1207 Thomwal St · Valdosta, GA 31602

$177,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,516 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 113 Days on market

Built 1961 0.34 ac lot $117/sqft · at area comps Est $174k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +6.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PROPERY BEING SOLD "AS-IS" 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH THAT HAS UNFINISHED / IMPROPER WORK TO BE COMPLETED FROM THE HURRICANE

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• Built 1961
• Listed 112 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $178k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $79 ($947/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.3% in Valdosta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#392 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Valdosta City (urban): math 15% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #149 of 174 in GA (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 267 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 896 units permitted in Lowndes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lowndes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $178k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,144 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.90%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $174,261
• List price: $177,900
• Delta: 2.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2002 Jerry Jones Dr	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,450 (-4%)	2mo	$154,500	$107	76
711 W Alden Ave	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,473 (-3%)	0mo	$179,900	$122	70
2215 Brighton Pl	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,723 (+14%)	0mo	$298,000	$173	68
1027 Alden Ave	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,666 (+10%)	4mo	$165,000	$99	65
1 Loganberry Cir	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,566 (+3%)	3mo	$199,000	$127	65
2302 Glynndale Dr	0.41mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,402 (-8%)	1mo	$200,000	$143	60
2211 Jerry Jones Dr	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,327 (-12%)	2mo	$169,000	$127	59
2223 S Sherwood Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,656 (+9%)	2mo	$200,000	$121	55
700 W Park Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,324 (-13%)	3mo	$202,500	$153	53
1309 Old Mill Pl	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-11%)	1mo	$145,000	$107	53
905 Maplewood Dr	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,692 (+12%)	0mo	$228,900	$135	52
2209 S Sherwood Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,740 (+15%)	2mo	$230,000	$132	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-21,965
• Equity at exit: $26,525

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-4,934
• Equity at exit: $15,382

Cash invested: $49,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31602

• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 267
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,541 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$933
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,581/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $79

