519 Goss St · Varna, NY 14850

$47,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured · 46 Days on market

Built 1983 Fair condition $48/sqft · 28% above area Est $37k · 28% over $505/mo HOA · 28% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked along a quiet dead-end road in Hillside Acres, this peaceful two-bedroom, one-bath home offers an affordable opportunity just minutes from Cornell University. Inside, a comfortable open floor plan features a spacious kitchen with an eat-at peninsula flowing into the living area, a full bath with convenient laundry, and a generously sized primary bedroom. The second bedroom is ideal for guests or a home office. Enjoy easy, low-maintenance living with parking right out front, a covered patio for relaxing, and lovely sunsets over the pastoral fields behind the home. Recent updates include a new roof, some new appliances, updated windows and doors, and significant new flooring. Located n

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Covered patio
• Quiet dead-end road

Tags

• QUIET DEAD-END ROAD
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• EAT-AT PENINSULA
• FULL BATH WITH LAUNDRY
• COVERED PATIO
• NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Rectangular lot on a city street with public road maintenance
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a monthly fee of $505; Land is leased with a monthly land lease of $505

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Gravel parking; No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected; Water connected; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One story
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Other/see remarks foundation; Built by Skyline (manufactured home)
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Patio; Shed(s) and storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven and gas range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Ductless cooling; Ductless heating; Electric heating; Forced air; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; 4 total rooms; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $47k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $525 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $47k).
• Recommended offer: $46k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ithaca City School District (urban): math 57% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #195 of 590 in NY (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Caroline Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 293 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 32% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 64% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Ithaca City School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 327 active listings in the ZIP; 382 units permitted in Tompkins County in 2024 (208 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $325 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tompkins County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($46k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 28% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $45,590 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.96%
• DSCR: 3.40
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $36,846
• List price: $47,000
• Delta: 27.56%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
211 Pauls Way	0.12mi	2/1.0	924 (-6%)	11mo	$35,000	$38	75
205 Graduate Dr	0.15mi	2/2.0	980 (0%)	22mo	$5,000	$5	71
705 Mussell St	0.26mi	2/1.0	840 (-14%)	3mo	$26,000	$31	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $30,326
• Equity at exit: $7,008

10-year hold

• IRR: 56.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.74×
• Total profit: $88,666
• Equity at exit: $4,064

Cash invested: $13,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14850

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 327
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,799 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$246
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$59 /mo · $705/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$505
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $525

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,135

Max offer price $47,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $558	-5% $542	+0% $525	+5% $509	+10% $493
Rent	-10% $383	-5% $454	+0% $525	+5% $596	+10% $667
Rate	-1.0pp $549	-0.5pp $537	base $525	+0.5pp $513	+1.0pp $501

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,750
• Closing costs: $1,410
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $505 · $6,060/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $47,000 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $47,000 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $47,000 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $47,000 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $47,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $47,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $47,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $47,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $47,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $47,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $47,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $47,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $47,000 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $47,000 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $47,000 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $47,000 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-04
    listed $47,000 Active 798-char remark
18. 2025-12-22
    historical
19. 2025-12-22
    historical
20. 2025-12-21
    historical
21. 2025-12-04
    status Active
22. 2025-12-01
    status Pending
23. 2025-11-15
    price $47,000
24. 2025-09-24
    price $53,000
25. 2025-07-01
    listed $55,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,593
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,633
• − Property taxes: −$705
• − Insurance: −$1,032
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,727
• − Management: −$1,727
• − HOA: −$6,060
• − Depreciation: −$1,367
• Taxable income: $6,341
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,522
• After-tax cash flow: $4,782/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This mobile home requires moderate repairs and updates to improve its condition and value. Recent updates include a new roof and windows, but the home's exterior and interior paneling show signs of wear. Painting and updating the exterior siding would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor exterior siding — slight wear
• Minor interior paneling — slight wear

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal
• Resale update exterior siding — improves home's appearance
• Resale update interior paneling — enhances home's appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
interior paneling · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale update exterior siding — improves home's appearance ↑
• Resale update interior paneling — enhances home's appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ithaca City School District
• NCES district ID: 3615570
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $46,528
• Composite: 54.01/100
• National rank: #1397
• State rank: #195 of 590 in NY

Livability — Varna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Varna, NY
• County: Tompkins County · 68,610 people
• Metro: Ithaca, NY
• Population (ZIP): 68,610
• Household income: $71,445
• Rent vs Own: 55.2% rent · 44.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 5169.0

Population outlook (Tompkins County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,958 people
• By 2030: 118,774 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 125,927 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 133,599 · +17.2%
• By 2075: 156,759 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 169,896 · +49.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Asian 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Chinese 5% Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Tompkins

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+50.6) · D 75.3% · R 24.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.6pp toward D · 2008: 42.1pp · 2024: 50.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+50.6 2020: D+49.2 2016: D+42.1 2012: D+39.8 2008: D+42.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -276.59%
• Current HPI: 389.7215
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.22%
• Metro: Ithaca, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-14.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $47,000 IBRMLS
• 2025-12-22 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2025-12-22 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2025-12-21 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2025-12-04 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2025-12-01 Pending — CNYIS
• 2025-11-15 Price Changed $47,000 CNYIS
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $53,000 CNYIS
• 2025-07-01 Listed $55,000 CNYIS