rank: #2952

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Danville, VA
• County: Danville City · 59,055 people
• City population: 59,055
• Metro: Danville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 28,042
• Household income: $51,427
• Rent vs Own: 46.3% rent · 53.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1399.0

Population outlook (Danville County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 40,989 people
• By 2030: 40,432 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 39,255 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 38,035 · -7.2%
• By 2075: 35,612 · -13.1%
• By 2100: 30,365 · -25.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 39% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Danville

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.1) · D 60.1% · R 39.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: 19.1pp · 2024: 21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.1 2020: D+22.1 2016: D+19.9 2012: D+22.1 2008: D+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.28%
• Current HPI: 238.5992
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Danville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+154.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $149,900 DRRAR
• 2019-06-24 Sold (MLS) $63,000 DRRAR
• 2019-05-24 Listed $59,000 DRRAR

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $480 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.