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,442

Max offer price $177,900

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,475
• Closing costs: $5,337
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1213 McRee Dr Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	1588	$1,895	$1.19	43d	1	0.15mi
1308 W Alden Ave Valdosta, GA	3.0	1.5	1204	$1,050	$0.87	43d	1	0.29mi
2208 White Oak Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.5	2194	$1,975	$0.90	43d	1	0.34mi
1018 Cherokee St Valdosta, GA	3.0	1.5	1225	$1,375	$1.12	20d	1	0.39mi
2219 White Oak Dr Valdosta, GA	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,250	$2.05	43d	1	0.40mi
2 Westbrook Cir Apt B Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1469	$1,350	$0.92	43d	1	0.47mi
2092 S Sherwood Dr Valdosta, GA	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,350	$1.17	20d	1	0.52mi
702 Pineridge Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1736	$1,650	$0.95	43d	1	0.53mi
807 Cherokee Ave Unit A Valdosta, GA	2.0	2.5	1200	$2,000	$1.67	43d	1	0.53mi
2092 S Sherwood Dr Valdosta, GA	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,238	$1.07	43d	2	0.56mi
1314 Hastings Dr Unit C4 Valdosta, GA	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,095	$0.91	43d	1	0.58mi
1314 Hastings Dr Apt A2 Valdosta, GA	2.0	2.5	1100	$995	$0.90	20d	1	0.58mi
2124 Northwood Cir Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.5	2100	$1,850	$0.88	20d	1	0.58mi
1469 Green St Valdosta, GA	2.0	2.5	1139	$1,000	$0.88	20d	1	0.58mi
1612 Garland Pl Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,295	$1.02	43d	1	0.59mi
1202 Kimberly Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.5	1989	$1,600	$0.80	43d	1	0.59mi
1400 Baytree Dr Valdosta, GA	2.0–4.0	2.0–4.0	1277	$614	$0.48	43d	1	0.62mi
1903 Azalea Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	2128	$2,500	$1.17	43d	1	0.66mi
707 Baytree Dr Apt 1 Valdosta, GA	3.0	3.0	1222	$675	$0.55	43d	1	0.71mi
1307 Baytree Dr Apt E Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1756	$1,250	$0.71	43d	1	0.71mi
805 Harmon Dr Valdosta, GA	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1100	$1,775	$1.61	20d	6	0.78mi
607 Parker Mathis Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	1.5	1395	$1,495	$1.07	43d	1	0.80mi
1921 Gornto Rd Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,195	$0.91	43d	1	0.83mi
507 Roberts St Apt B Valdosta, GA	2.0	2.0	1114	$1,200	$1.08	20d	1	0.85mi
2502 Berkley Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,650	$1.11	20d	1	0.85mi
210 W Cranford Ave Valdosta, GA	3.0	3.0	2000	$1,650	$0.82	43d	1	1.00mi
210 W Cranford Ave Valdosta, GA	3.0	3.0	2000	$1,650	$0.82	20d	1	1.00mi
1505 Lankford Dr Valdosta, GA	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1166	$1,320	$1.13	20d	1	1.05mi
1400 W Magnolia St Valdosta, GA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1180	$1,600	$1.36	20d	1	1.13mi
1704 N Patterson St Unit 4 Valdosta, GA	2.0	2.0	1100	$950	$0.86	43d	1	1.16mi
2859 Fawnwood Cir Valdosta, GA	2.0	2.0	1173	$1,400	$1.19	20d	1	1.19mi
2878 Fawnwood Cir Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1400	$3,000	$2.14	43d	1	1.27mi
2409 Riverside Dr Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	1955	$1,950	$1.00	20d	1	1.29mi
2515 Churchill Dr Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	2140	$1,550	$0.72	43d	1	1.29mi
413 Georgetown Cir Valdosta, GA	2.0	2.0	1178	$1,400	$1.19	43d	1	1.34mi
2201 Baytree Rd Valdosta, GA	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1103	$1,750	$1.59	20d	12	1.41mi
1005 N Oak St Valdosta, GA	3.0	1.0	1087	$795	$0.73	43d	1	1.48mi
312 Eager Rd Valdosta, GA	3.0	3.0	1959	$1,895	$0.97	43d	1	1.49mi
1010 N Toombs St Valdosta, GA	2.0	1.5	1056	$1,000	$0.95	20d	3	1.49mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $177,900 Active 113 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $177,900 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $177,900 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $177,900 Active 110 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $177,900 Active 109 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $177,900 Active 107 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $177,900 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $177,900 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $177,900 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $177,900 Active 102 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $177,900 Active 101 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $177,900 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $177,900 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $177,900 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $177,900 Active 95 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $177,900 Active 94 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $177,900 Active 93 DOM
18. 2026-02-25
    listed $177,900 Active 124-char remark

    Show marketing remark (124 chars)

    PROPERY BEING SOLD "AS-IS" 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH THAT HAS UNFINISHED / IMPROPER WORK TO BE COMPLETED FROM THE HURRICANE

19. 2003-05-13
    soldstatus $99,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,581 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,637 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$56/yr (+$5/mo · 3.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,497
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,965
• − Property taxes: −$1,581
• − Insurance: −$890
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,480
• − Management: −$1,480
• − Depreciation: −$5,175
• Taxable loss: −$2,073
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$498
• After-tax cash flow: $1,445/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valdosta City
• NCES district ID: 1305310
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $30,634
• Composite: 14.79/100
• National rank: #9388
• State rank: #149 of 174 in GA

Livability — Valdosta

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #19544

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Valdosta, GA
• County: Lowndes County · 107,801 people
• City population: 91,859
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 35,728
• Household income: $56,939
• Rent vs Own: 56.4% rent · 43.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2034.0

Population outlook (Lowndes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,348 people
• By 2030: 123,469 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 128,482 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 131,907 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 139,080 · +15.6%
• By 2100: 133,649 · +11.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 42% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lowndes

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 40.8% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.4pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+18.2 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -150.60%
• Current HPI: 188.2012
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.19%
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+78.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Listed $177,900 SGMLS
• 2003-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $99,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,581 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.