Whitetail Plan · Iowa Colony, TX 77583

$315,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,085 sqft · SingleFamily · 369 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 368 days

🏗️ New construction. The $315,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $314,581.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $316k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $73 ($880/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $284k (10.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $278k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.2% in Iowa Colony — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#757 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1148 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 369 days — a 12% lower offer ($278k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $278,071 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 369 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.00%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $314,581
• List price: $315,990
• Delta: 0.45%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2707 Jasper Oaks Dr	0.24mi	4/2.0	2,009 (-4%)	1mo	$388,306	$193	80
2619 Jasper Oaks Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,009 (-4%)	6mo	$420,000	$209	70
8830 Ice Quartz Dr	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,339 (+12%)	4mo	$349,900	$150	70
8315 Holly Blue Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,093 (+0%)	1mo	$421,240	$201	69
8934 Ice Quartz Dr	0.18mi	4/2.5	2,339 (+12%)	4mo	$349,900	$150	68
8227 Holly Blue Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,093 (+0%)	3mo	$423,240	$202	65
8215 Holly Blue Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,093 (+0%)	4mo	$421,240	$201	63
8930 Ice Quartz Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,778 (-15%)	4mo	$313,900	$177	62
8314 Holly Blue Dr	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,393 (+15%)	2mo	$438,540	$183	49
8302 Holly Blue Dr	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,393 (+15%)	4mo	$436,540	$182	46
8218 Holly Blue Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,393 (+15%)	5mo	$438,540	$183	44
8203 Holly Blue Dr	0.60mi	4/3.0	2,393 (+15%)	6mo	$449,540	$188	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-53,408
• Equity at exit: $46,905

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-68,172
• Equity at exit: $27,199

Cash invested: $88,083 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1148
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,845 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,650
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$393 /mo · $4,719/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$597
• Net cashflow: $73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,752

Max offer price $314,581

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $291	-5% $182	+0% $73	+5% $-35	+10% $-144
Rent	-10% $-151	-5% $-39	+0% $73	+5% $186	+10% $298
Rate	-1.0pp $232	-0.5pp $153	base $73	+0.5pp $-8	+1.0pp $-91

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,645
• Closing costs: $9,437
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2523 Topaz Hill Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1857	$2,950	$1.59	18d	1	0.12mi
2510 Green Jasper Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1561	$2,375	$1.52	45d	1	0.18mi
9518 Peridot Green Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1593	$1,886	$1.18	24d	1	0.90mi
9439 Ruby Mist Dr Rosharon, TX	5.0	2.5	2605	$2,276	$0.87	1d	1	1.18mi
9901 Kilkenny St Iowa Colony, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1735	$2,726	$1.57	1d	1	1.25mi
9423 Grand Spark Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1999	$2,600	$1.30	45d	1	1.33mi
1119 Toledo Bend Pass Rosharon, TX	5.0	3.0	2200	$2,500	$1.14	45d	1	1.45mi
8102 Buck Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$2,100	$1.49	45d	1	1.46mi
2314 Red Slate Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	4.0	2531	$2,850	$1.13	45d	1	1.46mi
8043 House Bank Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2512	$2,550	$1.02	20d	1	1.48mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,875	$1.66	45d	7	1.49mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$3,025	$1.75	0d	6	1.49mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $315,990 Active 369 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,990 Active 366 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,990 Active 365 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,990 Active 364 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,990 Active 363 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,990 Active 361 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,990 Active 360 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $315,990 Active 357 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $315,990 Active 356 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $315,990 Active 355 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $315,990 Active 352 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $315,990 Active 351 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $315,990 Active 350 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,990 Active 349 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,990 Active 348 DOM
16. 2025-06-18
    listed $315,990 Active 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,137
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,621
• − Property taxes: −$4,719
• − Insurance: −$1,573
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,731
• − Management: −$2,731
• − Depreciation: −$9,151
• Taxable loss: −$4,390
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,054
• After-tax cash flow: $1,933/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a spacious layout and is move-in ready, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Improves appearance and functionality
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Improves appearance and functionality ↑
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

Livability — Iowa Colony

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #757
• US rank: #13904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Iowa Colony, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 52,747
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-06-18 Listed $315,990 Zillow