3030 40th Ave NW · Wheeler, MN 56623

$109,000

3 bd · 5.0 ba · 924 sqft · Other · 78 Days on market

Built 2016 5.30 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Set on 5.3 private acres near the highly sought-after Lake of the Woods, this property offers a rare opportunity to build your dream home in a peaceful, well-prepared setting. The land is cleared and ready, featuring a gravel driveway and essential infrastructure already in place—saving you time and significant upfront costs. The property includes a 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home currently on site, ideal for temporary use or to remove and make way for a custom build. A standout feature is the detached bathhouse, complete with in-floor heat, two showers, and laundry facilities—perfect for guests, future construction use, or added convenience. Built with future expansion in mind, the property is equipped with a private well and a septic system rated for up to a 5-bedroom home. Whether you're planning a seasonal retreat or a full-time residence, the groundwork is already done. Additional value comes with included equipment and extras: a zero-turn mower, pull-behind Kunz brush mower, ice fishing house, and two 500-gallon propane tanks—everything you need to maintain and enjoy the property from day one. Located just minutes from world-class fishing, boating, and year-round recreation at Lake of the Woods, this is an ideal investment for those looking to create a custom home or getaway in a prime Northern Minnesota location.

Key facts

• Private acres
• Laundry facilities
• In-floor heat

Tags

• PRIVATE ACRES
• GRAVEL DRIVEWAY
• DETACHED BATHHOUSE
• IN-FLOOR HEAT
• TWO SHOWERS
• LAUNDRY FACILITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/5.0-bath other listed at $109k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $107 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $95k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $95k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lake Of The Woods School District (rural): math 30% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #259 of 301 in MN (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Lake of the Woods County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake of the Woods County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,929 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.22%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-10,886
• Equity at exit: $16,252

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-901
• Equity at exit: $9,424

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56623

• Home prices YoY: -15.0%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $949 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $308/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$199
• Net cashflow: $107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $814

Max offer price $109,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,000 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,000 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $109,000 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,000 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,000 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $109,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $109,000 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,000 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,000 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $109,000 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-04-01
    listed $119,000 Active 1367-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1367 chars)

    Set on 5.3 private acres near the highly sought-after Lake of the Woods, this property offers a rare opportunity to build your dream home in a peaceful, well-prepared setting. The land is cleared and ready, featuring a gravel driveway and essential infrastructure already in place—saving you time and significant upfront costs. The property includes a 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home currently on site, ideal for temporary use or to remove and make way for a custom build. A standout feature is the detached bathhouse, complete with in-floor heat, two showers, and laundry facilities—perfect for guests, future construction use, or added convenience. Built with future expansion in mind, the property is equipped with a private well and a septic system rated for up to a 5-bedroom home. Whether you're planning a seasonal retreat or a full-time residence, the groundwork is already done. Additional value comes with included equipment and extras: a zero-turn mower, pull-behind Kunz brush mower, ice fishing house, and two 500-gallon propane tanks—everything you need to maintain and enjoy the property from day one. Located just minutes from world-class fishing, boating, and year-round recreation at Lake of the Woods, this is an ideal investment for those looking to create a custom home or getaway in a prime Northern Minnesota location.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $308 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $764 · $64/mo
• Expected delta: +$456/yr (+$38/mo · 148.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,391
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$308
• − Insurance: −$545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$911
• − Management: −$911
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable loss: −$561
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$135
• After-tax cash flow: $1,422/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Of The Woods School District
• NCES district ID: 2717570
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $45,937
• Composite: 29.52/100
• National rank: #6498
• State rank: #259 of 301 in MN

Livability — Wheeler

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,684

Population outlook (Lake of the Woods County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,706 people
• By 2030: 3,565 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 3,224 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 2,957 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 2,685 · -27.5%
• By 2100: 2,544 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 7%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 22% Scottish 6% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake of the Woods

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.8% · R 72.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.9pp toward R · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+42.9 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+20.1 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.47%
• Current HPI: 184.2846
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $119,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid