11901 Sierra Way Way #29 · Kernville, CA 93238

$105,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 226 Days on market

Built 1980 Good condition $78/sqft · 17% above area Est $90k · 17% over ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your new home in Kernville, where comfort meets convenience in a vibrant senior community. Enjoy peace of mind knowing that upgrades have already been completed, ensuring a hassle-free move-in experience. This spacious two-bedroom, two-bath residence offers 1344 sf. of living space & features a semi-open-floor plan and numerous windows that offer abundant natural light, and scenic mountain views. The homes open design allows for effortless flow between living spaces making everyday living comfortable, convenient and great for entertaining. Upgrades include laminate flooring, windows & window coverings, cooler, stove & dishwasher. The guest bath has a walk-in shower & nice vanity. The main bedroom includes an en-suite with a spacious walk-in shower. Step outside where you can enjoy fresh air on the covered deck & patio. This property also includes low maintenance landscape, vinyl fencing, storage shed, and carport. The park has a great clubhouse for the residents with pool and a facility to enjoy with family & friends. Come experience dining at local restaurants, shopping, hiking, biking, camping, rafting, fishing, boating, swimming, skiing, and natural hot springs!!!

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Laminate flooring
• Semi-open-floor plan

Tags

• SEMI-OPEN-FLOOR PLAN
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• SCENIC MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• COVERED DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $353 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 1.9% in Kernville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 42/100 on livability (#1,366 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Kernville Union Elementary (rural): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,128 of 1,400 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $860 of equity ($726 loan paydown + $134 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 226 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 226 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.14%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $89,900
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: 16.80%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11901 Sierraway Way #9	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+7%)	0mo	$89,900	$62	83
11811 Luxton Lane Ln	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	22mo	$185,000	$128	63
11901 Sierra Way Way #35	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+14%)	21mo	$58,900	$38	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $20,131
• Equity at exit: $31,160

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.08×
• Total profit: $61,260
• Equity at exit: $37,995

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93238

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 46
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$131 /mo · $1,575/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $353

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,003

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
Burlando Rd Unit A Kernville, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,450	$1.53	3d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-05
   days on market $105,000 Active 226 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $105,000 Active 225 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $105,000 Active 224 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $105,000 Active 223 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $105,000 Active 222 DOM
6. 2026-04-21
   status Active 1232-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1232 chars)

   Welcome to your new home in Kernville, where comfort meets convenience in a vibrant senior community. Enjoy peace of mind knowing that upgrades have already been completed, ensuring a hassle-free move-in experience. This spacious two-bedroom, two-bath residence offers 1344 sf. of living space & features a semi-open-floor plan and numerous windows that offer abundant natural light, and scenic mountain views. The homes open design allows for effortless flow between living spaces making everyday living comfortable, convenient and great for entertaining. Upgrades include laminate flooring, windows & window coverings, cooler, stove & dishwasher. The guest bath has a walk-in shower & nice vanity. The main bedroom includes an en-suite with a spacious walk-in shower. Step outside where you can enjoy fresh air on the covered deck & patio. This property also includes low maintenance landscape, vinyl fencing, storage shed, and carport. The park has a great clubhouse for the residents with pool and a facility to enjoy with family & friends. Come experience dining at local restaurants, shopping, hiking, biking, camping, rafting, fishing, boating, swimming, skiing, and natural hot springs!!!

7. 2026-04-21
   price $105,000 1232-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1232 chars)

   Welcome to your new home in Kernville, where comfort meets convenience in a vibrant senior community. Enjoy peace of mind knowing that upgrades have already been completed, ensuring a hassle-free move-in experience. This spacious two-bedroom, two-bath residence offers 1344 sf. of living space & features a semi-open-floor plan and numerous windows that offer abundant natural light, and scenic mountain views. The homes open design allows for effortless flow between living spaces making everyday living comfortable, convenient and great for entertaining. Upgrades include laminate flooring, windows & window coverings, cooler, stove & dishwasher. The guest bath has a walk-in shower & nice vanity. The main bedroom includes an en-suite with a spacious walk-in shower. Step outside where you can enjoy fresh air on the covered deck & patio. This property also includes low maintenance landscape, vinyl fencing, storage shed, and carport. The park has a great clubhouse for the residents with pool and a facility to enjoy with family & friends. Come experience dining at local restaurants, shopping, hiking, biking, camping, rafting, fishing, boating, swimming, skiing, and natural hot springs!!!

8. 2025-11-19
   price $110,000 1232-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1232 chars)

   Welcome to your new home in Kernville, where comfort meets convenience in a vibrant senior community. Enjoy peace of mind knowing that upgrades have already been completed, ensuring a hassle-free move-in experience. This spacious two-bedroom, two-bath residence offers 1344 sf. of living space & features a semi-open-floor plan and numerous windows that offer abundant natural light, and scenic mountain views. The homes open design allows for effortless flow between living spaces making everyday living comfortable, convenient and great for entertaining. Upgrades include laminate flooring, windows & window coverings, cooler, stove & dishwasher. The guest bath has a walk-in shower & nice vanity. The main bedroom includes an en-suite with a spacious walk-in shower. Step outside where you can enjoy fresh air on the covered deck & patio. This property also includes low maintenance landscape, vinyl fencing, storage shed, and carport. The park has a great clubhouse for the residents with pool and a facility to enjoy with family & friends. Come experience dining at local restaurants, shopping, hiking, biking, camping, rafting, fishing, boating, swimming, skiing, and natural hot springs!!!

9. 2025-10-17
   listed $115,000 Active 1232-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1232 chars)

   Welcome to your new home in Kernville, where comfort meets convenience in a vibrant senior community. Enjoy peace of mind knowing that upgrades have already been completed, ensuring a hassle-free move-in experience. This spacious two-bedroom, two-bath residence offers 1344 sf. of living space & features a semi-open-floor plan and numerous windows that offer abundant natural light, and scenic mountain views. The homes open design allows for effortless flow between living spaces making everyday living comfortable, convenient and great for entertaining. Upgrades include laminate flooring, windows & window coverings, cooler, stove & dishwasher. The guest bath has a walk-in shower & nice vanity. The main bedroom includes an en-suite with a spacious walk-in shower. Step outside where you can enjoy fresh air on the covered deck & patio. This property also includes low maintenance landscape, vinyl fencing, storage shed, and carport. The park has a great clubhouse for the residents with pool and a facility to enjoy with family & friends. Come experience dining at local restaurants, shopping, hiking, biking, camping, rafting, fishing, boating, swimming, skiing, and natural hot springs!!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,575
• − Insurance: −$1,322
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,392
• − Management: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $2,782
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$668
• After-tax cash flow: $3,573/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home in Kernville is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed. It offers a spacious floor plan and is move-in ready with a great location.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood — Improves aesthetics and value
• Both Replace appliances — Modernizes and increases value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood — Improves aesthetics and value ↑
• Both Replace appliances — Modernizes and increases value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kernville Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0619590
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $29,896
• Composite: 25.91/100
• National rank: #12766
• State rank: #1128 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Kernville

• Score: 42/100
• State rank: #1366
• US rank: #27076

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment F Housing D- Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kernville, CA
• Population (ZIP): 726

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Pacific Islander 11% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 3% Black 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Italian 7%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Indo-European 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.13%
• Current HPI: 212.9272
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-8.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Relisted — SSMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $105,000 SSMLS
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $110,000 SSMLS
• 2025-10-17 Listed $115,000 SSMLS