1800 Timber Lane Rd · Gautier, MS 39553

$125,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,534 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1977 9,583 sqft lot Est $167k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

REDONE ECONOMY HOME! 3 BR, 2BA. CERAMIC TILE. NEW HOT WATER HEATER. NEW PAINT. FENCED YARD. LARGE DEN. FRIDGE. CEILING FANS. OWNER IS AGENT

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• Built 1977
• Listed 17 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family house; One level
• Construction: Brick and siding construction; Slab foundation; Architectural shingle roof; Built in public records (year available in public records)
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing; Near entertainment

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing electric range; Water heater
• Flooring: Concrete floors; Tile floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating present (other type); Ceiling fans for cooling; Window cooling units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; Aluminum frame windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $379 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 4.2% in Gautier — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#89 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools D, employment D.
• Pascagoula-Gautier School District (urban): math 40% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #41 of 130 in MS (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 208 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,125 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.01%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $167,206
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1700 Kingfisher Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,605 (+5%)	16mo	$175,000	$109	69
1513 Kingfisher Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,355 (-12%)	7mo	$175,000	$129	60
1500 Riverside Dr	0.39mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,317 (-14%)	18mo	$129,900	$99	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $3,939
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $34,649
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39553

• Home prices YoY: -17.0%
• Active inventory: 208
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,574 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $379

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7908 Martin Bluff Rd Gautier, MS	3.0	2.0	1365	$1,450	$1.06	14d	1	0.92mi
8210 Exchange St Gautier, MS	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	14d	1	1.19mi
2005 Parkview Dr Gautier, MS	4.0	2.0	1793	$1,700	$0.95	21d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Active
2. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
3. 2026-05-01
   listed $125,000 Active
4. 2011-04-18
   soldstatus 139-char remark

   Show marketing remark (139 chars)

   REDONE ECONOMY HOME! 3 BR, 2BA. CERAMIC TILE. NEW HOT WATER HEATER. NEW PAINT. FENCED YARD. LARGE DEN. FRIDGE. CEILING FANS. OWNER IS AGENT

5. 2011-02-08
   listed $59,500 139-char remark

   Show marketing remark (139 chars)

   REDONE ECONOMY HOME! 3 BR, 2BA. CERAMIC TILE. NEW HOT WATER HEATER. NEW PAINT. FENCED YARD. LARGE DEN. FRIDGE. CEILING FANS. OWNER IS AGENT

6. 2010-12-06
   soldstatus 158-char remark

   Show marketing remark (158 chars)

   This property is now under Auction terms. Please contact listing agent for details and commission paid on this property. To submit offer go to www.auction.com

7. 2010-02-23
   listed $39,900 158-char remark

   Show marketing remark (158 chars)

   This property is now under Auction terms. Please contact listing agent for details and commission paid on this property. To submit offer go to www.auction.com

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,886
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,511
• − Management: −$1,511
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $2,726
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$654
• After-tax cash flow: $3,900/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pascagoula-Gautier School District
• NCES district ID: 2803480
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,392
• Composite: 32.86/100
• National rank: #5613
• State rank: #41 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gautier

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #89
• US rank: #11250

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gautier, MS
• County: Jackson County · 82,196 people
• City population: 17,225
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 17,225
• Household income: $57,460
• Rent vs Own: 28.4% rent · 71.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 653.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,926 people
• By 2030: 148,442 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 149,631 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 148,723 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 147,845 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 144,510 · -1.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 28% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Chinese 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.5% · R 69.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+39.9 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.77%
• Current HPI: 209.1746
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+213.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Relisted — MLSU
• 2026-05-07 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-05-01 Listed $125,000 MLSU
• 2011-04-18 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2011-02-08 Listed $59,500 MLSU
• 2010-12-06 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2010-02-23 Listed $39,900 MLSU