7831 Bridle Path Row · Bayonet Point, FL 34667

$210,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,732 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1973 3,000 sqft lot Est $288k · 27% under $30/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Spacious 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath, 2-car garage home located in the desirable Beacon Woods Village community, offering great curb appeal and endless potential. This home features a functional and inviting layout with generous living spaces, including a formal living room and formal dining area that can easily be used as a home office, den, or flex space to suit your needs. The kitchen opens to a dinette area and a large main living space, creating a great flow for everyday living and entertaining. With solid bones and a well-designed floor plan, this home presents a fantastic opportunity for a buyer to update and personalize to their own style. The split-b

Key facts

• Split-bedroom layout
• Dinette area
• Formal dining area

Tags

• FORMAL LIVING ROOM
• FORMAL DINING AREA
• HOME OFFICE
• DINETTE AREA
• LARGE MAIN LIVING SPACE
• SPLIT-BEDROOM LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $247 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (8.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 5.3% in Bayonet Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#485 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D+, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gulf Highlands Elementary School (math 29% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 714 students, 89% FRL); Fivay High School (math 20% / reading 28%, grade F, #529 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,610 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 48% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 799 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,198 (8.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.03%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $287,512
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12808 Pinebrook Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,771 (+2%)	3mo	$275,000	$155	67
12303 Fieldstone Ln	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,783 (+3%)	3mo	$225,000	$126	64
8204 Heartwood Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,519 (-12%)	1mo	$270,000	$178	63
8200 Mill Creek Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,519 (-12%)	2mo	$242,500	$160	63
12600 Castleberry Ct	0.29mi	3/3.0	1,914 (+10%)	3mo	$255,000	$133	63
11703 Oceanside Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,655 (-4%)	1mo	$330,000	$199	61
12406 Parchment Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,675 (-3%)	1mo	$367,000	$219	60
8501 Mill Creek Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,615 (-7%)	0mo	$260,000	$161	59
12302 Quail Run Row	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,517 (-12%)	0mo	$160,000	$105	59
11647 Zimmerman Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,808 (+4%)	1mo	$300,000	$166	57
8301 Valley Stream Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,873 (+8%)	2mo	$350,000	$187	55
12200 Silk Oak Ln	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,959 (+13%)	3mo	$335,000	$171	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-24,034
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-22,799
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34667

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 799
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,922 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $636/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $247

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,610

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $366	-5% $306	+0% $247	+5% $187	+10% $128
Rent	-10% $95	-5% $171	+0% $247	+5% $323	+10% $398
Rate	-1.0pp $352	-0.5pp $300	base $247	+0.5pp $192	+1.0pp $137

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12213 Saddle Strap Row Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1684	$1,990	$1.18	19d	1	0.10mi
7602 Danube Dr Unit 7602 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,600	$1.42	25d	1	0.23mi
7616 Danube Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,350	$1.20	25d	1	0.26mi
12041 Hoosier Ct #204 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,495	$1.36	19d	1	0.29mi
12041 Hoosier Ct #204 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,495	$1.36	25d	1	0.29mi
12027 Hoosier Ct #203 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,550	$1.41	25d	1	0.33mi
12215 Meadowbrook Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1519	$1,850	$1.22	25d	1	0.38mi
11902 Oceanside Dr Port Richey, FL	4.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	4d	1	0.42mi
12200 Hudson Ridge Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1107	$1,704	$1.54	4d	10	0.44mi
8312 Mill Creek Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,600	$1.39	25d	1	0.48mi
8312 Mill Creek Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,600	$1.39	0d	1	0.48mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	23d	1	0.53mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	6d	1	0.53mi
11630 Paige Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,680	$1.46	13d	1	0.65mi
11610 Meadow Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1128	$1,570	$1.39	13d	1	0.69mi
12809 College Hill Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,780	$1.60	6d	1	0.70mi
7715 Sue Ellen Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,495	$1.38	4d	1	0.77mi
8305 Sandwedge Cir Unit A Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,450	$1.27	23d	1	0.79mi
7804 Topay Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,795	$1.60	0d	1	0.82mi
7608 Sue Ellen Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$2,400	$1.83	25d	1	0.83mi
7530 Judith Cres Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$2,200	$1.52	25d	1	0.93mi
7530 Judith Cres Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$1,695	$1.17	21d	1	0.93mi
7730 Greybirch Ter Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.5	1773	$1,850	$1.04	25d	1	0.99mi
7520 Hawthorn Dr Unit NA Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1303	$1,900	$1.46	25d	1	1.01mi
7520 Hawthorn Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1303	$1,800	$1.38	25d	1	1.01mi
13306 Lakeshore Blvd Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,500	$0.88	0d	1	1.02mi
7531 Greybirch Ter Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,000	$1.43	25d	1	1.02mi
11241 Yewtree Ave Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,950	$1.49	25d	1	1.04mi
13121 Shadberry Ln Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1771	$1,889	$1.07	4d	1	1.04mi
13102 Pembrook Ct Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1221	$1,575	$1.29	25d	1	1.11mi
13013 Sawmill Way Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1519	$1,790	$1.18	6d	1	1.13mi
7216 Gulf Breeze Cir Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,731	$1.14	0d	1	1.19mi
7540 Venice Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1394	$1,775	$1.27	6d	1	1.19mi
7724 Tyson Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,550	$1.29	0d	1	1.19mi
7705 Ilex Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1349	$2,000	$1.48	25d	1	1.22mi
8811 Seeley Ln Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1981	$1,895	$0.96	19d	1	1.25mi
7804 Birchwood Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1512	$1,750	$1.16	25d	1	1.27mi
7835 Arbordale Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1661	$1,850	$1.11	25d	1	1.28mi
12535 3rd Isle Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1389	$2,600	$1.87	25d	1	1.36mi
8015 San Fernando Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1528	$2,400	$1.57	25d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-11
   listed $210,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $636 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,743 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,107/yr (+$92/mo · 174.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,064
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$636
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,845
• − Management: −$1,845
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$544
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$131
• After-tax cash flow: $3,090/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayonet Point

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #485
• US rank: #8934

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayonet Point, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,689
• Household income: $51,280
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 946.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -183.96%
• Current HPI: 307.5552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.26%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-11 Listed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $636 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.