1604 Iron Truss Rd · San Marcos, TX 78666

$213,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,484 sqft · SingleFamily · 18 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $211k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $210,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home; Active listing
• Exterior features: Address: 1604 Iron Truss Rd, San Marcos, TX 78666

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (Newlin plan); Living area approximately 1,484

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $214k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-317/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.1% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#30 in TX, #1,601 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, employment F.
• San Marcos CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #731 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1122 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,858 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.53%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $210,728
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
316 Trinity River Holw	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-1%)	3mo	$208,990	$142	87
204 Navidad River Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+1%)	1mo	$211,999	$141	85
303 Navidad River Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-1%)	5mo	$212,990	$144	84
228 Navidad River Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+1%)	2mo	$225,990	$151	83
236 Navidad River Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+1%)	3mo	$199,990	$133	82
308 Navidad River Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+1%)	2mo	$199,990	$133	81
248 Navidad River Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+1%)	5mo	$205,990	$137	80
216 Navidad River Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-7%)	2mo	$199,990	$145	79
249 Trinity River Holw	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-7%)	1mo	$196,999	$143	79
313 Trinity River Holw	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-7%)	2mo	$196,990	$143	77
229 Navidad River Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+12%)	3mo	$231,990	$139	62
304 Trinity River Holw	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+12%)	5mo	$227,990	$137	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-38,200
• Equity at exit: $31,908

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-42,827
• Equity at exit: $18,503

Cash invested: $59,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78666

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1122
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,839 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,122
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$267 /mo · $3,210/yr
• Insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,872

Max offer price $210,176

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $121	-5% $48	+0% $-26	+5% $-100	+10% $-174
Rent	-10% $-172	-5% $-99	+0% $-26	+5% $46	+10% $119
Rate	-1.0pp $81	-0.5pp $28	base $-26	+0.5pp $-82	+1.0pp $-138

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,500
• Closing costs: $6,420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
308 Navidad River Dr San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	24d	1	0.24mi
426 Spring River Dr Martindale, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$2,250	$1.78	24d	1	1.15mi
121 Butler Ln Martindale, TX	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,850	$1.63	24d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $213,999 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $213,999 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $213,999 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $213,999 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $213,999 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $207,999 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $207,999 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $207,999 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   pricedays on market $207,999 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,999 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,999 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    remarks 399-char remark
13. 2026-05-31
    listed $210,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,063
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,987
• − Property taxes: −$3,210
• − Insurance: −$1,070
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,765
• − Management: −$1,765
• − Depreciation: −$6,225
• Taxable loss: −$3,960
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$950
• After-tax cash flow: $633/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-level home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good foundation, roof, and exterior, and is move-in ready with minor maintenance and cosmetic updates needed to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Replace kitchen countertops — New countertops can improve functionality and aesthetics.
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replace kitchen countertops — New countertops can improve functionality and aesthetics. ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Marcos CISD
• NCES district ID: 4838970
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $34,538
• Composite: 20.11/100
• National rank: #8644
• State rank: #731 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Marcos

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #1601

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Marcos, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 88,583
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 88,583
• Household income: $54,737
• Rent vs Own: 61.9% rent · 38.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 6504.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 20% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.27%
• Current HPI: 187.6679
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B