149 Whinny Way · Georgetown, TX 78626

$299,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,538 sqft · Condo · 65 Days on market

Built 2026 $195/sqft · 12% below area Est $341k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Brazos Texas Flair with Contemporary EleganceWelcome to the Brazos floor plan, where Texas flair meets contemporary elegance. This spacious two-story home offers 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, covering 1,538 square feet of artfully designed living space. As you step into the inviting foyer, you'll find a convenient half bathroom, leading you effortlessly into the open-concept layout. The well-appointed kitchen features a central island, perfect for meal prep and casual dining. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the dining room and family room, creating a warm and welcoming space for family gatherings and entertaining. Upstairs, the master bedroom awaits as a peaceful retreat complete with ample closet space. Additionally, three more bedrooms provide plenty of space for family or guests, all thoughtfully designed to ensure comfort and privacy. An additional full bathroom upstairs adds to the overall convenience. Experience the perfect blend of Texas flair and contemporary elegance with the Brazos floor plan. Make it your new home today!

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 2026
• Listed 65 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-189 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (31.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (31.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.4% in Georgetown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#18 in TX, #1,294 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Georgetown ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #474 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: James E Mitchell El (math 28% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 724 students, 49% FRL); James Tippit Middle (math 26% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,662 statewide, top 66%, 628 students, 49% FRL); East View H S (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,075 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 571 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,809 (31.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.70%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $341,199
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -12.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-66,808
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-97,521
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78626

• Rents YoY: -3.5%
• Active inventory: 571
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,058 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,410/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-189

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,298

Max offer price $266,469

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-19	-5% $-104	+0% $-189	+5% $-274	+10% $-359
Rent	-10% $-352	-5% $-271	+0% $-189	+5% $-108	+10% $-27
Rate	-1.0pp $-38	-0.5pp $-113	base $-189	+0.5pp $-267	+1.0pp $-346

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
307 Alamar Knot Way Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.5	1336	$1,990	$1.49	45d	1	0.14mi
555 White Steppe Way Georgetown, TX	3.0	3.0	1406	$1,795	$1.28	5d	1	0.15mi
420 White Steppe Way Georgetown, TX	4.0	2.5	1593	$1,950	$1.22	26d	1	0.21mi
120 Lasino Dr Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1358	$1,995	$1.47	9d	1	0.33mi
121 Crescent St Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,990	$1.31	45d	1	0.46mi
105 Crescent St Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$2,100	$1.39	19d	1	0.49mi
8145 Daisy Cutter Xing Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.5	1905	$2,150	$1.13	45d	1	0.50mi
1208 Fairhaven Gtwy Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1566	$1,975	$1.26	45d	1	0.53mi
2514 Bell Gin Rd Georgetown, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1258	$2,286	$1.82	0d	30	0.56mi
1121 Fairhaven Gtwy Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.5	1845	$2,050	$1.11	19d	1	0.56mi
221 Arabian Colt Dr Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,850	$1.27	45d	1	0.56mi
508 Rearing Mare Pass Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.5	1916	$2,145	$1.12	0d	1	0.62mi
312 Gidran Trl Georgetown, TX	4.0	2.0	1624	$2,049	$1.26	18d	1	0.70mi
417 Shiner Ln Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,900	$1.38	45d	1	0.72mi
1200 Nokota Bnd Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1966	$1,950	$0.99	45d	1	0.73mi
5132 Vanner Path Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,995	$1.46	26d	1	0.75mi
409 Otto Ave Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.5	1845	$2,050	$1.11	19d	1	0.76mi
5128 Vanner Path Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,130	$1.39	19d	1	0.76mi
9224 Daisy Cutter Xing Georgetown, TX	4.0	2.0	2071	$2,200	$1.06	18d	1	0.79mi
441 Otto Ave Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1435	$1,769	$1.23	18d	1	0.80mi
5121 Vanner Path Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1531	$2,145	$1.40	9d	1	0.81mi
604 Bridle Creek Dr Georgetown, TX	4.0	3.0	2088	$2,375	$1.14	26d	1	0.86mi
521 Otto Ave Georgetown, TX	4.0	3.5	2220	$2,297	$1.03	13d	1	0.86mi
5121 Saddle Club Dr Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.5	1872	$2,169	$1.16	5d	1	0.87mi
3544 Catlett Creek Rd Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,859	$1.50	45d	1	0.89mi
804 Bridle Creek Dr Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1353	$1,870	$1.38	45d	1	0.90mi
5002 Saddle Club Dr Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.5	1872	$2,209	$1.18	5d	1	0.91mi
5217 Sidesaddle Dr Georgetown, TX	4.0	2.0	1557	$2,089	$1.34	26d	1	0.92mi
304 Potters Peak Way Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.5	1971	$1,875	$0.95	26d	1	0.95mi
105 Brunnen Way Georgetown, TX	4.0	2.0	2005	$2,200	$1.10	0d	1	0.95mi
307 Green Slope Ln Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1552	$2,000	$1.29	6d	1	0.97mi
812 Black Alder St Georgetown, TX	4.0	3.0	2034	$2,100	$1.03	9d	1	1.04mi
313 Avalanche Ave Georgetown, TX	4.0	2.0	1198	$1,750	$1.46	45d	1	1.05mi
210 Avalanche Ave Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1319	$1,020	$0.77	4d	1	1.07mi
335 Avalanche Ave Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.5	1654	$2,000	$1.21	22d	1	1.07mi
104 Pinnacle Dr Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1122	$1,745	$1.56	6d	1	1.10mi
608 Mais Dr Georgetown, TX	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,150	$1.16	45d	1	1.11mi
632 Reinhardt Blvd Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.5	2143	$1,999	$0.93	26d	1	1.12mi
140 Dodge Rd Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.5	1424	$1,575	$1.11	45d	1	1.14mi
205 Saide St Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.5	1750	$1,895	$1.08	45d	1	1.15mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,900 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $299,900 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $311,170 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $311,170 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $311,170 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $311,170 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $311,170 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $311,170 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $311,170 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-04-17
    listed $311,170 Active 1053-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1053 chars)

    The Brazos Texas Flair with Contemporary EleganceWelcome to the Brazos floor plan, where Texas flair meets contemporary elegance. This spacious two-story home offers 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, covering 1,538 square feet of artfully designed living space. As you step into the inviting foyer, you'll find a convenient half bathroom, leading you effortlessly into the open-concept layout. The well-appointed kitchen features a central island, perfect for meal prep and casual dining. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the dining room and family room, creating a warm and welcoming space for family gatherings and entertaining. Upstairs, the master bedroom awaits as a peaceful retreat complete with ample closet space. Additionally, three more bedrooms provide plenty of space for family or guests, all thoughtfully designed to ensure comfort and privacy. An additional full bathroom upstairs adds to the overall convenience. Experience the perfect blend of Texas flair and contemporary elegance with the Brazos floor plan. Make it your new home today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,410 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,488 · $457/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,079/yr (+$340/mo · 289.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,697
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$1,410
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,976
• − Management: −$1,976
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$7,687
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,845
• After-tax cash flow: $-426/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Georgetown ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820600
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $69,461
• Composite: 31.77/100
• National rank: #5897
• State rank: #474 of 826 in TX

Livability — Georgetown

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #18
• US rank: #1294

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Georgetown, TX
• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 128,203
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,072
• Household income: $100,431
• Rent vs Own: 38.2% rent · 61.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1384.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -215.77%
• Current HPI: 198.0316
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.48%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $311,170 Zillow

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,410 · -3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.