2627 Dumbarton Rd · Fayetteville, NC 28306

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1972 Est $193k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great starter home with lots of charm. Many upgrades have been done to this home.

Key facts

• Updated appliances
• Light fixtures
• Parking

Tags

• UPDATED APPLIANCES
• LIGHT FIXTURES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Street lights in the community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; 1 covered space; 1 carport space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential zoning R10
• Construction: Brick veneer construction
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Partial fencing; Storage; Cleared lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Cooktop; Range; Range hood; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Crawl space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $202 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (5.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (5.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.9% in Fayetteville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Douglas Byrd Middle (math 13% / reading 30%, grade F, #422 of 475 statewide, top 89%, 935 students, 100% FRL); Douglas Byrd High (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #445 of 535 statewide, top 84%, 940 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 55% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 401 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $127k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,683 (5.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.08%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $192,660
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2609 Dumbarton Rd	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,164 (+2%)	7mo	$150,500	$129	83
3857 Cumberland Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,072 (-6%)	1mo	$205,000	$191	71
1415 Oldstead Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,162 (+2%)	8mo	$230,000	$198	66
2557 Previs Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,240 (+9%)	1mo	$193,000	$156	66
2228 Chasewater Rd	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+8%)	6mo	$245,000	$199	66
4521 Park Knoll Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,182 (+4%)	0mo	$200,000	$169	61
1424 Middlesbrough Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,210 (+6%)	6mo	$245,000	$202	60
2661 Upchurch Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,161 (+2%)	7mo	$180,000	$155	57
4212 Forest View Dr	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,098 (-4%)	1mo	$164,900	$150	55
2219 Puffin Pl	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,270 (+11%)	7mo	$262,000	$206	55
4604 Sterling St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,292 (+13%)	4mo	$207,500	$161	54
2175 Quailridge Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,208 (+6%)	5mo	$189,800	$157	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-18,072
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-12,453
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28306

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 401
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,607 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,265/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $202

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,352

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2621 Elcone Dr Unit 2621 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.5	815	$999	$1.23	14d	1	0.31mi
2207 Puffin Pl Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,950	$1.61	14d	1	0.44mi
5032 Shimmer Dr Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.0	1473	$1,750	$1.19	23d	1	0.64mi
5032 Shimmer Dr Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.0	1473	$1,700	$1.15	14d	1	0.64mi
1209 Snowy Egret Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.5	1470	$1,800	$1.22	23d	1	0.71mi
3038 Walesby Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,650	$1.30	23d	1	0.72mi
4630 Canterbury Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,350	$1.08	23d	1	0.75mi
2524 Penny Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1330	$1,400	$1.05	23d	1	0.76mi
2690 Belhaven Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	1264	$1,350	$1.07	23d	1	0.76mi
3918 Donna St Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	23d	1	0.85mi
5532 Robmont Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1301	$1,800	$1.38	14d	1	0.93mi
4615 Cumberland Rd Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	783	$825	$1.05	23d	1	0.95mi
2579 Gotts Ln Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,295	$1.08	21d	1	1.04mi
3100 Winesap Rd Hope Mills, NC	3.0	2.0	1082	$1,495	$1.38	14d	1	1.24mi
3325 Boone Trl Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.0	1494	$1,960	$1.31	14d	1	1.34mi
1805 Wayne Ln Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	975	$2,400	$2.46	23d	1	1.35mi
5151 Queensdale Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,295	$1.17	23d	1	1.37mi
5151 Queensdale Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,295	$1.17	14d	1	1.37mi
1055 Winnall LN Hope Mills, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1132	$2,000	$1.77	14d	20	1.47mi
4101 Coventry Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	1132	$1,150	$1.02	14d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $170,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   status $170,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-05-23
   status Pending
8. 2026-05-14
   listed $170,000 Active
9. 2022-02-04
   soldstatus $127,000
10. 2022-01-28
    soldstatus $127,000 81-char remark

    Show marketing remark (81 chars)

    Great starter home with lots of charm. Many upgrades have been done to this home.

11. 2021-12-07
    listed $119,000 81-char remark

    Show marketing remark (81 chars)

    Great starter home with lots of charm. Many upgrades have been done to this home.

12. 2016-10-26
    soldstatus $29,501 338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. Hardwood floors. Huge back yard with privacy. Some updated appliances and light fixtures. Excellent location. This home is owned by the Secretary of Veterans Affairs and is sold AS IS. All information is subject to buyer's verification. Property was built prior to 1978. Potential for Lead Based Paint exists.

13. 2016-09-22
    listed $28,450 338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. Hardwood floors. Huge back yard with privacy. Some updated appliances and light fixtures. Excellent location. This home is owned by the Secretary of Veterans Affairs and is sold AS IS. All information is subject to buyer's verification. Property was built prior to 1978. Potential for Lead Based Paint exists.

14. 2013-04-04
    soldstatus $40,000
15. 1991-08-13
    soldstatus $49,000
16. 1986-04-28
    soldstatus $36,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,265 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,394 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: +$129/yr (+$11/mo · 10.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 74% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,282
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$1,265
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,543
• − Management: −$1,543
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$386
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$93
• After-tax cash flow: $2,512/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Fayetteville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #4031

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 226,118
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 43,042
• Household income: $67,544
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1386.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.69%
• Current HPI: 239.7281
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.90%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+372.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $170,000 LPRMLS
• 2022-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $127,000 Public Records
• 2022-01-28 Sold (MLS) $127,000 LPRMLS
• 2021-12-07 Listed $119,000 LPRMLS
• 2016-10-26 Sold (MLS) $29,501 LPRMLS
• 2016-09-22 Listed $28,450 LPRMLS
• 2013-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 1991-08-13 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records
• 1986-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,265 · +59.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.