37 Aldridge Ln · Hardinsburg, KY 40144

$89,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Other · 52 Days on market

Built 1996 1.04 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

SOLD AS IS. Buyer responsible for current and past due (if any) property taxes.

Key facts

• Utility room
• Blacktop floor
• 1.047 acres

Tags

• KITCHEN DINING COMBO
• UTILITY ROOM
• METAL SIDED POLE BARN
• BLACKTOP FLOOR
• FRONT PORCH
• 1.047 ACRES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Residential mobile home; Single-family style
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Barn(s); Approximately 1.04-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric range; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fan(s); Forced air heating; Electric heating
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $377 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 2.4% in Hardinsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#250 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Breckinridge County (rural): math 31% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #51 of 165 in KY (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Breckinridge County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Breckinridge County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $90k implies a 176% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $87,203 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.97%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.51% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $32,483
• Equity at exit: $37,951

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.37×
• Total profit: $84,923
• Equity at exit: $56,633

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40144

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,172 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $484/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $377

Break-even live

Break-even rent $695

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $428	-5% $402	+0% $377	+5% $351	+10% $326
Rent	-10% $284	-5% $331	+0% $377	+5% $423	+10% $469
Rate	-1.0pp $422	-0.5pp $400	base $377	+0.5pp $354	+1.0pp $330

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   price $89,900
3. 2026-03-09
   listed $110,000 Active
4. 2006-11-27
   soldstatus $32,600 79-char remark

   Show marketing remark (79 chars)

   SOLD AS IS. Buyer responsible for current and past due (if any) property taxes.

5. 2006-09-03
   historical
6. 2006-05-03
   listed $39,900 79-char remark

   Show marketing remark (79 chars)

   SOLD AS IS. Buyer responsible for current and past due (if any) property taxes.

7. 2006-05-03
   listed $45,900

   Show marketing remark (79 chars)

   SOLD AS IS. Buyer responsible for current and past due (if any) property taxes.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $484 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $773 · $64/mo
• Expected delta: +$289/yr (+$24/mo · 59.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,067
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$484
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,125
• − Management: −$1,125
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $3,232
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$776
• After-tax cash flow: $3,747/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Breckinridge County
• NCES district ID: 2100720
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $42,042
• Composite: 31.2/100
• National rank: #6041
• State rank: #51 of 165 in KY

Livability — Hardinsburg

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #250
• US rank: #12568

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,740

Population outlook (Breckinridge County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,487 people
• By 2030: 18,994 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 17,825 · -8.5%
• By 2050: 16,640 · -14.6%
• By 2075: 14,155 · -27.4%
• By 2100: 11,696 · -40.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Iranian 6% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Breckinridge

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.3% · R 78.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+51.6 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+25.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.51%
• Current HPI: 286.5602
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+125.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — HKARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $89,900 HKARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $110,000 HKARMLS
• 2006-11-27 Sold (MLS) $32,600 Metro Search MLS
• 2006-09-03 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2006-05-03 Listed $45,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2006-05-03 Listed $39,900 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+11.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $484 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.