1 Lodge 606-Q · Manson, WA 98831

$1

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,067 sqft · Timeshare · 68 Days on market

Built 1984 $0/sqft · 95% below area $246/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Newly REMODELED with high end finishes! Ground Floor CORNER 2 Bedroom 2 Bath fully equipped condo. Buy NOW & use August 7-14 & December 4-11 in 2026. January 1-8, May 14-21 & September 10-17 in 2027. February 11-18, June 9-16 & October 6-13 in 2028. Only 5 units in this building gives you a great feeling of privacy. Beautiful lake & mountain views & spacious lawn areas from your private patio. Outdoor pool only steps from the condo. Located next to indoor pool, hot tub, exercise facility & just across the lawn are world class resort amenities: boat moorage, sandy beach waterfront, mini-golf, children's activity center, watercraft rentals, basket

Key facts

• Parking
• Community pool
• Built 1984

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath timeshare listed at $1.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $1).
• Cap rate 1476742.7% vs local median 2.9% in Manson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#421 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living D+, employment D.
• Manson School District (town): math 42% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #211 of 291 in WA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 212 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 762 units permitted in Chelan County in 2024 (377 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $0 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $0 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chelan County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $0 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($0) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 186914.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 1476742.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 5274058.67%
• DSCR: 234666.93
• GRM: 0.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $18
• List price: $1
• Delta: -94.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1 Lodge 632-C	0.04mi	2/2.0	981 (-8%)	4mo	$500	$1	82
1 Lakeside 701-B	0.10mi	2/2.0	981 (-8%)	2mo	$2,000	$2	80
1 Lakeside 711-F	0.09mi	2/2.0	981 (-8%)	4mo	$4,500	$5	79
1 Lakeside 720-P	0.10mi	2/2.0	981 (-8%)	4mo	$1,000	$1	78
1 Lakeside 720-H	0.10mi	2/2.0	981 (-8%)	6mo	$1	—	76
1 Lakeside 715-Q	0.10mi	2/2.0	981 (-8%)	8mo	$3,500	$4	76
1 Beach 549-I	0.29mi	2/2.0	964 (-10%)	2mo	$1	—	69
1 Beach 553-A	0.26mi	2/2.0	964 (-10%)	4mo	$3,500	$4	69
1 Beach 534-O	0.26mi	2/2.0	964 (-10%)	4mo	$2,600	$3	68
1 Beach 536-J	0.25mi	2/2.0	964 (-10%)	8mo	$1	—	65
1 Beach 538-C	0.66mi	2/2.0	964 (-10%)	1mo	$1	—	53
1 Beach 542-C	0.66mi	2/2.0	964 (-10%)	5mo	$3,500	$4	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 280564.10×
• Total profit: $78,558
• Equity at exit: $0

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 607358.61×
• Total profit: $170,060
• Equity at exit: $0

Cash invested: $0 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98831

• Active inventory: 212

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,869 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$0
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$0 /mo · $0/yr
• Insurance: −$0
• HOA: −$246
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $1,231

Break-even live

Break-even rent $311

Max offer price $1

Occupancy floor 29%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $0
• Closing costs: $0
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
250 S Harris Ave Unit A Manson, WA	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,995	$1.43	43d	1	0.29mi
139 Chandler Rd Unit 16D Manson, WA	1.0	1.0	800	$1,295	$1.62	43d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $246 · $2,952/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $1 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $1 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1 Active 50 DOM
16. 2026-04-11
    listed $1 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥95°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 23 unhealthy d/yr today · 25 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,430
• − Mortgage interest: −$0
• − Property taxes: −$0
• − Insurance: −$0
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,794
• − Management: −$1,794
• − HOA: −$2,952
• − Depreciation: −$0
• Taxable income: $15,889
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,813
• After-tax cash flow: $10,954/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manson School District
• NCES district ID: 5304740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,123
• Composite: 37.53/100
• National rank: #8876
• State rank: #211 of 291 in WA

Livability — Manson

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #421
• US rank: #16741

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manson, WA
• Population (ZIP): 4,020

Population outlook (Chelan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,630 people
• By 2030: 84,312 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 88,619 · +8.6%
• By 2050: 91,915 · +12.6%
• By 2075: 99,409 · +21.8%
• By 2100: 100,032 · +22.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (57%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 40% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Portuguese 5% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 38% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chelan

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.5) · D 43.9% · R 53.4% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: -12.0pp · 2024: -9.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.5 2020: R+7.8 2016: R+15.7 2012: R+16.9 2008: R+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -325.60%
• Current HPI: 249.0392
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B