1561 St Joseph Dr SE · Oak Island, NC 28422

$330,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,896 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 2019 8,276 sqft lot Est $381k · 13% under $105/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located less than 15 minutes from Oak Island and 30 minutes from historic Southport, this wonderful 4-bedroom home features an open floor plan on the main level while all four bedrooms and the laundry room are on the 2nd floor. The main floor includes a half bath, LVP flooring, granite countertops, walk-in pantry and all appliances. Upstairs the Master Bedroom features a spacious ensuite bathroom and a walk-in closet. An additional 2-sink bathroom serves the other three bedrooms. The backyard is fenced. The community of Avalon is loaded with amenities including a pool, fitness center, pickleball courts, bocce ball, dog park, playground, kayak launch, picnic pavilion, fire pit and even a ful

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Walk-in closet
• Lvp flooring

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LVP FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R6000; Lot irregularly shaped, approximately 0.19 acres; Subdivision: Avalon
• HOA & community: Homeowners association; Annual association fee of $1,260 (about $105/month); Community pool; Sidewalks; Street lights; Dog park; Fitness center; Picnic area; Sport court

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Concrete parking
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Entry level: 1; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Slab foundation; Built on two stories
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Porch; Storm doors; Back yard wood fencing; Shingle roof; Paved road access; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating; Forced air; Heat pump
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Ceiling fans; Pantry; Window coverings; Accessible full bath
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-329 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (17.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (32.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (32.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.8% in Oak Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#233 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Virginia Williamson Elem (math 50% / reading 49%, grade D, #417 of 1,410 statewide, top 32%, 502 students, 99% FRL); Cedar Grove Middle (math 30% / reading 36%, grade F, #305 of 475 statewide, top 65%, 434 students, 99% FRL); South Brunswick High (math 62% / reading 57%, grade C+, #216 of 535 statewide, top 43%, 1,172 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 569 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,787 (32.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.27%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $381,096
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1208 Palatka Pl SE	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,830 (-4%)	0mo	$375,900	$205	76
1108 Burled Oak Ridge Loop SE Lot 40	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,770 (-7%)	2mo	$314,000	$177	72
1608 Godney Ct SE	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,636 (-14%)	1mo	$254,500	$156	70
1442 Evergreen Forest Dr SE	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,789 (-6%)	1mo	$307,000	$172	68
1728 Culdees Ln SE	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,618 (-15%)	2mo	$325,000	$201	68
1254 Palatka Pl SE	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,100 (+11%)	2mo	$398,900	$190	60
1590 Lightered Knot Ct SE	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,656 (-13%)	1mo	$315,000	$190	58
1609 Meridian Forest Dr SE	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,618 (-15%)	2mo	$290,000	$179	54
1157 Turnata Dr SE	0.55mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,059 (+9%)	1mo	$502,900	$244	52
1254 Mandevilla Dr SE	0.49mi	3/2.0	2,178 (+15%)	1mo	$437,500	$201	49
1155 Little Martha Way SE Lot 11	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,618 (-15%)	2mo	$365,000	$226	48
1213 St Simons Dr SE	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,100 (+11%)	2mo	$439,350	$209	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-74,503
• Equity at exit: $49,204

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-92,202
• Equity at exit: $28,532

Cash invested: $92,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28422

• Home prices YoY: -23.8%
• Active inventory: 569
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,218 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,294/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$105
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $-329

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,634

Max offer price $271,921

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-142	-5% $-235	+0% $-329	+5% $-422	+10% $-516
Rent	-10% $-504	-5% $-416	+0% $-329	+5% $-241	+10% $-154
Rate	-1.0pp $-163	-0.5pp $-245	base $-329	+0.5pp $-414	+1.0pp $-501

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,500
• Closing costs: $9,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2208 Lakefront Dr SE Bolivia, NC	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1595	$1,825	$1.14	14d	61	0.90mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $105 · $1,260/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $330,000 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $330,000 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $330,000 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $330,000 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $330,000 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $330,000 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $330,000 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $330,000 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $330,000 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $330,000 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $330,000 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $330,000 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $340,000 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $340,000 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $340,000 Active 79 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $340,000 Active 78 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    price $340,000
18. 2026-03-12
    listed $350,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,294 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,706 · $226/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,412/yr (+$118/mo · 109.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,614
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,485
• − Property taxes: −$1,294
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,129
• − Management: −$2,129
• − HOA: −$1,260
• − Depreciation: −$9,600
• Taxable loss: −$9,933
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,384
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,561/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

Livability — Oak Island

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #233
• US rank: #10757

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brunswick County · 131,536 people
• City population: 8,756
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 10,059
• Household income: $69,412
• Rent vs Own: 13.7% rent · 86.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 243.0

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.19%
• Current HPI: 141.1956
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $340,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $350,000 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,294 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.