5401 Ocotillo Ave · Roswell, NM 88201

$184,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,485 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1986 0.65 ac lot ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Country living just minutes from town! Situated on . 63 acre, this property offers space to spread out both inside and out. Enter through the fully fenced and gated yard into an open living and dining area that flows into a large U-shaped kitchen featuring abundant cabinetry, all major appliances, and washer/dryer hookups. Down the hall are three well-sized bedrooms, including a primary with its own private ½ bath, while the ¾ hall bath serves the rest of the home. Step outside to a covered patio perfect for enjoying the New Mexico skies. The property also features a 960± sq ft workshop ideal for hobbies, projects, or storage, an additional storage shed, and plenty of r

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Abundant cabinetry
• Gated yard

Tags

• FULLY FENCED YARD
• GATED YARD
• LARGE U-SHAPED KITCHEN
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• COVERED PATIO
• 960 SQ FT WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $223 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (9.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#8 in NM, #4,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Roswell Independent Schools (town): math 11% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #16 of 29 in NM (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 88 units permitted in Chaves County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,908 (9.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.16%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-13,621
• Equity at exit: $27,569

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $15,515
• Equity at exit: $15,987

Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88201

• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,669 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $591/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $223

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,387

Max offer price $184,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $327	-5% $275	+0% $223	+5% $170	+10% $118
Rent	-10% $91	-5% $157	+0% $223	+5% $289	+10% $355
Rate	-1.0pp $316	-0.5pp $270	base $223	+0.5pp $175	+1.0pp $126

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,225
• Closing costs: $5,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
703 Broken Arrow Rd Unit 743 Roswell, NM	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,850	$1.32	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-11
   listed $184,900 Active
3. 2025-10-01
   price $200,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $591 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,479 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$888/yr (+$74/mo · 150.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,029
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,357
• − Property taxes: −$591
• − Insurance: −$924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,602
• − Management: −$1,602
• − Depreciation: −$5,379
• Taxable loss: −$427
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$103
• After-tax cash flow: $2,774/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roswell Independent Schools
• NCES district ID: 3502250
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 23.00%
• Median HH income: $38,848
• Composite: 26.21/100
• National rank: #7262
• State rank: #16 of 29 in NM

Livability — Roswell

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #4339

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chaves County · 56,277 people
• City population: 56,277
• Metro: Roswell, NM
• Population (ZIP): 27,524
• Household income: $61,780
• Rent vs Own: 24.5% rent · 75.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 603.0

Population outlook (Chaves County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,122 people
• By 2030: 66,351 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 66,818 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 66,928 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 65,474 · -1.0%
• By 2100: 58,943 · -10.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 44% Two or more races 16% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 23% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chaves

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.8) · D 26.8% · R 71.6% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.2pp toward R · 2008: -24.7pp · 2024: -44.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.8 2020: R+41.3 2016: R+36.4 2012: R+32.4 2008: R+24.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.52%
• Current HPI: 149.3526
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.32%
• Metro: Roswell, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-7.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — NMMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $184,900 NMMLS
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $200,000 NMMLS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $591 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.