4521 Merlot (Lot 102) St · Birch Bay, WA 98230

$537,950

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,064 sqft · Other · 90 Days on market

Built 2025 3,735 sqft lot $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.7/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MTT's highly anticipated Grand Opening of Whisper Lake Division II in Birch Bay/Blaine. Great Opportunity for Affordable New Construction home featuring 2064 sq ft plan has 4 Bedrooms 3 baths plus Bonus Room. Great room concept with Island kitchen, stainless appliances, quartz counters with full tile backsplash, walk-in pantry. One bedroom on main with 3/4 bath on main. Large primary bedroom with large shower, bath tub(optional upgrade)and walk-in closet. Full forced air heat and A/C. Great area walking distance to Birch Bay with restaurants and shopping. Great recreation areas are close, marinas, world class crabbing, fishing, boating, fantastic golf, hiking, beach combing are w/ in minute

Key facts

• Quartz counters
• Full tile backsplash
• Island kitchen

Tags

• ISLAND KITCHEN
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• QUARTZ COUNTERS
• FULL TILE BACKSPLASH
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• LARGE PRIMARY BEDROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $538k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $343k (36.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $306k (43.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $306k (43.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.3% vs local median 2.6% in Birch Bay — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#406 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blaine Elementary School (463 students, 54% FRL); Blaine Middle School (459 students, 54% FRL); Blaine High School (609 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 33% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 461 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $58k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $54k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$92k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($506k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $306,424 (43.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.73%
• DSCR: 0.52
• GRM: 14.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $207,582
• Equity at exit: $484,628

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.51×
• Total profit: $679,539
• Equity at exit: $1,045,119

Cash invested: $150,626 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98230

• Home prices YoY: 14.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 461
• Price-to-rent: 14.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,064 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,821
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$672 /mo · $8,069/yr
• Insurance: −$224
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$643
• Net cashflow: $-1,347

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,769

Max offer price $343,051

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-975	-5% $-1,161	+0% $-1,347	+5% $-1,533	+10% $-1,719
Rent	-10% $-1,589	-5% $-1,468	+0% $-1,347	+5% $-1,226	+10% $-1,105
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,076	-0.5pp $-1,210	base $-1,347	+0.5pp $-1,486	+1.0pp $-1,628

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $134,488
• Closing costs: $16,138
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4739 S Golf Course Dr Blaine, WA	3.0	2.5	2361	$3,000	$1.27	15d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-19
   price $537,950
3. 2026-02-12
   listed $536,950 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,771
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,134
• − Property taxes: −$8,069
• − Insurance: −$2,690
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,942
• − Management: −$2,942
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$15,649
• Taxable loss: −$26,254
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,301
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,862/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blaine School District
• NCES district ID: 5300570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,085
• Composite: 47.05/100
• National rank: #5128
• State rank: #120 of 291 in WA

Livability — Birch Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #406
• US rank: #16180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birch Bay, WA
• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 18,744
• Household income: $86,623
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 454.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.58%
• Current HPI: 868.68
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+0.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $537,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Listed $536,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid